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Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

This article is about the corrosive effects of the Tony Blair premiership in the UK and the stasis resulting from his promotion of what the Brits call Quangos (stand alone non-governmental organisations with regulatory powers) and his preference for subordinating parliament to the courts and the civll service.

It is my view that this particular philosophy has infected all the Westminster polities including ours.

The article addresses how only the authors of the system can correct the system. In the UK that is Labour. In Canada that is the Liberals.


"Is there any reason to expect Andy Burnham (assuming it is he) to break the pattern? Will he, like his predecessors, get in promising all sorts of things – welfare reforms, speedier deportations, more houses – only to find his proposals blocked by our bureaucracy and courts?

"Not necessarily. He starts with advantages that his predecessors lacked. First, and most obviously, he will not discover the problem while on the job, since almost everyone in politics now recognises it. Second, because he is taking over from a Labour prime minister, he will not come to office convinced that every problem stems from Tory idiocy. Third, being Labour, he can more easily repeal the most problematic laws.

"A Conservative ministry that set out to scrap the Equality Act or the Human Rights Act would be accused of bullying minorities. Labour would be trusted to remove the objectionable portions of those laws, perhaps replacing them with statutes that had similar names, but that did not give such huge powers to the deep state."

....

Arguably Mark Carney has already started treading this path. He is among the most Conservative Prime Ministers of my life time. He is not repealing laws so much as gutting them and working "over, under, around and through" them.

...

For me this is the most interesting part of the article because it resonates with my view of our Canadian problem.

"Even as I write, I sense the impatience of some readers. Few people are interested in process and, because of our media culture, we never blame civil servants, only politicians. You doubt me? OK. Can you name any of the officials involved in the only event at No 10 during lockdown that met the ordinary definition of a “party”, and which happened while Johnson was 40 miles away? Precisely.

"We are governed, not by the carousel of party politicians, but by the permanent apparat. That apparat might not be partisan, but it does have corporate opinions. It is safetyist, interventionist, eco-obsessed, Europhile, high-spending, woke and invulnerable to public opinion.

"We see its structural biases in every Whitehall ministry. Treasury officials ignore the dynamic effects of tax cuts. Home Office employees hate deporting illegal immigrants: it was their trade union that took the Rwanda scheme to court. The Education Department is slavering at the opportunity to replace Michael Gove’s knowledge-based curriculum with something less demanding and more anti-colonialist. The Business and Trade Department longs to sign up to EU rules. All subordinate their notional departmental goals to their twin ruling principles: net zero and DEI.

"Even more radical was the Blairite juridical revolution. In 2003, seemingly from no higher motive than his dislike of the “men in tights”, Tony Blair announced that the Lord Chancellor would no longer control judicial appointments, and that a Supreme Court would be created. On paper, the Lord Chancellor’s role had indeed been anomalous. He was a member of all three branches of government: head of the judiciary, Speaker of the House of Lords and a member of Cabinet.

"Yet, precisely because that combination was hard to justify, successive Lord Chancellors were meticulously neutral in their judicial appointments, promoting on merit. Once their function was taken over by a new Judicial Appointments Commission, the door was open to political favouritism, usually in the name of DEI, which eventually became formally recognised as part of the Commission’s remit.

"Result? We now have a troop of activist judges who legislate from the bench. Labour ministers are as frustrated as their Tory predecessors by the determination of immigration tribunals to overturn repatriation orders on the flimsiest of pretexts. They are frustrated, too, at the readiness of courts to stop people building runways, power stations, even houses.

"Eventually, Starmer himself, the very embodiment of a Doughty Street activist lawyer, came to see what was wrong: “For too long, blockers have had the upper hand in legal challenges – using our court processes to frustrate growth.” Naturally he, not the judges, took the rap."

“Only Nixon can go to China.”
 
