Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[QV]

Exactly. Individual people make individual choices, and always have. If the flow has been, over the long term, relatively stable, then it would seem that the aggregate of those individual choices is not necessarily a commentary on the current political climate., much as one may hope.

It's a commentary on the system long-term, a slow bleed that has not been good for the country.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

That's not a good thing, Czech_pivo

It is just a thing. Facts are not, in and of themselves, good or bad.

The fact that it is persistent suggests much deeper roots of some type, rather than the introduction of some new variable.

 

[Czech_pivo]

That's not a good thing, Czech_pivo

Overall I agree with you that losing some of your population yearly is not a good thing.

If the trend, overall, has been steady - as @PPCLI Guy pointed out - then the 'issue' is neither good or bad overall, its just there, like Dandruff that sometimes is an embarrassment but overall you just deal with it.

Some people 'cross the border' back and forth a number of times in the life - school, job, retirement, whatever. Hell, Dougie Ford loves to prattle on and on about his years working/living in the US whenever he's on CNN having a lovefest with Wolfe Blitzer.....

 

[PPCLI Guy]

It's a commentary on the system long-term, a slow bleed that has in my opinion not been good for the country.

A valid personal opinion. But not a fact.

In my opinion, this is not a slow bleed. It is an overpressure valve used by individual Canadians and Americans to change their own circumstances, to the net benefit of both countries, as it provides options for individuals to choose. If an individual doesn't want to be Canadian anymore, I absolutely support them in that choice, and I am thankful that they have a readily available option.

 

[QV]

We're losing more high skill than we're gaining. This is a loss, and in my opinion not good for the country.

The number 1, 2, and 3 reasons for which people leave is directly a reflection on government policy direction. Something that can be adjusted to slow the bleed.

 

[Czech_pivo]

We're losing more high skill than we're gaining. This is a loss, and in my opinion not good for the country.

The number 1, 2, and 3 reasons for which people leave is directly a reflection on government policy direction. Something that can be adjusted to slow the bleed.

I know personally a fairly large number of these 'high skill' individuals who moved to the US. ALL of them still consider themselves to be Canadian, all still have family here and still regularly come back here to visit. The MAIN reason that they left was the chance to become a BIG fish in a BIG pond. When you have a skill, the drive or an ability to be extremely good at something, the majority of those type of people want to be challenged and they want to go to the biggest, largest arena that's available to them and prove to themselves just how good they believe that they are.
Not a single person that I know who moved to the US (or Europe in a few cases) left Canada because of Politics, or 'high' taxes, or whatever gripe you can think of - they moved because they wanted to see if they could prove themselves in an arena of 350 million vs 39 million......

 

[mariomike]

Hell, Dougie Ford loves to prattle on and on about his years working/living in the US whenever he's on CNN having a lovefest with Wolfe Blitzer.....

Our loss is their loss.

I kid. Gentle good humour/ humor with love ..... smile emoji.

 

[mariomike]

It's a commentary on the system long-term, a slow bleed that has not been good for the country.

Maybe Canada is a nice place to live. But ,USA is a nice place to make fame and fortune.

List of Canadian Americans - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[PrairieFella]

As long as we are aware it's a small rebound from the large drops.

Most of the Canadians who stopped going to the USA continue to not go.

I still wont go. Too many great places in Canada and Europe to visit fitst.

 

[PrairieFella]

1.3 does not create a shrinkage in isolation. We had half a million people come into the country last year on top of students and on top of the several hundred thousand illegals or about to become illegals. Those figures are more than enough to compensate for the low birth rate. So why are so many people leaving and are they professionals, white collar workers, skilled labourers?

Temporary residents are definitely leaving by the bushel. A lot of their visas arent being renewed and PGWPs have been heaviky slashed in many provinces.

 

[QV]

I know personally a fairly large number of these 'high skill' individuals who moved to the US. ALL of them still consider themselves to be Canadian, all still have family here and still regularly come back here to visit. The MAIN reason that they left was the chance to become a BIG fish in a BIG pond. When you have a skill, the drive or an ability to be extremely good at something, the majority of those type of people want to be challenged and they want to go to the biggest, largest arena that's available to them and prove to themselves just how good they believe that they are.
Not a single person that I know who moved to the US (or Europe in a few cases) left Canada because of Politics, or 'high' taxes, or whatever gripe you can think of - they moved because they wanted to see if they could prove themselves in an arena of 350 million vs 39 million......

Interesting anecdote, which supports the "jobs" reason. The data also lays out other reasons like healthcare. My point in all of this is Canada has wasted and continues to waste it's potential, and as long as it does so we will continue to bleed and stagnate comparatively. This can be minimized if not fixed altogether. We choose not to.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Its not all sunshine and roses currently....

Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation rate falls to lowest in 50 years, outside of Covid era

A drop in the unemployment rate helped provide some upside to what was an otherwise downbeat jobs report — but it was for all the wrong reasons.

www.cnbc.com

Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation rate falls to lowest in 50 years, outside of Covid era​

• June’s drop in the unemployment rate was because of an exodus of workers from the labor force.
• The labor force participation rate, which measures the working-age population of those either employed or looking for a job, fell to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Excluding the Covid-era jobs market, it was the lowest participation rate since June 1976.
• The labor force plummeted by 720,000 in June

On a year-over-year basis, the labor force is down by just over 1 million, while the level of the employed also has fallen by 1.06 million and the ranks of the unemployed have risen by 40,000. The employment-to-population ratio slipped to 59% in June, the lowest since October 2021. All that has happened while the unemployment rate has risen by just one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.2%.

“What really affects me is not so much the unemployment rate,” said Dan North, senior economist for North America at Allianz. “What’s an important development is the participation rate, and this is a big leg down in one month, and over the past year it’s a pretty big leg down. I think this is a more important number.”
“I hate to use the word ‘alarming,’” he added, but said the numbers are cause for concern.

To be sure, some economists said the June numbers seem out of sort. Specifically, they cited the large decline in leisure and hospitality workers as a sign that the data could be noisy.

But the participation numbers are part of a continuing trend.

“It was shocking to see 720,000 people stop looking for work entirely and the hospitality sector shed jobs,” wrote Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “It’s a better job market than a year ago, but opportunities are limited.”

 

[Good2Golf]

Dude, this is the same as it’s been for the last 30+yrs.
It’s the same as when I left Canada in 93.

Even from 2005-2015? Crazy!

 

[Infanteer]

Noting that the plural of anecdote is not data, here are some data that can perhaps help this conversation.

Economic and Social Reports - July 2025

none

www150.statcan.gc.ca

Despite these short-term fluctuations, a clear decline in permanent migration from Canada to the United States has been observed since the late 2000s. For example, the average number of Canadian-born individuals granted U.S. permanent residency fell from 15,600 in the late 2000s to 10,900 in the late 2010s—a 30% decline. Levels in 2022 and 2023 remained essentially unchanged from 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic.

...and here was my earlier reference:

Canada's Silent Brain Drain

Canada's Silent Brain Drain

economics.td.com

 

[Czech_pivo]

Interesting anecdote, which supports the "jobs" reason. The data also lays out other reasons like healthcare. My point in all of this is Canada has wasted and continues to waste it's potential, and as long as it does so we will continue to bleed and stagnate comparatively. This can be minimized if not fixed altogether. We choose not to.

Its not the 'jobs' reason - these individuals all had fantastic careers/opportunities here - but - they wanted to test their skills/abilities in an environment that is 10X the size of ours. Unless you've lived/worked in the US or have travelled extensively through the country then I don't think you can understand the appeal to be 'the best' in a work environment that is 10X the size of anything we have here.

 

[ArmyRick]

Big point being missed here.

We should have/should be setting Canada to become the place well educated and entrepreneurial Americans flock to for opportunities.

They won't.

We have a gazillion reasons to encourage them not to come here and we make it very easy for people to say good bye to here.

I do know a lot of very good smart, well educated and hard working people who choose to go to the USA for better opportunities. The fact that my son is eyeing up a bunch of engineering schools in the states is personally very concerning.

 

[mariomike]

- but - they wanted to test their skills/abilities in an environment that is 10X the size of ours.

Nothing new new about people traveling from small to large population centers for employment opportunities.

 

[ArmyRick]

Nothing new about people who keep ignoring a thousand knife cuts until the whole system is dead.

Jobs leaving, Smart and talented people leaving, Businesses leaving or closing, money leaving (that happens in multiple ways), investors looking elsewhere.

Rather than dismiss all these little symptoms as nothing burgers, how about we RAISE the bar by saying how do we entice more job creation (non government), recruit the talented people of the world, get more businesses to open and encourage others to come back, get investors to actually invest in Canada, and lets get foreign money to come here (and make it Canadian bucks).

Its like dealing with one of my relatives who choose to ignore the symptoms of his obvious cancer until it was too late to do anything about it.

 

[PrairieFella]

Something that crossed my mind is we should really stop comparing ourselves to the USA in all regards. Its not a very apt comparison imo. Our comparables are the UK, France, Italy, S Korea, etc. Thats not to say we shouldnt aspire to rise to the economic prowess of the global hegemon, but there are serious global structural impediments to compete 1-for-1. The biggest one that comes to mind atm being the Americans basically have the infinite money glitch on by being the global reserve currency for nigh a century. That is catching up to them now but it has served them well since the 40s.

 

[Altair]

Something that crossed my mind is we should really stop comparing ourselves to the USA in all regards. Its not a very apt comparison imo. Our comparables are the UK, France, Italy, S Korea, etc. Thats not to say we shouldnt aspire to rise to the economic prowess of the global hegemon, but there are serious global structural impediments to compete 1-for-1. The biggest one that comes to mind atm being the Americans basically have the infinite money glitch on by being the global reserve currency for nigh a century. That is catching up to them now but it has served them well since the 40s.

Doesn't help the narrative to compare us to our actual peers.