Liberal Party of Canada Leadership

[Journeyman]

....can you imagine Justin Trudeau making the complex socio-economic policy argument....

  :not-again:    Not even with Jeff Dunham's hand up his butt.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The NP weighs on on McGuinty as potential Liberal Party of Canada leader. Looks like the Liberals may have to decide between the "least worst" choice in the high profile division, or actually do the work and pick a leader with some substance who can carry out the long deferred work of party renewal. Of course, Kelly McParland nails it in the last paragraph:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/10/18/kelly-mcparland-mcguinty-rumours-move-liberals-from-fantasy-to-farce/

What Kelly McParland gets wrong is that, in 2015, the Liberals need Quebec ~ Ontario will have to wait until 2019. Quebec is where the next Liberal leader has to meet and beat Thomas Mulcair. By custom, a custom to which I expect the Liberals to adhere, the next leader should be a French Canadian so I suspect it is one of Cauchon, Coderre, Garneau or Trudeau

   

   

   

Martin Cauchon                  Denis Coderre                          Marc Garneau                  Justin Trudeau
Age: 50                              Age: 49                                    Age: 63                            Age: 40

My guess is that a team is in place to fiance M. Garneau's bid, I suspect neither Cauchon nor Coderre have much support but I will be surprised if they (one or the other, maybe both) don't give it a try, if only to make their place for next time.

M. Trudeau has the charisma, M. Garneau has the gravitas, each is deficient in what the other has, but I cannot believe that a good PR person cannot create some excitement around M. Garneau, after all he was orbiting the earth when M. Trudeau was a schoolboy.

 

[GAP]

Or they could go with Marth Hall-Findly.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Denis Coderre will make an announcement today ~ probably to say he is leaving federal Liberal caucus to enter municipal politics.

 

[GAP]

Denis Coderre will make an announcement today ~ probably to say he is leaving federal Liberal caucus to enter municipal politics.

It's not like there isn't any vacancies after the inquiry.....besides, that's where the money is.....

 

[Edward Campbell]

Apparently a new contender, Toronto lawyer David Berschi what has pre-launched his campaign with this YouTube video.

And here is his website.


Edit: typo

 

[Edward Campbell]

What Kelly McParland gets wrong is that, in 2015, the Liberals need Quebec ~ Ontario will have to wait until 2019. Quebec is where the next Liberal leader has to meet and beat Thomas Mulcair. By custom, a custom to which I expect the Liberals to adhere, the next leader should be a French Canadian so I suspect it is one of Cauchon, Coderre, Garneau or Trudeau

 

       

   

Denis Bertshi                              Martin Cauchon                          Marc Garneau                      Justin Trudeau
Age: 52                                    Age: 50                                      Age: 63                            Age: 40

My guess is that a team is in place to fiance M. Garneau's bid, I suspect neither Cauchon nor Coderre have much support but I will be surprised if they (one or the other, maybe both) don't give it a try, if only to make their place for next time.

M. Trudeau has the charisma, M. Garneau has the gravitas, each is deficient in what the other has, but I cannot believe that a good PR person cannot create some excitement around M. Garneau, after all he was orbiting the earth when M. Trudeau was a schoolboy.

Updated chart: Denis Coderre is out and Denis Bertshi is in.

 

[a_majoor]

While I have no idea how broad or deep her campaign is, Deborah Coyne is also a contender for the Liberal Leadership: deborahcoyne.ca/

I have also heard Martha Hall Findley has paid off her campaign debts; she may well be throwing her hat int he ring as well.

I wonder if there will be an ABJ movement among the various Liberal party delegates opposed to the idea of a coronation?

 

[JorgSlice]

While I have no idea how broad or deep her campaign is, Deborah Coyne is also a contender for the Liberal Leadership: deborahcoyne.ca/

I have also heard Martha Hall Findley has paid off her campaign debts; she may well be throwing her hat int he ring as well.

I wonder if there will be an ABJ movement among the various Liberal party delegates opposed to the idea of a coronation?

