US Election: 2016

[a_majoor]

In other news the Green Party is supposed to be considering offering Bernie Sanders the candidacy. This would her a leftist dream come true (and splitting the Progressive vote would have a positive long term impact as well).

 

[Brad Sallows]

I think Sanders should do it.  That would put at least three people on the ticket who are too flaky to be there.

 

[CougarKing]

A backroom deal for Sanders to get the VP slot as opposed to Senator Elizabeth Warren?

BBC

US election 2016: Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has received an endorsement from her former rival Bernie Sanders.

The Vermont senator and former Democratic presidential candidate is appearing with Mrs Clinton at a campaign event in New Hampshire.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[cupper]

A backroom deal for Sanders to get the VP slot as opposed to Senator Elizabeth Warren?

BBC

Nah. Can't see it. Clinton's problem is she needs someone closer to the middle of the road, and Bernie is definitely in the field on the opposite side of the road. Tim Kaine is the likely front runner for the position.

 

[a_majoor]

While polls this far out are notoriously unreliable, I will enjoy seeing the amount of time and effort begin put into trying to explain or refute this by the Dems. The sounds of heads exploding will be quite satisfying.

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

July 13, 2016 - Clinton Losing On Honesty In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds
---
FLORIDA: Trump 42 - Clinton 39
OHIO: Clinton 41 - Trump 41
PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 43 - Clinton 41
With a drop in grades on honesty and moral standards, Democrat Hillary Clinton loses an 8-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Florida, and finds herself in too-close-to-call races in the three critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Clinton loses ground on almost every measure from a June 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

The presidential matchups show:
Florida - Trump at 42 percent to Clinton's 39, compared to a 47 - 39 percent Clinton lead June 21;
Ohio - Clinton and Trump tied 41 - 41 percent, compared to a 40 - 40 percent tie June 21;
Pennsylvania - Trump at 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent, compared to June 21, when Clinton had 42 percent to Trump's 41 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:
Florida - Trump leads Clinton 41 - 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
Ohio - Trump at 37 percent to Clinton's 36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent;
Pennsylvania - Trump over Clinton 40 - 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.
"Donald Trump enters the Republican Convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton's lead in Florida; is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"While there is no definite link between Clinton's drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty."

By wide margins, voters in each state agree with the statement, "The old way of doing things no longer works and we need radical change." Voters also agree by wide margins that trade agreements with other countries have hurt them and their families' financial situation.

Voters still say Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and that she is better prepared to be president. But Clinton has lost her wide lead over Trump for having "higher moral standards." And Trump widens his lead over Clinton for being more honest and trustworthy.

Florida

While the gender gap remains wide, Trump gains support among men, who back him 50 - 29 percent, and women, who back Clinton 48 - 36 percent, compared to 52 - 34 percent in June. Independent voters shift from 44 - 35 percent for Clinton last month to 43 - 30 percent for Trump today. Republicans back Trump 82 - 6 percent, while Clinton leads 87 - 4 among Democrats. White voters back Trump 54 - 30 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 56 - 21 percent.

Florida voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 35 - 59 percent for her and 38 - 54 percent for him.

Comparing the candidates' character traits, voters say:
53 - 37 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
42 - 42 percent tie on who has higher moral standards, wiping out a 47 - 36 percent Clinton lead on this measure June 21;
52 - 35 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
50 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy, up from 43 - 40 percent.
Florida voters say 54 - 39 percent that Trump would be better creating jobs; 49 - 45 percent that he would do better on immigration and 57 - 35 percent that Trump would be more effective against ISIS.

Voters agree:
71 - 25 percent that the old ways don't work and it's time for radical change;
55 - 39 percent that foreign trade agreements have hurt them personally;
80 - 19 that public officials "don't care much what people like me think."
"In Florida, Donald Trump is getting only 21 percent of the non-white vote. Although he is winning among white voters, who are mainly Republican, victory in Florida will be a very difficult lift for him if he can't do better among non-white voters," Brown said.

Ohio

Disenchantment runs strong in the Rust Belt state of Ohio, where voters agree:
59 - 39 percent that they are falling further and further behind economically;
73 - 24 percent that the old ways don't work and it's time for radical change;
59 - 37 percent that foreign trade agreements have hurt them personally;
79 - 20 that public officials "don't care much what people like me think."
Gender and racial gaps continue to divide Ohio voters. Men back Trump 47 - 33 percent, while women go to Clinton 48 - 35 percent. White voters go Republican 46 - 35 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 69 - 15 percent.