The main group that are going to get hurt in this is the speculator.
They are exactly the people making the most noise. They are analogous to people actively trading in volatile markets who get caught out by gaps between their liquidity and their obligations. People who own homes they live in (and who are not subject to conditions requiring them to frequently move) are in the same position as people who invest and hold financial instruments. If you don't sell during a downturn, you don't actually lose anything. If you already hold a mortgage, your renewals are mainly going to depend on keystone interest rates and your income relative to amount owed.

Some people have been energetically arguing that something has to be done about residential real estate prices. The crux of the problem is too much demand for too little supply. The obvious main release point is to reduce demand. So that happens, and prices fall (about 10% in the hottest markets), and now some people are energetically arguing that it's a problem.

There isn't enough untapped investment capital or idle construction capacity to solve this on the supply side of the equation. Not with most of what passes for government fixated on mega-projects and makeovers.
 
They are exactly the people making the most noise. They are analogous to people actively trading in volatile markets who get caught out by gaps between their liquidity and their obligations. People who own homes they live in (and who are not subject to conditions requiring them to frequently move) are in the same position as people who invest and hold financial instruments. If you don't sell during a downturn, you don't actually lose anything. If you already hold a mortgage, your renewals are mainly going to depend on keystone interest rates and your income relative to amount owed.

Some people have been energetically arguing that something has to be done about residential real estate prices. The crux of the problem is too much demand for too little supply. The obvious main release point is to reduce demand. So that happens, and prices fall (about 10% in the hottest markets), and now some people are energetically arguing that it's a problem.

There isn't enough untapped investment capital or idle construction capacity to solve this on the supply side of the equation. Not with most of what passes for government fixated on mega-projects and makeovers.
I think you and others here have done a good job articulating who gains and loses from the status quo, and from a hypothetical major correction in the market. I don’t see much disagreement here on the basic facts of this.

Stepping back and taking a societal view, a big part of the problem I think is that, following the massive run ups of say a decade ago, we now have a whole generation that has entered the workforce and is at the right place in life to be starting families, but with the now much inflated housing prices, they face massive, massive barriers to entry. The inaccessibility of ownership in many places leaves them caught in the rent trap, which has itself inflated considerably.

It’s not good, generally, to have up and coming generations cut off from the dream everyone had up to their parents and which their parents still believe in and express to them. It’s harmful to social and political cohesion to have that large a cohort seeing the ladders pulled up behind the last crew who climbed…

Stagnant housing prices coupled with inflation will eventually reduce this problem, but on a generational time frame. Not soon enough to help the young couples in their mid to late 20s, nor those coming up behind. Or even the tail end millennials who took longer to get well paid careers established.

A major correction downwards would have an impact, but it would need a major trigger of a lot of people trying to sell inflated supply into a market that has seen demand destruction from prices too high for too long. I don’t know what such a trigger would be. And How much would such a major correction actually hit livable family residences versus bachelor or shoebox condos that nobody’s starting a family in anyway? The housing market is far from monolithic…

Damned if I know how Canada balances the policy challenges here - affordability, social cohesion, reliance on home equity, etc etc…
 
I think you and others here have done a good job articulating who gains and loses from the status quo, and from a hypothetical major correction in the market. I don’t see much disagreement here on the basic facts of this.

Stepping back and taking a societal view, a big part of the problem I think is that, following the massive run ups of say a decade ago, we now have a whole generation that has entered the workforce and is at the right place in life to be starting families, but with the now much inflated housing prices, they face massive, massive barriers to entry. The inaccessibility of ownership in many places leaves them caught in the rent trap, which has itself inflated considerably.

It’s not good, generally, to have up and coming generations cut off from the dream everyone had up to their parents and which their parents still believe in and express to them. It’s harmful to social and political cohesion to have that large a cohort seeing the ladders pulled up behind the last crew who climbed…

Stagnant housing prices coupled with inflation will eventually reduce this problem, but on a generational time frame. Not soon enough to help the young couples in their mid to late 20s, nor those coming up behind. Or even the tail end millennials who took longer to get well paid careers established.

