Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[HavokFour]

Question; with an NDP that suddenly has a bit of room opening on the left to claw their way back, what compelling case are the Greens able to make outside of the real hard environmentalists? It seems that they largely overlap the progressive left wing, and that most voters in that space probably view NDP as a necessary counterbalance to an LPC that’s moving back to center.

To be quite honest we'll have to wait and see what happens, depending on who wins. Morrice would definitely be the death of the "Tory on a bike".

 

[brihard]

To be quite honest we'll have to wait and see what happens, depending on who wins. Morrice would definitely be the death of the "Tory on a bike".

Sorry, “Tory on a bike”?

 

[HavokFour]

Sorry, “Tory on a bike”?

Green Toryism, or Elizabeth May's brand of the Green Party. Morrice is solidly further to the left of her.

EDIT: She put her thumb on the scale last time that saw Anamie Paul become leader to avoid Dimitri Lascaris, who ran on an eco-socialist platform from getting the job. Either way it was going to end in disaster at the time regardless of who won, and it did.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Facebook.comIn terms of what Canadians actually care about, the economy, Canada continues to show signs of resilience. And this is in the face of tariffs.

Per the last paragraph it looks like the resilience comes in the form of a few

Imports reached a new high even though nine of 11 sections declined, because one category—electronic and electrical equipment—rose enough to outweigh most of the weakness elsewhere. The surplus therefore reflected several unusually large movements rather than uniformly stronger activity across Canada’s full export and import base.

Should that really be considered resilience?

 

[Altair]

Per the last paragraph it looks like the resilience comes in the form of a few




Should that really be considered resilience?

Our imports of goods dropped in most categories, and the category it did increase was computer components for AI data centers.

So take out data center imports, yes, include data center imports, still yes.

Exports grew at double the pace of imports, again, in the face of US tariffs. That's incredible resiliance.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Our imports of goods dropped in most categories, and the category it did increase was computer components for AI data centers.

So take out data center imports, yes, include data center imports, still yes.

Exports grew at double the pace of imports, again, in the face of US tariffs. That's incredible resiliance.

I'm not denying the good news, the June trade numbers were positive. Just looking at calling the broader economy incredibly resilient.

The 0.4% vs. 0.2% monthly growth you're pointing to is a 0.2 percentage point difference, I don't see that as evidence that exports suddenly surged relative to imports. The article we're talking about says the result was driven by unusually large movements in a handful of categories rather than broad based strength.

Google says a big part of the export increase came from gold/metal and mineral products, while energy exports actually fell 10%. Meanwhile the main increase in imports was data-centre equipment. That's potentially a good investment for Canada's future productivity, but importing AI hardware isn't the same thing as Canada producing and exporting higher value technology. I also see a lot of articles pushing back against these data centres.

Looking at currency - the Canadian dollar weakened substantially, which increased the Canadian dollar value of trade even though both exports and imports fell in USD terms.

It seems like a trade surplus by itself isn't a measure of overall economic health. It just tells us exports exceeded imports. It doesn't tell us whether productivity, manufacturing, wages, investments (ENB just closed at $72.71 a share, ouch!) employment, or your favorite, GDP, are improving.

I'd call the June figures you posted encouraging and evidence that Canadian trade has shown some resilience despite Trumps tariff pressure. I'd hesitate to call them incredible economic resilience when the article itself says the surplus was driven by a few unusually large categories rather than broad based improvement (as mentioned).

 

[dapaterson]

Elizabeth May is more of a fill_in_the_blank on a bender than a credible political party... I have the impression she's waiting to be appointed to the chamber of (not so sober) second thought.

 

[Altair]

I'm not denying the good news, the June trade numbers were positive. Just looking at calling the broader economy incredibly resilient.

The 0.4% vs. 0.2% monthly growth you're pointing to is a 0.2 percentage point difference, I don't see that as evidence that exports suddenly surged relative to imports. The article we're talking about says the result was driven by unusually large movements in a handful of categories rather than broad based strength.

When the canadian economy fell into recession by a sliver of a hair, certain sections of the media could not stop talking about Canada being in recession.

But be that as it may, you're right. Things fluctuate from month to month. But good news, this is the 4th straight month of posting a trade surplus. So it's not an outlier.

Google says a big part of the export increase came from gold/metal and mineral products, while energy exports actually fell 10%. Meanwhile the main increase in imports was data-centre equipment. That's potentially a good investment for Canada's future productivity, but importing AI hardware isn't the same thing as Canada producing and exporting higher value technology. I also see a lot of articles pushing back against these data centres.

I don't get it.

People say we need piplelines to export oil and gas. Fair enough. Exporting raw resources for prosperity.

Yet, when we export gold/metal and minerals, also raw resources, we get talk of "higher value technology".

So which is it? Can we export raw resources, oil and gas plus gold and metals, for prosperity, or must we focus on processed resources, including in there oil and gas along with gold and metals, for higher value goods?

Looking at currency - the Canadian dollar weakened substantially, which increased the Canadian dollar value of trade even though both exports and imports fell in USD terms.

Lowering the CAD is a good buffer against tariffs.