Trump leads 77 - 6 percent among Republicans and 43 - 31 percent among independent voters, while Democrats back Clinton 90 - 4 percent.

Ohio voters give Clinton a negative 35 - 60 percent favorability rating, and give Trump a negative 34 - 59 percent.

Comparing the candidates' character traits, voters say:
57 - 34 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
43 percent that she has higher moral standards, to Trump's 42 percent;
52 - 35 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
47 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy.
Trump would be better creating jobs, Ohio voters say 54 - 39 percent. Clinton would be better on immigration, 48 percent of voters say, while 45 percent say Trump would be better. Trump would be more effective against ISIS, voters say 51 - 40 percent, but Clinton would be better responding to an international crisis, voters say 50 - 43 percent.

"A majority of Ohio voters, 53 - 44 percent, say the 'government has gone too far in assisting minority groups,'" Brown said. "The same voters agree 72 - 25 percent that 'Prejudice against minority groups is a big problem in the United States today.'"

Pennsylvania

The gender gap is shrinking in Pennsylvania, where Clinton leads 43 - 39 percent among women, down from 50 - 34 percent in June, while Trump leads 48 - 37 percent among men, compared to 50 - 33 percent last month. He leads 82 - 5 percent among Republicans, as Clinton takes Democrats 82 - 9 percent. Independent voters are divided with 39 percent for Trump and 36 percent for Clinton. White voters go Republican 51 - 33 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 72 - 12 percent.

Keystone State voters give Clinton a negative 31 - 65 percent favorability rating, and give Trump a negative 38 - 57 percent.

Comparing the candidates' character traits, voters say:
56 - 36 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
43 percent that she has higher moral standards, with 41 percent for Trump;
51 - 37 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
49 - 34 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy.
Trump would be better creating jobs, Pennsylvania voters say 54 - 39 percent. Clinton would be better on immigration, 49 percent of voters say, as 47 percent pick Trump. Trump would be more effective against ISIS, voters say 52 - 40 percent, but Clinton would be better responding to an international crisis, voters say 52 - 43 percent.

Pennsylvania voters agree:
72 - 26 percent that the old ways don't work and it's time for radical change;
58 - 38 percent that foreign trade agreements have hurt them personally;
78 - 21 percent that public officials "don't care much what people like me think."
"As she battles for every vote in a tight race with Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has to look at the erosion of support from women as a red flag in a blue state that could carry one of the candidates to the White House," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

From June 30 - July 11 Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,015 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points;
955 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points;
982 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

 

[a_majoor]

Best pictorial response to Bernie's "endorsement"

 

[tomahawk6]

The Mayor of Cleveland has ordered his police to stand aside next week during the RNC convention.This might be a replay of the terror inflicted on Trump supporters by leftist thugs in California earlier this year.The unintended consequence might be looting of downtown Cleveland.The democrats need to face legal action for organizing against Trump and his supporters.

 

[tomahawk6]

Trump supporters attacked by a mob in California have filed a civil rights case against the Mayor of San Jose,the SJ PD and named/unnamed attackers.Good for them.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/07/trump-rally-attendees-sue-san-jose-mayor-police-chief-attackers-violence-june-rally/

Fourteen individuals who attended the Donald J. Trump presidential campaign rally on June 2, 2016, in San Jose, Calif., filed a class action lawsuit this morning against the City of San Jose, its mayor, Sam Liccardo, its chief of police, Edgardo Garcia, certain named individual rioter defendants, and 38 yet-unknown “Doe” defendants, alleging that the Defendants created a dangerous situation for all Trump Rally attendees that caused plaintiffs to be exposed to brutal assault, intimidation, false imprisonment, and threats by an angry mob of hundreds of anti-Trump protesters.

“Law-abiding citizens leaving the Trump rally were victimized by being forced by armed police to walk into a riot in full swing where many were assaulted while police looked on,” said Plaintiffs’ attorney, Harmeet K. Dhillon. “We seek redress for the serious physical and other injuries our clients and the class suffered as a direct result of the City’s acts and omissions, as well as the deliberate acts of the individual assailants.”