Coyne... Findley...

While I'm a person who's skin starts to burn with the mention of Liberal(s) or NDP(s)... If Ms. Coyne and Ms. Findley put their gloves on and step into the ring and Libs somehow reclaim their lost braincells over the decades then Mr. Trudeau will stand no chance. In the end it'll look like 1) Coyne/Findley 2) Coyne/Findley 3) Trudeau (I was thinking /Garneau but then I realize the messiah complex The Reds have for Justin is just too strong).

However, I still fear that they'll basically hand Mr. Trudeau leadership and doom their party for years to come.

 

[Dissident]

However, I still fear that they'll basically hand Mr. Trudeau leadership and doom their party for years to come.

Sadly from my unscientific poll of the left leaning people around me, they are all ready to support JT as their only real hope to de throne the Conservative in the next (or the one after that) election. This was also reflected in a poll from the National Post I saw over the last couple of days (can't find it right now.)

So the Liberal party could do very well, if you consider getting a majority government the measuring stick, under Trudea leadership. /me shudders. Canada as a whole on the other hand...

Edit: The good Mr. Campbell has already referenced the poll in the 2015 election thread here: http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/101972/post-1184613.html#msg1184613

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Twitterverse is reporting that Mark Carney has said, definitively, that he has no interests in running for political office. Another Liberal wet dream comes to naught.

 

[a_majoor]

And now, entering the ring is Reform (er, Liberal) candidate Martha Hall Findley:

http://www.russ-campbell.net/2012/11/second-time-lucky-hall-findlay-enters.html

Second time lucky? Hall Findlay enters Liberal leadership race

Former MP Martha Hall Find­lay has for­mally an­nounced in Cal­gary she’s en­ter­ing the fed­eral Lib­eral lead­er­ship cam­paign. This is the sec­ond time since en­ter­ing pol­i­tics as a can­di­date in the 2004 fed­eral elec­tion for the On­tario rid­ing of New­mar­ket-Au­rora, that Ms. Hall Fin­lay, 53, has sought to lead the fed­eral Grits.

Here’s the text of her launch speech.

In­ter­est­ingly, the for­mer high-pro­file Lib­eral MP chose to make her an­nounce­ment in the heart of true-blue Tory coun­try and not in her old rid­ing that she lost in 2011 to Con­ser­v­a­tive MP Chungsen Le­ung. She’s also cho­sen Stephen Carter to run her cam­paign. He’s cred­ited with lead­ing the suc­cess­ful lead­er­ship and provin­cial elec­tion cam­paigns of Al­berta Pro­gres­sive Con­ser­v­a­tive Pre­mier Al­i­son Red­ford.

Hall Fin­lay has had an up-and-down po­lit­i­cal ca­reer: she lost the New­mar­ket-Au­rora rid­ing in the 2004 elec­tion to Con­ser­v­a­tive Be­linda Stronach; she was elim­i­nated af­ter the first bal­lot of the 2006 lead­er­ship race and threw her sup­port be­hind the in­ef­fec­tive Stéphane Dion; she won the rid­ing of Wil­low­dale in a fed­eral by-elec­tion in 2008 and was re-elected in the gen­eral elec­tion later that year, but lost her seat in the 2011 vote.

She joins MP Justin Trudeau, lawyer Deb­o­rah Coyne, Van­cou­ver Crown pros­e­cu­tor Alex Bur­ton, Ot­tawa lawyer David Bertschi and for­mer B.C. Lib­eral party pres­i­dent David Merner in a con­test that will con­clude in April 2013.

Frankly, I don’t think Hall Fin­lay has much of a chance. To be­gin with, she has not demon­strated a solid record of win­ning elec­tions. More­over, she’s tied closely to Dion’s los­ing cam­paign plat­form in the 2008 gen­eral elec­tion—Hall Fin­lay was the party’s plat­form out­reach chair. And, fi­nally, she lacks grav­i­tas.