Remember this post of mine back in Nov 2025? You even gave me an insightful response.

In a high tariff environment where the Canadian economy needs to export even more to make up for the shortfall in exports to the USA, a 70 cent dollar works much better than a 80 cent dollar.

Put another way, tariffs make it more expensive for Americans to import Canadian goods, but a 70 cent Canadian dollar makes it cheaper.

80 cent dollar just makes whatever tariffs bite more, because instead of something that costs 70 dollars, plus tariffs, will cost 80 dollars, plus tariffs.

I'm not saying that article is wrong, but I will say 2021 did not have the Americans tariffing everything and us needing to shift our trade around internationally in 2025 on their radar.

What is the CAD at? 71c to the USD.

It seems like a trade surplus by itself isn't a measure of overall economic health. It just tells us exports exceeded imports. It doesn't tell us whether productivity, manufacturing, wages, investments (ENB just closed at $72.71 a share, ouch!) employment, or your favorite, GDP, are improving.

Except those other metrics, Manufacturing, wages, GDP, are all improving in lockstep. If it was just this, or just GDP improving, or just employment going up, or just manufacturing increasing, sure, not a great picture of overall economic health. But all of them? Yeah, Canada is doing alright. Especially compared to the USA which everyone seems to think is doing gangbusters, but are really slipping right now as tariffs and high energy prices are acting as a major source of drag.

I'd call the June figures you posted encouraging and evidence that Canadian trade has shown some resilience despite Trumps tariff pressure. I'd hesitate to call them incredible economic resilience when the article itself says the surplus was driven by a few unusually large categories rather than broad based improvement (as mentioned).

Again, many months, not just June.

 

[RangerRay]

With aviators.

Arguably Canadian politics has taken a downwards turn correlated with the decrease in serious federal politicians with moustaches. Have we had one since Layton?

Didn’t Trudeau sport a cheesy stache from time to time?

 

[brihard]

Didn’t Trudeau sport a cheesy stache from time to time?

Sorry, I should have said ‘proper’ moustaches.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Nope.
The Feds are sending message to Dougie that the province doesn’t have authority over the airport.

Latest from PMMC the Tease ...

Carney suggests island airport jets not nixed in perpetuity: 'forever is a long time'

Ontario Premier Doug Ford had pitched a plan to expand Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport to allow jets to land, framing it as a way to boost the economy

www.travelweek.ca

 

[Halifax Tar]

Latest from PMMC the Tease ...

Carney suggests island airport jets not nixed in perpetuity: 'forever is a long time'

Ontario Premier Doug Ford had pitched a plan to expand Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport to allow jets to land, framing it as a way to boost the economy

www.travelweek.ca

lol Dude speaks like Nova Scotians drive, all over the F-ing place.

 

[Altair]

lol Dude speaks like Nova Scotians drive, all over the F-ing place.

He wants to win the toronto by election. After that he likely gives Ford his blessing.

 

[Halifax Tar]

He wants to win the toronto by election. After that he likely gives Ford his blessing.

Sounds par for the course.

 

[Altair]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-08-04/canada-turns-trump-s-tariff-hostility-into-an-economic-opportunity

When wildfire smoke from Canada enveloped the northeastern US a few weeks ago, President Donald Trump seized on the extreme weather he claims is a climate change hoax to announce 50% tariffs on cheese, hockey sticks and some other 500 goods that America imports from its neighbor worth about $20 billion, or 2% of bilateral trade, last year.

Never mind that the outburst against the largest foreign supplier of electricity and hydroelectricity to the US is an apparent violation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement that Trump negotiated during his first term and called it the “largest, fairest, most balanced and modern trade agreement ever achieved.” Yet, he declined to renew the pact July 1. Depending on what you read, Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney is either a stoic leader fighting an uphill battle or one who has run out of options. The New York Times headlined its analysis "Trump is Squeezing Canada. Don't Expect Carney to Roll Over.” The Wall Street Journal, on the contrary, said “Carney Has Tried the Carrot and Stick With Trump--But Neither Is Working.

Obscured by these prevailing narratives is what money is doing. The US’s largest trading partner behind Mexico is poised to attract record investment from outside its borders after foreigners poured C$256 billion ($183 billion) into Canada’s stocks and bonds in the 12-months ended May 31, rivaling mid-2022 for the most since data initially was collected in 1990. Companies spent more than $44 billion during the second quarter acquiring Canadian assets, the country’s largest such investment from overseas since 2007.

The bullishness is being rewarded, with signs that Canada’s economy is starting to accelerate. A preliminary estimate released Friday suggested real gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 3.4% between April and June, according to Statistics Canada’s industry-based output data. The report came a day after the US Bureau of Economic Analysis said GDP growth in America slowed to 1.5% for the same period, falling below the 2% median estimate of more than 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

At a point when the developed world is gripped with rising cost-of-living pressures, the Maple Leaf nation of 41 million people has the most significant decline in core inflation rates compared to the US and the 21-country euro zone.

More good news for the economy. For everyone preaching patience and to let Carney cook, we are beginning to see the results.