 

[mariomike]

The Mayor of Cleveland has ordered his police to stand aside next week during the RNC convention.This might be a replay of the terror inflicted on Trump supporters by leftist thugs in California earlier this year.The unintended consequence might be looting of downtown Cleveland.The democrats need to face legal action for organizing against Trump and his supporters.

Looks like the City of Cleveland is getting ready for a bloodbath,

Last-minute scramble among safety forces preparing for RNC
http://fox8.com/2016/07/12/i-team-last-minute-scramble-among-safety-forces-preparing-for-rnc/

 

[a_majoor]

While polls this far out are relatively unreliable, it is interesting to see the Dems are already starting to sound worried. I think the true cause of their angst is the simple fact that although they are outspending the GOP by a vast margin, they are not seeing commensurate results (and which party is always saying that "big money" should not ba allowed in politics?)

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/287845-democrats-freaked-out-about-polls-in-meeting-with-clinton

Democrats ‘freaked out’ about polls in meeting with Clinton
TheHill.com

Nervous Senate Democrats raised concerns with Hillary Clinton during a private meeting in the Capitol Thursday over a recent poll showing Donald Trump leading or tied in several battleground states.

“Some people were freaked out, they were looking down at the polls on RealClearPolitics and asking why it was so close,” said a Democratic senator who attended the meeting, referring to a website lawmakers were checking out on their personal devices.

Clinton’s response?
“She said there are other issues. People are unhappy and they don’t trust institutions,” the senator explained.

A second Democratic source in the meeting confirmed there was “a mention of the Florida poll.”

A Quinnipiac University poll released this week showed the presumptive GOP presidential nominee up 42 percent to 39 percent in swing state Florida. Clinton had an 8-point lead in Quinnipiac’s poll of the state last month.

The same survey showed Trump ahead 2 points in Pennsylvania, another big swing state, and tied in Ohio. The three states have been pivotal in the last four presidential elections.

The source emphasized that no one suggested Clinton wasn’t running a strong race or questioned her performance.

Instead, it was an acknowledgement that the presidential race will be very close even though many Washington-based strategists and pundits across the ideological spectrum question Trump’s seriousness as a candidate.

“There was concern raised about the race because we know it’s going to be a close race,” said the source.

A senior Senate Democratic aide, who was not in the meeting, acknowledged that senators have raised concerns about the closeness of the polls at other times.

“We wouldn't be Democrats if there weren't a few bed-wetters,” the aide said.

But the aide said Democratic lawmakers have felt reassured that when the margin between Clinton and Trump narrows, it’s because Clinton’s numbers dip, not because Trump’s climb.

Clinton suffered a public relations blow earlier this month when FBI Director James Comey issued a statement criticizing her for being “extremely careless” in handling classified material over a private email server when she was secretary of State.

Senate Democrats are especially vested in the race because they’re resting their hopes of winning back Senate control on Clinton winning in November.

A study published last year by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics showed a high correlation between presidential and Senate results historically. In 2012, the correlation was 0.78; a perfect correlation is 1.

The sense of uneasiness among Senate Democrats is heightened by their observation that Trump has stayed within striking distance in pivotal states despite being vastly outspent.

NBC News reported this week that Clinton’s campaign and allied super-PACs have spent $57 million so far, while Trump’s campaign hasn’t spent anything, and two allied outside groups have spent only $3.6 million.

Team Clinton has outspent Team Trump in nine battleground states by a 40-1 ratio, NBC reported.

Nevertheless, Democratic senators praised the meeting as “good” and “productive.”

“It was very good. People were very excited to have her there,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.).

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) said “there were questions that pertained to the campaign and strategy and things like that,” but he declined to talk about polling.

He added there’s broad recognition within the caucus that the presidential contest won’t be a cakewalk.

“It wasn’t just a meeting where everyone said 'everything is fine, don’t worry about it.' We know this is going to be a tough election. We see it all around us, and we have to be prepared for a close election,” he said.

 

[CougarKing]

Yesterday, CNN listed Pence, Christie and Gingrinch as the top three contenders for the VP slot. The baggage the other two have should have make it obvious who was going to be the only choice.

CNN

Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP

By Eric Bradner, Dana Bash and MJ Lee, CNN

Updated 1:03 PM ET, Fri July 15, 2016

(CNN)Donald Trump said Friday Indiana Gov. Mike Pence is his choice to be his running mate.
"I am pleased to announce that I have chosen Governor Mike Pence as my Vice Presidential running mate. News conference tomorrow at 11:00 A.M.," the presumptive Republican nominee tweeted.

