OldSolduer
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The Shadow Fleet
- Thread starter Kirkhill
- Start date
HavokFour
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Re-routing....
Russian 'Shadow Fleet' LNG Tankers Reroute After Blast Sinks ‘Arctic Metagaz’ in Mediterranean
Russian shadow fleet LNG carriers reroute operations after explosion sinks Arctic Metagaz in Mediterranean. Safety concerns reshape Arctic gas trade.gcaptain.com
Well would you look at that. Ukraine's reach is now confirmed to extend to Libya.
The Mediterranean is no longer a safe place for the shadow fleet.
Ukrainian forces operating in Libya have attacked a Russian tanker, officials say
Two Libyan officials say that Ukrainian forces are operating in western Libya and that they used the region to strike a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean last month.
apnews.com
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Question to AI:
Is the shadow fleet growing or shrinking and has the rate of change changed since decenber 2025?
Response:
As of early 2026, the shadow fleet is still growing in size, though the rate of growth has slowed significantly compared to the rapid expansion seen in 2024 and early 2025. While the fleet "plateaued" in late 2025, it adapted to tighter sanctions by increasing its operational resilience and employing more deceptive practices, rather than shrinking.
Reuters +3
Key Trends Since December 2025:
Kpler +1
Is the shadow fleet growing or shrinking and has the rate of change changed since decenber 2025?
Response:
As of early 2026, the shadow fleet is still growing in size, though the rate of growth has slowed significantly compared to the rapid expansion seen in 2024 and early 2025. While the fleet "plateaued" in late 2025, it adapted to tighter sanctions by increasing its operational resilience and employing more deceptive practices, rather than shrinking.
Reuters +3
Key Trends Since December 2025:
- Continued Growth & Churn: The fleet is "adding then churning," with new, older vessels joining while others are de-listed or sanctioned, resulting in a net increase that is lower than in previous years. By March 2026, the fleet was estimated to include roughly 1,300–1,500 vessels, continuing to move about 15–20% of global oil, with a high concentration of Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan cargo.
- Shift in Rate of Change: Following a small step down in total fleet size in December 2025, the fleet has continued to add tankers (31 new additions in February 2026 alone), but increased regulatory pressure means more vessels are being removed from mainstream, high-quality registries.
- Rising Detention Rates: There has been a noticeable increase in inspection and detention of shadow tankers sailing under false flags. In March 2026 alone, several vessels were detained by European authorities.
- "False Flag" Usage: The number of vessels operating under false flags, which was a notable feature of the fleet, grew significantly in early 2026, reaching 48 known vessels by the end of March 2026.
- Older Tanker Dominance: The fleet's reliance on aging ships—often over 20 years old and lacking proper insurance—remains a major characteristic, with 13 of the 19 new joiners in December 2025 being in this category.
Wikipedia +6
Kpler +1
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Question to AI:
How are China's oil stocks holding up?
China’s oil stocks are holding up remarkably well, functioning as a "safe haven" during the current Middle East crisis due to massive stockpiling, with an estimated 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrels in reserve (covering roughly 3–4 months of imports). While rising, self-sufficient energy production and diversified imports (Russia, Central Asia) allow Beijing to weather the disruptions better than most, despite rising transportation costs and high-priced imports impacting sectors like transport.
Reuters +5
Current Status of China's Oil Sector:
...
So my take is that the efforts being expended on the Shadow Fleet, Russia, Venezuela and Iran are applying some pressure and that pressure is influencing actions but it has not yet precipitated a crisis. A crisis would require another year or so of sustained pressure and no major changes in the plans of any of the major players.
Still in the first quarter.
How are China's oil stocks holding up?
China’s oil stocks are holding up remarkably well, functioning as a "safe haven" during the current Middle East crisis due to massive stockpiling, with an estimated 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrels in reserve (covering roughly 3–4 months of imports). While rising, self-sufficient energy production and diversified imports (Russia, Central Asia) allow Beijing to weather the disruptions better than most, despite rising transportation costs and high-priced imports impacting sectors like transport.
