Mark Carney cranks up immigration while pretending not to
The previous Liberal immigration plan called for 365,000 permanent residents in 2027. Carney's plan increases that target to 380,000 annually.
Slight increase, but the 380,000 figure doesn't tell the whole story. The government has also announced additional measures to accelerate the transition of existing temporary residents and protected persons to permanent residency:
- Up to 115,000 protected persons and their dependants
- Up to 33,000 temporary workers
- A further time limited initiative providing permanent residency opportunities for people already living in Canada
Budget 2026 puts the broader transition initiative at up to 200,000 temporary residents by the end of 2027.
[These are additional permanent-residency admissions, but an important distinction is that these people are already in Canada. They are not 200,000 additional newcomers arriving at the border]
Now consider the
temporary resident targets for 2027:
- 50,000 through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program.
- 170,000 through the International Mobility Program.
- 150,000 international students.
That's another 370,000 temporary resident arrivals - many of whom we know don't like to leave when their time us up.
Canada's published targets are:
- 380,000 permanent resident admissions.
- 370,000 new temporary resident arrivals.
750,000 planned admissions and arrivals in 2027, before accounting for visitors and other categories outside these targets.
Canada is still bringing in substantial numbers of temporary workers and international students while simultaneously trying to reduce its temporary population to below 5% of the national population. The government also intends to transition up to 200,000 people already here into permanent residency. That means a significant number of people currently classified as temporary residents will become permanent residents rather than leave Canada.
The big questions are whether housing, healthcare, infrastructure and public services can accommodate the population growth. Almost a million per year. Another question is whether the government has a credible plan to manage temporary residents when their permits expire.