(...SNIPPED)

And in other news:

Canadian Press

Trump seeks $10 million in damages from former campaign aide
[Julie Pace And Chad Day, The Associated Press]
July 14, 2016

WASHINGTON - In a highly unusual campaign dispute, Donald Trump is seeking $10 million in damages from his former political consultant Sam Nunberg, arguing Nunberg violated the nondisclosure agreement nearly every Trump employee is required to sign.

Trump alleges Nunberg leaked confidential information to reporters. Nunberg, in a court filing obtained by The Associated Press, contends Trump is trying to silence him "in a misguided attempt to cover up media coverage of an apparent affair" between two senior campaign staffers.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[cupper]

Well, we avoided the end of days. Thank God he passed on Palin.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Well, we avoided the end of days. Thank God he passed on Palin.

I've never heard of who he did pick.  Hope he's not a fid.

 

[PuckChaser]

Mike Pence.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/14/politics/donald-trump-vice-presidential-choice/

 

[jollyjacktar]

I should have said,  I've never heard of Pence until now.  Know SFA about him.

 

[PuckChaser]

Link had a little montage about him, pretty biased though. I've never heard of him either. Looks like a hard social conservative to appease Republican base.

 

[cupper]

He's a hard right conservative who fails to learn the lessons that others have. He signed into law a freedom of religion law that essentially rolled back LGBT rights after the Supreme Court brought down its decision for same sex marriage.

CO Governor Jan Brewer refused to sign essentially the same law when it hit her desk, stating that it was too draconian and enshrined discrimination, and would never stand up to a challenge in SCOTUS.

He neded up walking it back after several days of waffling back and forth. He was criticized by moderates in his own party as be bein ineffectual during the crisis.

He also signed into law an anti abortion bill that made it a crime for a doctor to induce a miscarriage at any point in a pregnancy regardless of circumstances. However the bill was so broad in scope that prescribing the morning after pill could fall under the same restrictions. It also eliminated state funding to Woman's health clinics that also performed abortion services. Pro Choice groups subjected the governors office and personal e-mail to a unique campaign of protest. Women would e-mail descriptions of their menstrual cycles to him and other members of the conservative state GOP legislature.

Pense is so low in popularity that the State GOP was hoping he would get picked as VP so they could put someone else on the Gubenitorial ticket.

All Pense does for Trump is shore up the base who had concerns about his lack of conservative values. How that would actually work is beyond me since Trump not Pense will be calling the shots, and Trump does not abide by his underlings going against his message. And Pense has a record that is in opposition to some key points of Trumps platform, such as it is.

Trump had a problem with the woman vote, but Pense just made that problem worse.

Pense spent time in Congress. Over his 12 years in Washington he was never able to pass a single bill he introduced, but has a hard right voting record.

This is only a selection to shore up the base, and does nothing to gain votes in the middle where Trump needs them.

 

[muskrat89]

CO Governor Jan Brewer

Jan Brewer was Governor of Arizona

 

[tomahawk6]

Pence is a solid choice and balance's out the ticket,geographically and ideologically.As Governor Indiana has a $2b surplus.solid fiscally too.Under our constitution everyone is considered equal.

 

[a_majoor]

The political class which created Donald Trump is now wondering how Donald Trump happened. Sow the wind indeed:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/03/20/donald-trump-political-establishment-elites-tea-party-bourgeois-working-class-column/82047484/

Glenn Reynolds: How David Brooks created Donald Trump
Glenn Harlan Reynolds 10:17 a.m. EDT March 21, 2016
Political establishment denounced bourgeois Tea Party. Now, they must face raucous working-class Trumpsters.

Last week, in assessing the rise of Donald Trump, New York Times columnist David Brooks engaged in an uncharacteristic bit of self-reflection:

“Trump voters,” he wrote, “are a coalition of the dispossessed. They have suffered lost jobs, lost wages, lost dreams. The American system is not working for them, so naturally they are looking for something else. Moreover, many in the media, especially me, did not understand how they would express their alienation. We expected Trump to fizzle because we were not socially intermingled with his supporters and did not listen carefully enough. For me, it’s a lesson that I have to change the way I do my job if I’m going to report accurately on this country.” (Emphasis added.)