Reuters +5
Current Status of China's Oil Sector:
- Massive Buffer: China accumulated over 1 billion barrels in commercial and strategic reserves during 2025.
- Minimal Disruption Impact: Due to high inventory and diverse energy sources (renewables, coal, pipelines), China’s economy has shown more resilience than expected amid the ongoing conflict.
- Government Intervention: Beijing has instructed state refiners to tap into commercial reserves and suspended fuel exports to prioritize domestic supply.
- Mixed Impact on Sector: Although strategic reserves provide a buffer, high oil prices are causing rising costs in industries like plastic and transport.
- Shift in Supplies: China is relying more heavily on Russian and potentially Canadian crude to replace sanctioned Middle Eastern oil.
JKempEnergy.com +8
- Which Chinese NOCs (National Oil Companies) are best positioned
- How "teapot" refiners are navigating the shortage
- Which renewable energy companies are benefiting from the transition
...
So my take is that the efforts being expended on the Shadow Fleet, Russia, Venezuela and Iran are applying some pressure and that pressure is influencing actions but it has not yet precipitated a crisis. A crisis would require another year or so of sustained pressure and no major changes in the plans of any of the major players.
Still in the first quarter.
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Two Russian shadow fleet tankers spotted crossing British waters
The two ships were seen heading in opposit directions near the Hebrides in the North Atlantic Ocean on Monday morning
www.independent.co.uk
Britain cannot afford to seize Russian ships
Navy unable to operate against Putin’s ‘shadow fleet’ amid dispute surrounding cost and logistics
www.telegraph.co.uk
....
With any luck at all Starmer will be gone in May after the local elections. On the other hand there are lots of Corbynites looking for his job.
....
One of his potential replacements is the Chancellor who has been holding up funding for the Armed Forces Defence Investment Plan. Now she is talking about selling War Bonds so she doesn't have to interfere with her welfare giveaways.
Reeves considers war bonds to fund defence boost to avoid benefit cuts
The Chancellor is facing mounting pressure to say how the Government plans to meet a commitment to take military spending to 3 per cent of GDP by the end of the decade.
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The Iranian cargo ship seized by U.S. forces in the Gulf of Oman this weekend is part of a fleet that often sails to China, one of Tehran’s most important backers—and includes vessels that have been accused of transporting chemicals for Iran’s ballistic-missile program. The ship, the MV Touska, visited the southern China port of Zhuhai twice in the six weeks before it was intercepted Sunday on its way to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, according to shipping analysts.
The Touska ignored six hours of warnings from the USS Spruance, a guided-missile destroyer, according to the Pentagon. The warship then fired several rounds at the area of the containership’s engine room, and Marines boarded the disabled vessel. Read the full article.
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I guess some people are favoured.
www.tradewindsnews.com
Dynacom tanker sails through Strait of Hormuz with AIS off
Greek owner continues to trade in Middle East Gulf no matter what the state of play
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US Navy pushes two more vessels back to Iranian waters as blockade heads off 27 ships
Iran appears to prevent two ships from making Strait of Hormuz transits
HavokFour
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US Navy pushes two more vessels back to Iranian waters as blockade heads off 27 ships
Iran appears to prevent two ships from making Strait of Hormuz transits
This is getting a little confusing.
Is the USN doing the Thanos thing?
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- Reaction score
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- Reaction score
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Number of Russian 'shadow fleet' ships anchored off Estonia has halved
The number of Russian "shadow fleet" tankers anchored in the Baltic Sea has dropped sharply over the past week, authorities say.
news.err.ee
HavokFour
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It appears Israel has been a destination for shadow fleet ships. But instead of oil it's stolen grain.
