Now, as we look at the sample in the crosstabs section, on Page 20 of the poll, you will find the results of the question, “How enthusiastic are you about voting for President in the upcoming presidential election in November?” Again, if you ask a question in a way that could lead to potential shame (enthusiasm for voting at all vs. enthusiasm in voting for a particular candidate) you’re going to get skewed results. On page 21, let’s examine the 2020 vote breakdown and the Party ID breakdown.
In the 2020 Vote section it shows that Trump has a 86 to 82 advantage over Biden in any positive enthusiasm (Extremely, Very, Somewhat) section. Remember, this poll gave Biden an 11 point lead on the topline. Under Party ID, you’ll find similar results as 87% of Republicans have a positive enthusiasm (Extremely, Very, Somewhat) in voting in the Presidential Election, compared to just 70% for Dems. Further down on Page 36 and 37 you will find the question, ” Who do you think will win the 2020 Presidential Election?” Again, only 69 percent of Biden voters believe he is going to win, while 86% of Trump voters believe he is going to win.
These two questions show that Biden voters are neither as enthusiastic nor confident in their nominee as are Trump voters in theirs’.
Then how would this poll show Biden with an 11 point lead? Simple: Sampling is WAY off. Depending on a poll, you may see a poll give one party a 3-5% advantage over the other. Much above that and your sample will taint the results of the poll. In this poll, beyond the already-identified-above flaws with it, you’ll find they oversampled Democrats by nearly 10 points.
In Question #10, found on pages 24 and 25 of the results, respondents were posed, “If an election for president were going to be held now and the Democratic nominee was Joe Biden and the Republican nominee was Donald Trump, would you vote for…?”
This question was posed to just registered voters and gave Joe Biden a 51% to 40% lead in the poll. Crazy, right? Except on page 25, we can see how respondents answered and how many from each party answered. Of the 1,207 respondents to the question, 494 self-identified as Democrats and only 314 self-identified as Republicans (the remaining 399 were independent/third party). Simply put, of the respondents polled, nearly 41% self-identify as Democrats, while only 26% self-identify as Republicans. A 15 point advantage for Dems built into the data. That number isn’t included in the methodology… I wonder why??