Oh, she’s well ed­u­cated and seems like a very nice per­son, but I don’t see her tak­ing hold of the Lib­eral cau­cus. Nor do I see her chair­ing a G8 meet­ing or rep­re­sent­ing Canada at other in­ter­na­tional con­fer­ences.

I must say, though, I was more than a lit­tle im­pressed with Hall Find­lay’s re­search pa­per call­ing for the dis­man­tling of Canada’s sup­ply man­age­ment, some­thing I’d call a rare bit of Canada-first po­si­tion­ing by a politi­cian. Here’s the Na­tional Post’s John Ivi­son’s take on Hall Fin­lay’s pa­per:

As Martha Hall Find­lay reeled off the rea­sons why Canada’s sup­ply man­age­ment sys­tem should be dis­man­tled, you could al­most hear time’s winged char­iot chang­ing gears in the back­ground. The for­mer Lib­eral MP’s re­search pa­per, which landed in the week the Harper gov­ern­ment joined the Trans-Pa­cific Part­ner­ship talks, has the po­ten­tial to change every­thing.

“Writ­ten for Jack Mintz’s School of Pub­lic Pol­icy at the Uni­ver­sity of Cal­gary, it is the lat­est to lay out the ir­refutable case for con­sign­ing the sup­ply man­age­ment of dairy, poul­try and eggs to his­tory.”

It has to be said too that oth­ers—to their re­gret—have un­der­es­ti­mated this for­mer ski racer. She’s got pluck enough, though I fear that may not be enough to win.

And a post with several links that demonstrate just what sort of a man the Young Dauphin really is (for those of you who never had the chance to see him in person) Several embedded links and video:

http://bcblue.wordpress.com/2012/11/14/justin-trudeau-caught-lying-about-liberal-candidate-apologizing-for-war-vets-campaign-signs/

Justin Trudeau caught lying about Liberal candidate apologizing for war vets campaign signs
November 14, 2012 — BC Blue

If you’d like to see a perfect example of what leadership ‘qualities’ MP Justin Trudeau brings to the table, check out this video from Sun News that catches him making up a lie about Liberal candidate Grant Humes (see here). http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid868989705001?bckey=AQ~~,AAAAybGjzqk~,6NfTc6c241GVQxOh-GBHNHu5Cuhlf-y9&bctid=1967868022001

Also: See earlier post on Humes’ campaign signs here
http://bcblue.wordpress.com/2012/11/12/liberal-candidate-uses-war-vets-as-political-fodder-in-campaign-signs/

Update: Trudeau has hissy fit when asked about this Liberal candidate using war vets as campaign fodder (see video here)
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/archives/2012/11/20121114-145514.html#.UKQOTut7nns.twitter

 

[ModlrMike]

I'm not a Liberal, but if I were I would probably support Ms Hall Findley. Of all the current crop she's the one who brings the most to the table. Too bad she'll be swept aside by Trudeaumania 0.2

 

[PanaEng]

What about his Ex-Military person:http://www.ottawacitizen.com/story_print.html?id=7535779&sponsor
Anyone here heard of her?

On another topic. For as much as I think Mr Garneau has the intellectual ability to be a great leader (how far did that get Mr Ignatieff nationally?), I think he lacks the charisma or political skills to push his way to the top.

P.S. I also don't agree with many of the things he has said/written.

 

[Danjanou]

What about his Ex-Military person:http://www.ottawacitizen.com/story_print.html?id=7535779&sponsor
Anyone here heard of her?

Nope and I'm willing to bet that after the first round of votes no one will again 8)

 

[ModlrMike]

Well, she did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.  >

 

[Edward Campbell]

While Martha Hall Findlay brings some much needed thoughtfulness to the race, and despite his lack of charisma, I think both Mark Garneau and the party will be sorry if he dos not run. Garneau will be sorry because I suspect he can give M. Trudeau a real run for his money, possibly (probably?) even beat him; the party will be sorry because M. Garneau has substance or gravitas or what the Brits call bottom and that is almost totally absent in M. Trudeau and it will be too late, in 2014, to learn that it is an essential leadership ingredient.

