Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[brihard]

Do you mind expanding on this?

I've been under the impression that equalization payments very much come from Alberta?

And that Alberta pays for more than it's fair share of CPP?

Equalization payments don’t ’come from’ provinces; it’s not a standalone system of raising money. It’s simply funded out of consolidated federal revenue. The arguments made about Alberta contributions to CPP specifically are because Alberta has had proportionately more people reaching the Yearly Maximum Pensionable Income and making full CPP contributions for the year- but that hits a cap, it doesn’t scale up indefinitely with income. More broadly it gets conflated with the higher average income and consequently the higher income taxes paid by Albertans because the population is younger and earning more money. But there’s no standalone levy on Alberta or Albertans for equalization.

 

[brihard]

Huh, on that timely note:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918434947674837355

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918488381262123517

 

[Remius]

Huh, on that timely note:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918434947674837355

https://twitter.com/x/status/1918488381262123517

Nice.

 

[brihard]

Nice.

Agreed. Good start if Smith is coming out of the blocks conciliatory.

 

[Blackadder1916]

So I've been hearing that for parties to get reimbursement for their election expenses they need to reach 10 percent support in a riding.

The LPC and CPC had no problems here, the Bloc fell short in 8 percent of ridings, and the NDP fell short in 89 percent of ridings they ran in.

I assume this means they are effectively bankrupt if they get penies on the dollar back from their election expenses.

Might be the determining factor for floor crossers or how long the NDP support the LPC, with them just trying to pay off debt.

It's not so simple as 10% in a riding. Reimbursement of election expenses is at two levels; Registered Parties and Candidates. What is eligible for reimbursement and the amount of any reimbursement is a whole other matter.

Part of the eligibility criteria is:

For Registered Parties:
The candidates endorsed by the party received at least:

• 2% of the valid votes cast in the election, or
• 5% of the valid votes cast in the electoral districts where the party endorsed a candidate

For Candidates:
A candidate's campaign is eligible for reimbursement if the candidate:

• was elected or received at least 10% of the valid votes, and

 

[Maxman1]

And if the Liberals were in the same situation, you wouldn't suspect some ... persuasion from on high? Especially if the coach's advisor was known for being ruthlessly cutthroat politically?

I'll admit it works no matter the party involved, but I'm guessing there may have been more than zero "voluntold" here - especially if brighter opportunities are (not) offered (out loud or in writing).

William Lyon MacKenzie King had to do that twice.

 

[Czech_pivo]

We can't know where NDP support went. If most NDP vote switches were to LPC and some LPC voters switched to CPC, it only looks like NDP -> CPC by the bottom line numbers (changes in vote counts) of a riding.

The 2 seats in Windsor previously were Lib/NDP and recently both went CPC - it was the NDP supporters in both cases that went to the CPC for the wins.

 

[Czech_pivo]

So I've been hearing that for parties to get reimbursement for their election expenses they need to reach 10 percent support in a riding.

The LPC and CPC had no problems here, the Bloc fell short in 8 percent of ridings, and the NDP fell short in 89 percent of ridings they ran in.

I assume this means they are effectively bankrupt if they get penies on the dollar back from their election expenses.

Might be the determining factor for floor crossers or how long the NDP support the LPC, with them just trying to pay off debt.

I would go for jugular and make a pitch to pick up all 7 NDPer’s and gut them Federally.
No seats at all in the House for the next 4-5yrs.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The 2 seats in Windsor previously were Lib/NDP and recently both went CPC - it was the NDP supporters in both cases that went to the CPC for the wins.

We can only guess that, mainly because a vote shift in the working class has been noticed in Canada and the US. But short of asking every voter what their previous vote and this one were, we can't know. We don't know whether votes jumped NDP->CPC, or cascaded NDP->LPC, LPC->CPC.

 

[Czech_pivo]

We can only guess that, mainly because a vote shift in the working class has been noticed in Canada and the US. But short of asking every voter what their previous vote and this one were, we can't know. We don't know whether votes jumped NDP->CPC, or cascaded NDP->LPC, LPC->CPC.