April 16, 2026
united24media.com
April 26, 2026
www.haaretz.com
Archive
April 27, 2026
united24media.com
April 16, 2026
Ukraine Demands Answers From Israel After Russian Shadow Fleet Ship Docks in Haifa
Ukraine asks Israel to clarify reports of a Russian shadow fleet vessel docking in Haifa with grain from occupied territories.
united24media.com
April 26, 2026
How Ukraine wheat stolen by Russia is smuggled to Israel
A Haaretz Investigation Reveals How Grain Stolen From Occupied Territory in Ukraine Has Been Sold to Israel. The Profits of the Shady Operation Are Financing Putin's War
April 27, 2026
Ukraine Threatens Israel With Diplomatic Fallout Over Suspected Stolen Grain Shipment
Ukraine warns Israel of diplomatic fallout over a second suspected stolen grain shipment, urging Haifa to deny entry to the vessel PANORMITIS.
united24media.com
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Rule Britannia.
"LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Keir Starmer's decision last month to let the British military board ships of Russia’s so‑called "shadow fleet" has had no clear impact on the number passing through UK waters, a Reuters analysis shows.
"In the month after Starmer's March 25 threat, at least 98 Russian vessels subject to UK sanctions transited its waters, about the same as each of the last three months."
"LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Keir Starmer's decision last month to let the British military board ships of Russia’s so‑called "shadow fleet" has had no clear impact on the number passing through UK waters, a Reuters analysis shows.
"In the month after Starmer's March 25 threat, at least 98 Russian vessels subject to UK sanctions transited its waters, about the same as each of the last three months."
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Hybrid warfare at sea, US style.
Militarize the police. Again.
www.twz.com
Militarize the police. Again.
Coast Guard Creates Its Own Special Operations Command
The Coast Guard is putting all of its specialized forces under a single headquarters as demand for their services is at an all-time high.
www.twz.com
KevinB
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Well they are really just going back to how it was arranged shortly after 9-11.Hybrid warfare at sea, US style.
Militarize the police. Again.
Coast Guard Creates Its Own Special Operations Command
The Coast Guard is putting all of its specialized forces under a single headquarters as demand for their services is at an all-time high.
Albiet I did not see the HITRON units in that matrix this time.
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EU Warships Can Now Board Russian Shadow Fleet Tankers in the Mediterranean, Kallas Says
EU naval missions in the Mediterranean can now board Russian shadow fleet tankers, expanding Operation IRINI's role in enforcing sanctions.
united24media.com
So that is both the Baltic and the Mediterranean.
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"Ello, ello, ello. Что это все значит, товарищ?"
www.gov.uk
herald.wales
www.bournemouthecho.co.uk
UK forces intercept Russian shadow fleet vessel for the first time in blow to Putin's war chest
British forces this morning boarded a sanctioned shadow fleet oil tanker in the Channel in the latest blow to Russia’s war economy.
Royal Marines seize Russian ‘shadow fleet’ tanker in Channel - Herald.Wales
Sanctioned vessel boarded in first UK-led operation of its kind as Britain targets Moscow’s oil revenues ROYAL MARINE COMMANDOS have boarded and seized a
herald.wales
Video footage shows Royal Marines boarding Russian shadow fleet vessel
A VIDEO released by the Ministry of Defence shows Royal Marine commandos boarding a Russian shadow fleet vessel in the Channel
www.bournemouthecho.co.uk
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"Ello, ello, ello. Что это все значит, товарищ?"
UK forces intercept Russian shadow fleet vessel for the first time in blow to Putin's war chest
British forces this morning boarded a sanctioned shadow fleet oil tanker in the Channel in the latest blow to Russia’s war economy.Royal Marines seize Russian ‘shadow fleet’ tanker in Channel - Herald.Wales
Sanctioned vessel boarded in first UK-led operation of its kind as Britain targets Moscow’s oil revenues ROYAL MARINE COMMANDOS have boarded and seized aVideo footage shows Royal Marines boarding Russian shadow fleet vessel
A VIDEO released by the Ministry of Defence shows Royal Marine commandos boarding a Russian shadow fleet vessel in the Channel
About time and all.