 

[Infanteer]

...and if the Liberals don't get it from Garneau, then their going to watching Mulcair use it on them to pound them into the sand....

 

[Edward Campbell]

Liberal insider and agent provocateur Warren Kinsella wants some Liberal leadership candidates to quite while they're "ahead" in this column which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Sun:

http://www.ottawasun.com/2012/11/16/grit-leadership-wannabes-no-seat-dont-compete

Grit leadership wannabes: No seat? Don’t compete!

BY WARREN KINSELLA, QMI AGENCY

UPDATED: SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2012

Now that the Liberal Party of Canada’s leadership race is officially underway — and that the party is moving up dramatically in various public opinion polls — here’s what some of the leadership candidates need to do.

Drop out.

We live in one of the world’s great democracies, and it goes without saying that any citizen should be able to run for any post he or she desires. The Liberal Party, too, should be open to the ambitions of any Canadian who shares its views.

But just because you can run for something doesn’t mean that you should.

Just because you want to be a leader of a political party doesn’t mean that everyone else thinks so, too.

It gives me no pleasure to say this, but Deborah Coyne, David Bertschi and Martha Hall-Findlay need to seriously reconsider their bids to lead the Liberal Party of Canada. They need to call it a day.

I’ve met Coyne, and have known David and Martha for a long time.

All of them are the kind of people the Liberal Party needs.

All of them are the kind of people we need more of in Parliament.

Smart, decent, hard-working and dedicated to public service.

But they shouldn’t be running for leader of the Liberal Party.

Nor, for that matter, should the Toronto technology lawyer, the former political aide, the Vancouver lawyer, or the other Vancouver guy — the one running his campaign out of a mobile home.

All of them need to quit, now.

There’s the winning thing, for example.

None of them can win, and none of them will.

In the case of Coyne, Bertschi and Hall-Findlay: Is it too much to ask that you win your own riding, before you start asking us to believe you can win the country?

If you can’t, say, win your own neighbours over, how do you expect to win over the whole country?

And, in the case of the others, would it not be advisable to run, and win, a seat in Parliament before you offer yourself as leader of one of the (formerly) most successful political parties in Western democracy? Would it kill you to do that?

They all seem to have fancy-looking websites.

But a website does not a national leader make. If it did, Lady Gaga would be president of the United States. Her website is pretty neat, too.

I don’t want to be critical of any of these people.

We need more like them. But isn’t it a bit, well, arrogant to want to become CEO before you ever work on the shop floor?

Listen up, lesser-known Liberal leadership candidates: we Liberals are in trouble.

We got put in the penalty box, some seven years ago, and we deserved to be there

We had lost touch with the people, and ourselves. We had lost our way.

Now that we are back on the ice, to extend the hockey metaphor, we are starting to look good again.

Folks in the stands are starting to give us a second look. They might just start cheering for us again, if we play well.

People like Justin Trudeau, and Marc Garneau — and Bob Rae, quite frankly — are the main reason for that. They have helped to keep the Liberal Party relevant, and in the papers.

They have helped make us an attractive political option again.

We Grits are in a remote corner of the House of Commons.

We came a distant third in the May 2011 general election. What we need now, desperately, are winners.

Not folks looking to burnish their C.V., or get an ego boost.

You want the Liberal Party leadership?

Fine.

Go win a seat, first, and then we can talk.

Broadly, I agree with him - the leadership race needs a few real "winners," not a mass of "who dats."

But I suspect this is directed, fairly narrowly, at Martha Hall Findlay who threatens to bring some ideas to the leadership race and that will be a problem for M. Trudeau, I think.

 

[ModlrMike]

Clearly Warren wants a coronation rather than an election. Past leadership contests have been won quite handily by folks who did not currently hold a seat. Why should this one be any different? I would rather democracy be more inclusive rather than less, as proposed by this idea.