Having talked with a number of ex-primary and high school classmates via FB from Windsor, who I know were life long NDP supporters, they all voted for the CPC.
When I asked them why, it was because of the ‘anti-Trudeau’ bandwagon, the anti-immigrant bandwagon, cutting government waste, the anti ‘woke’ agenda, etc.
A fair number of these things were/are front and certain pillars of the NDP platform.

 

[Kirkhill]

Eight charts that show the scale of the Tories’ defeat

Local election numbers point to an unstoppable momentum, with Kemi Badenoch’s party the biggest losers

www.telegraph.co.uk

Why am I including this? Because the policies which Trudeau has been promoting for the last 10 years are the same policies that the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour have been promoting for the same period in the UK and Ireland.

Those policies in Ireland have seen the "street" rise up against the Establishment AND the IRA/Sinn Fein.

In the UK those policies have seen the rise of Nigel Farage, UKIP, Brexit and Reform.

And the local elections resulted in -

The Tories losing 635 councillors that were picked up by Reform (648).
Labour losing 198 councillors that were likely picked up by the Lib Dems (146) and Greens (41).

This was against a back drop of Labour deciding not to have elections in a bunch of council areas that they were likely to lose.

....

Reform is now projected as being in with a chance at the next General Election.
Tories and Labour, and Keir Starmer are all unpopular as are Net Zero policies.
All of which prompted Tony Blair to call time on the Davos project and note that governments need to bring the people with them.

It’s the anti net-zero, anti-woke Tony Blair – how was this man ever considered a progressive? | Zoe Williams

The former PM has form when it comes to pushing corporate interests and meeting populists halfway, writes Guardian columnist Zoe Williams

www.theguardian.com

...

Next step.

Finding out if Mark Carney is Keir Starmer, Tony Blair or Groucho Marx.



Personally I am hoping for a bit of Groucho. That leans towards that well known Canadian man of principle Mackenzie King.

Carney has got a good start. Pipelines if necessary but not necessarily pipelines.

Carney says pipelines 'not necessarily' among major projects to prioritize

Mark Carney says pipelines are “not necessarily” the large projects his government would prioritize.

nationalpost.com

....

To be clear - I would be happy if Carney turned out to be a pragmatist willing to ditch his previously espoused principles.

....

As to energy corridors - if Quebec doesn't want to play I would be happy to see the Churchill-Nelson route, the Grays Bay route, the Mackenzie Valley route and the Prince Rupert routes unblocked and developed.

That would release the Prairie economy to salt water and make it harder to block and control development.

...

Carney's route to success is likely to be in walking away from previous policies. The Liberals will be happy to go along if it means more sinecures in the public service.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Do you mind expanding on this?

I've been under the impression that equalization payments very much come from Alberta?

Equalization payments come from federal government general revenues, which are paid by individuals (mostly income and sales taxes) and corporations (mostly income tax) and other fees. Do people ever talk about how defence spending or health care spending or any other kind of federal spending "come from Alberta"?

And that Alberta pays for more than it's fair share of CPP?

There's no provincial "fair share".

Individuals pay income taxes and CPP premiums. Alberta skews young and high income, which makes its total contributions look high for the number of people. There is no practical way of distributing incomes throughout Canada so that the per capita average contribution per taxpayer is the same for all provinces, so this situation is always going to exist for one or more provinces.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Eight charts that show the scale of the Tories’ defeat

Local election numbers point to an unstoppable momentum, with Kemi Badenoch’s party the biggest losers

www.telegraph.co.uk

Why am I including this? Because the policies which Trudeau has been promoting for the last 10 years are the same policies that the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour have been promoting for the same period in the UK and Ireland.

Those policies in Ireland have seen the "street" rise up against the Establishment AND the IRA/Sinn Fein.

In the UK those policies have seen the rise of Nigel Farage, UKIP, Brexit and Reform.

And the local elections resulted in -

The Tories losing 635 councillors that were picked up by Reform (648).
Labour losing 198 councillors that were likely picked up by the Lib Dems (146) and Greens (41).

