OldSolduer
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The Shadow Fleet
- Thread starter Kirkhill
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HavokFour
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Re-routing....
Russian 'Shadow Fleet' LNG Tankers Reroute After Blast Sinks ‘Arctic Metagaz’ in Mediterranean
Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 export network is showing early signs of disruption after an explosion sank one of its shadow fleet carriers in the Mediterranean this week, forcing other tankers to halt or reroute and raising new questions about the security of a key shipping corridor.gcaptain.com
Well would you look at that. Ukraine's reach is now confirmed to extend to Libya.
The Mediterranean is no longer a safe place for the shadow fleet.
Ukrainian forces operating in Libya have attacked a Russian tanker, officials say
Two Libyan officials say that Ukrainian forces are operating in western Libya and that they used the region to strike a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean last month.
apnews.com
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Question to AI:
Is the shadow fleet growing or shrinking and has the rate of change changed since decenber 2025?
Response:
As of early 2026, the shadow fleet is still growing in size, though the rate of growth has slowed significantly compared to the rapid expansion seen in 2024 and early 2025. While the fleet "plateaued" in late 2025, it adapted to tighter sanctions by increasing its operational resilience and employing more deceptive practices, rather than shrinking.
Reuters +3
Key Trends Since December 2025:
Kpler +1
Is the shadow fleet growing or shrinking and has the rate of change changed since decenber 2025?
Response:
As of early 2026, the shadow fleet is still growing in size, though the rate of growth has slowed significantly compared to the rapid expansion seen in 2024 and early 2025. While the fleet "plateaued" in late 2025, it adapted to tighter sanctions by increasing its operational resilience and employing more deceptive practices, rather than shrinking.
Reuters +3
Key Trends Since December 2025:
- Continued Growth & Churn: The fleet is "adding then churning," with new, older vessels joining while others are de-listed or sanctioned, resulting in a net increase that is lower than in previous years. By March 2026, the fleet was estimated to include roughly 1,300–1,500 vessels, continuing to move about 15–20% of global oil, with a high concentration of Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan cargo.
- Shift in Rate of Change: Following a small step down in total fleet size in December 2025, the fleet has continued to add tankers (31 new additions in February 2026 alone), but increased regulatory pressure means more vessels are being removed from mainstream, high-quality registries.
- Rising Detention Rates: There has been a noticeable increase in inspection and detention of shadow tankers sailing under false flags. In March 2026 alone, several vessels were detained by European authorities.
- "False Flag" Usage: The number of vessels operating under false flags, which was a notable feature of the fleet, grew significantly in early 2026, reaching 48 known vessels by the end of March 2026.
- Older Tanker Dominance: The fleet's reliance on aging ships—often over 20 years old and lacking proper insurance—remains a major characteristic, with 13 of the 19 new joiners in December 2025 being in this category.
Wikipedia +6
Kpler +1
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Question to AI:
How are China's oil stocks holding up?
China’s oil stocks are holding up remarkably well, functioning as a "safe haven" during the current Middle East crisis due to massive stockpiling, with an estimated 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrels in reserve (covering roughly 3–4 months of imports). While rising, self-sufficient energy production and diversified imports (Russia, Central Asia) allow Beijing to weather the disruptions better than most, despite rising transportation costs and high-priced imports impacting sectors like transport.
Reuters +5
Current Status of China's Oil Sector:
...
So my take is that the efforts being expended on the Shadow Fleet, Russia, Venezuela and Iran are applying some pressure and that pressure is influencing actions but it has not yet precipitated a crisis. A crisis would require another year or so of sustained pressure and no major changes in the plans of any of the major players.
Still in the first quarter.
How are China's oil stocks holding up?
China’s oil stocks are holding up remarkably well, functioning as a "safe haven" during the current Middle East crisis due to massive stockpiling, with an estimated 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrels in reserve (covering roughly 3–4 months of imports). While rising, self-sufficient energy production and diversified imports (Russia, Central Asia) allow Beijing to weather the disruptions better than most, despite rising transportation costs and high-priced imports impacting sectors like transport.
Reuters +5
Current Status of China's Oil Sector:
- Massive Buffer: China accumulated over 1 billion barrels in commercial and strategic reserves during 2025.
- Minimal Disruption Impact: Due to high inventory and diverse energy sources (renewables, coal, pipelines), China’s economy has shown more resilience than expected amid the ongoing conflict.
- Government Intervention: Beijing has instructed state refiners to tap into commercial reserves and suspended fuel exports to prioritize domestic supply.
- Mixed Impact on Sector: Although strategic reserves provide a buffer, high oil prices are causing rising costs in industries like plastic and transport.
- Shift in Supplies: China is relying more heavily on Russian and potentially Canadian crude to replace sanctioned Middle Eastern oil.
JKempEnergy.com +8
- Which Chinese NOCs (National Oil Companies) are best positioned
- How "teapot" refiners are navigating the shortage
- Which renewable energy companies are benefiting from the transition
...
So my take is that the efforts being expended on the Shadow Fleet, Russia, Venezuela and Iran are applying some pressure and that pressure is influencing actions but it has not yet precipitated a crisis. A crisis would require another year or so of sustained pressure and no major changes in the plans of any of the major players.
Still in the first quarter.
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Two Russian shadow fleet tankers spotted crossing British waters
The two ships were seen heading in opposit directions near the Hebrides in the North Atlantic Ocean on Monday morning
www.independent.co.uk
Britain cannot afford to seize Russian ships
Navy unable to operate against Putin’s ‘shadow fleet’ amid dispute surrounding cost and logistics
www.telegraph.co.uk
....
With any luck at all Starmer will be gone in May after the local elections. On the other hand there are lots of Corbynites looking for his job.
....
One of his potential replacements is the Chancellor who has been holding up funding for the Armed Forces Defence Investment Plan. Now she is talking about selling War Bonds so she doesn't have to interfere with her welfare giveaways.
Reeves considers war bonds to fund defence boost to avoid benefit cuts
The Chancellor is facing mounting pressure to say how the Government plans to meet a commitment to take military spending to 3 per cent of GDP by the end of the decade.
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The Iranian cargo ship seized by U.S. forces in the Gulf of Oman this weekend is part of a fleet that often sails to China, one of Tehran’s most important backers—and includes vessels that have been accused of transporting chemicals for Iran’s ballistic-missile program. The ship, the MV Touska, visited the southern China port of Zhuhai twice in the six weeks before it was intercepted Sunday on its way to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, according to shipping analysts.
The Touska ignored six hours of warnings from the USS Spruance, a guided-missile destroyer, according to the Pentagon. The warship then fired several rounds at the area of the containership’s engine room, and Marines boarded the disabled vessel. Read the full article.
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I guess some people are favoured.
www.tradewindsnews.com
Dynacom tanker sails through Strait of Hormuz with AIS off
Greek owner continues to trade in Middle East Gulf no matter what the state of play
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HavokFour
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