A major correction downwards would have an impact, but it would need a major trigger of a lot of people trying to sell inflated supply into a market that has seen demand destruction from prices too high for too long. I don’t know what such a trigger would be. And How much would such a major correction actually hit livable family residences versus bachelor or shoebox condos that nobody’s starting a family in anyway? The housing market is far from monolithic…

Damned if I know how Canada balances the policy challenges here - affordability, social cohesion, reliance on home equity, etc etc…
So a major crash is good in the long term. I don't disagree. As for the population decline, becoming a major energy provider with evident potential for growth and stability over the long term and that will correct itself. Keep the immigration doors closed whilst determining the quality and skills needed and whilst building the infrastructure and then let them come
 
On housing market, I think if it can be managed, we hopefully wild swings up and down. If the market doesn't swing wildly up, it won't hurt so much when it crashes down.

Trudeau's comments in 2021 "interest rates are at a historic low, Glen..." and then encourage people to get mortgages was not good.
 
I think you and others here have done a good job articulating who gains and loses from the status quo, and from a hypothetical major correction in the market. I don’t see much disagreement here on the basic facts of this.

Stepping back and taking a societal view, a big part of the problem I think is that, following the massive run ups of say a decade ago, we now have a whole generation that has entered the workforce and is at the right place in life to be starting families, but with the now much inflated housing prices, they face massive, massive barriers to entry. The inaccessibility of ownership in many places leaves them caught in the rent trap, which has itself inflated considerably.

It’s not good, generally, to have up and coming generations cut off from the dream everyone had up to their parents and which their parents still believe in and express to them. It’s harmful to social and political cohesion to have that large a cohort seeing the ladders pulled up behind the last crew who climbed…

Stagnant housing prices coupled with inflation will eventually reduce this problem, but on a generational time frame. Not soon enough to help the young couples in their mid to late 20s, nor those coming up behind. Or even the tail end millennials who took longer to get well paid careers established.

A major correction downwards would have an impact, but it would need a major trigger of a lot of people trying to sell inflated supply into a market that has seen demand destruction from prices too high for too long. I don’t know what such a trigger would be. And How much would such a major correction actually hit livable family residences versus bachelor or shoebox condos that nobody’s starting a family in anyway? The housing market is far from monolithic…

Damned if I know how Canada balances the policy challenges here - affordability, social cohesion, reliance on home equity, etc etc…
Not sure if it’s accurate in saying ‘mid to late 20’s’ when buying a first home today.

The median age is 29.9yrs in Canada to get married and the average age for a male is 32.2yrs and for a female it’s 30.8yrs. Most people wait until they are married to buy their first home. Which put the most into their early 30s.

I was a month shy of turning 34 when we bought our first house. That was after supporting my wife going back to do her graduate work to become a SLP. We lived in a small, older studio apartment, had no car and lived frugally during that time.

But with that being said, a solution going forward does need to be found. Building homes that provide shelter, affordability and the allowing of the building of equity - with the realistic expectation that the first house won’t be 2,000sq ft in size with an on-suite with a rain shower, 14ft granite island with 12ft ceilings throughout, oversized double garage with a jacuzzi, inground heated salt water pool with a waterfall and a stone pizza oven out back.
It should be 1200-1300sq ft, with 3 bdrms, 1.5 bath, single car garage with a double car driveway and an unfinished basement on a 40-45ft wide by 110ft deep lot.
Just my 2cents.
 
Damned if I know how Canada balances the policy challenges here - affordability, social cohesion, reliance on home equity, etc etc…
A large cohort is aging out and transferring away its accumulated assets into end-of-life medical care, long-term care, various donations and bequests and whatnot while they are alive to enjoy giving, and inheritances. That all happens without government involvement, unless governments decide they have better uses for transferred assets than those who, for now, receive them.
 
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