This was against a back drop of Labour deciding not to have elections in a bunch of council areas that they were likely to lose.

....

Reform is now projected as being in with a chance at the next General Election.
Tories and Labour, and Keir Starmer are all unpopular as are Net Zero policies.
All of which prompted Tony Blair to call time on the Davos project and note that governments need to bring the people with them.

Eight charts that show the scale of the Tories’ defeat

Local election numbers point to an unstoppable momentum, with Kemi Badenoch’s party the biggest losers

www.telegraph.co.uk

...

Next step.

Finding out if Mark Carney is Keir Starmer, Tony Blair or Groucho Marx.

View attachment 93094

Personally I am hoping for a bit of Groucho. That leans towards that well known Canadian man of principle Mackenzie King.

Carney has got a good start. Pipelines if necessary but not necessarily pipelines.

Carney says pipelines 'not necessarily' among major projects to prioritize

Mark Carney says pipelines are “not necessarily” the large projects his government would prioritize.

nationalpost.com

....

To be clear - I would be happy if Carney turned out to be a pragmatist willing to ditch his previously espoused principles.

....

As to energy corridors - if Quebec doesn't want to play I would be happy to see the Churchill-Nelson route, the Grays Bay route, the Mackenzie Valley route and the Prince Rupert routes unblocked and developed.

That would release the Prairie economy to salt water and make it harder to block and control development.

I’m hoping that Carney turns out to be a Paul Martin Jr, I respected him and think that he’s been highly underrated over the years.
I think Carney ‘gets it’, he’s a businessman, he’s looking for practical solutions to the problems placed in front of him.

 

[Altair]

It's not so simple as 10% in a riding. Reimbursement of election expenses is at two levels; Registered Parties and Candidates. What is eligible for reimbursement and the amount of any reimbursement is a whole other matter.

Part of the eligibility criteria is:

For Registered Parties:
The candidates endorsed by the party received at least:

• 2% of the valid votes cast in the election, or
• 5% of the valid votes cast in the electoral districts where the party endorsed a candidate

For Candidates:
A candidate's campaign is eligible for reimbursement if the candidate:

• was elected or received at least 10% of the valid votes, and

Thanks for the clarification

 

[MilEME09]

I’m hoping that Carney turns out to be a Paul Martin Jr, I respected him and think that he’s been highly underrated over the years.
I think Carney ‘gets it’, he’s a businessman, he’s looking for practical solutions to the problems placed in front of him.

I think we are in for 90s fiscal liberals, not 2010s feelings liberals

 

[RangerRay]

Andrew Coyne did suggest that if Carney didn’t play silly-bugger with allowing Poilievre a chance to get a seat in Parliament, that might suggest that Carney is too busy with the real work of the nation unlike his predecessor.

 

[Maxman1]

Andrew Coyne did suggest that if Carney didn’t play silly-bugger with allowing Poilievre a chance to get a seat in Parliament, that might suggest that Carney is too busy with the real work of the nation unlike his predecessor.

It would definitely set him apart from Trudeau, since they didn't follow the tradition and ran a Liberal candidate against Jagmeet in the 2019 Burnaby by-election.

2019 Burnaby South federal by-election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Blackadder1916]

It would definitely set him apart from Trudeau, since they didn't follow the tradition and ran a Liberal candidate against Jagmeet in the 2019 Burnaby by-election.

2019 Burnaby South federal by-election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

As far as I'm aware Carney didn't say that they wouldn't run a Liberal in the by-election just that he would call it. If no other candidates declare and register by 2:00 pm on the 19th day before voting day, then he would be elected by acclamation. In Singh's case, he wasn't the leader of the party that was the official opposition, just the leader of the third party; the NDP under Mulcair having slid to the third spot in the 2015 election.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I think we are in for 90s fiscal liberals, not 2010s feelings liberals

Hopefully the other difference will be an expanding military and military budget.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I would go for jugular and make a pitch to pick up all 7 NDPer’s and gut them Federally.
No seats at all in the House for the next 4-5yrs.

Assuming the Team Orange folks want to cross the floor.