Well, it’s a lesson for a lot of people in the punditocracy, of whom Brooks — who famously endorsed Barack Obama after viewing his sharply creased pants — is just one. And if Brooks et al. had paid attention, the roots of the Trump phenomenon wouldn’t have been so difficult to fathom.

Brooks is, of course, horrified at Trump and his supporters, whom he finds childish, thuggish and contemptuous of the things that David Brooks likes about today’s America. It’s clear that he’d like a social/political revolution that was more refined, better-mannered, more focused on the Constitution and, well, more bourgeois as opposed to in-your-face and working class.

The thing is, we had that movement. It was the Tea Party movement. Unlike Brooks, I actually ventured out to “intermingle” with Tea Partiers at various events that I covered for PJTV.com, contributing commentary to the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Examiner. As I reported from one event in Nashville, “Pundits claim the tea partiers are angry — and they are — but the most striking thing about the atmosphere in Nashville was how cheerful everyone seemed to be. I spoke with dozens of people, and the responses were surprisingly similar. Hardly any had ever been involved in politics before. Having gotten started, they were finding it to be not just worthwhile, but actually fun. Laughter rang out frequently, and when new-media mogul Andrew Breitbart held forth on a TV interview, a crowd gathered and broke into spontaneous applause. A year ago (2009), many told me, they were depressed about the future of America. Watching television pundits talk about President Obama's transformative plans for big government, they felt alone, isolated and helpless. That changed when protests, organized by bloggers, met Mr. Obama a year ago in Denver, Colo., Mesa, Ariz., and Seattle, Wash. Then came CNBC talker Rick Santelli's famous on-air rant on Feb. 19, 2009, which gave the tea-party movement its name. Tea partiers are still angry at federal deficits, at Washington's habit of rewarding failure with handouts and punishing success with taxes and regulation, and the general incompetence that has marked the first year of the Obama presidency. But they're no longer depressed.”

One of the most famous things about the Tea Partiers was that — as befits a relentlessly bourgeois protest movement — they left things cleaner than they found them. Rich Lowry reported from Washington, DC: “Just as stunning as the tableaux of the massive throngs lining the reflecting pool were the images of the spotless grounds afterward. If someone had told attendees they were expected to mow the grass before they left, surely some of them would have hitched flatbed trailers to their vehicles for the trip to Washington and gladly brought mowers along with them. This was the revolt of the bourgeois, of the responsible, of the orderly, of people profoundly at peace with the traditional mores of American society. The spark that lit the tea-party movement was the rant by CNBC commentator Rick Santelli, who inveighed in early 2009 against an Obama-administration program to subsidize ‘the losers’ mortgages.’ He was speaking for people who hadn’t borrowed beyond their means or tried to get rich quick by flipping houses, for the people who, in their thrift and enterprise, ‘carry the water instead of drink the water.’ The tea party’s detractors want to paint it as radical, when at bottom it represents the self-reliant, industrious heart of American life.”

In San Francisco, too, tea party protesters met pro-Obama activists and picked up their trash. "John," author of The City Square blog wrote: “As Obama supporters moved along in the line to get into the fundraiser, they left behind an impressive amount of trash ... Tea Partiers shouted ‘pick up your garbage’ and ‘this is San Francisco, what about recycling?’ There was no response. They chanted ‘Obama leaves a mess.’ Still no response. Eventually, a tea partier (wearing the black cowboy hat) crosses over and starts to pick up the trash on his own. Other tea partiers join him. Another manages to find a trash bag. Soon the trash is being collected.”

Yet the tea party movement was smeared as racist, denounced as fascist, harassed with impunity by the IRS and generally treated with contempt by the political establishment — and by pundits like Brooks, who declared "I'm not a fan of this movement." After handing the GOP big legislative victories in 2010 and 2014, it was largely betrayed by the Republicans in Congress, who broke their promises to shrink government and block Obama’s initiatives.

So now we have Trump instead, who tells people to punch counterprotesters instead of picking up their trash.

When politeness and orderliness are met with contempt and betrayal, do not be surprised if the response is something less polite, and less orderly. Brooks closes his Trump column with Psalm 73, but a more appropriate verse is Hosea 8:7 "For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind.” Trump’s ascendance is a symptom of a colossal failure among America’s political leaders, of which Brooks’ mean-spirited insularity is only a tiny part. God help us all.