US Presidential Election 2020

[mariomike]

A short analogy: I hardly blame the current CDS because the CAF is seemingly unable to find a suitable replacement for the Browning pistol. That seems like a very easy thing to do, doesn't it? You could literally take the top 3 common options, do a blindfolded draw from a hat, and the result would be 1000% better and serve the CAF for decades to come.  But a lot of middle people have made this seemingly simple requirement almost impossible to achieve.     

Getting back to Mayor Giuliani, because he is President Trump's personal lawyer.

The WTC bombing was in 1993. The FDNY radios had failed to function properly during that attack.

Giuliani was sworn in as mayor on 1 Jan., 1994. He hand-picked his fire commissioner. They failed to upgrade the FDNY analog radios - that they knew were defective - during those eight years.

At 09:32 all FDNY members were ordered out of the North Tower on 9/11. The command was repeated. But, not a single member answered.
FDNY members had 56 minutes to get out of Tower 1. 121 members didn't make it out. NYPD officers heard the order on their radios, and all walked out of the building.

I don't want to sidetrack the election discussion. But, I don't buy into the narrative of President Trump's personal lawyer being a 9/11 hero. 

 

[QV]

The information on the laptop might be bullsh!t, just as the Steele dossier was bullsh!t.  The contrast lies in the amount of media exposure given each, and the amount of investigative effort undertaken on behalf of each.  Different standards for covering these things have been laid bare, and the revelation cannot be undone.

All of what I am saying really boils down to this point.  But IMHO you have to look at the reasons behind the different standards. The high exposure melodramatic attacks ares designed to paralyze, remove, or damage electorally a candidate and then sitting president.  The deafening silence is to help the other side.  The purpose is to sway the outcome of elections, by hook or crook and a disinformation campaign.  Those should be high crimes. 

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The information on the laptop might be bullsh!t, just as the Steele dossier was bullsh!t.  The contrast lies in the amount of media exposure given each, and the amount of investigative effort undertaken on behalf of each.  Different standards for covering these things have been laid bare, and the revelation cannot be undone.

If I was going to release a disinformation campaign on a candidate I would not wait till mail in voting has started, the timing is off for a disinformation campaign. 

 

[a_majoor]

Interesting, if counterintuative (compared to the mainstream) prediction:

https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1321596759160713216

 

[brihard]

Interesting, if counterintuative (compared to the mainstream) prediction:

https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1321596759160713216

At this point given how unprecedented so many events and dynamics are, best bet is to wait and see late next week. Any polling at this point has too much complete uncertainty to contend with, IMO.

 

[Infanteer]

Fivethirtyeight isn't reporting the same thing.  As Brihard says, you're liable to find what you want at this point.

 

[mariomike]

Interesting, if counterintuative (compared to the mainstream) prediction:

https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1321596759160713216

Better be right. The transition from "Individual-1" to "Defendant" can sometimes be pretty tough. 

 

[dimsum]

Whew.  I think I need to sit down.

How a fake persona laid the groundwork for a Hunter Biden conspiracy deluge
A 64-page document that was later disseminated by close associates of President Donald Trump appears to be the work of a fake "intelligence firm."

One month before a purported leak of files from Hunter Biden's laptop, a fake "intelligence" document about him went viral on the right-wing internet, asserting an elaborate conspiracy theory involving former Vice President Joe Biden's son and business in China.

The document, a 64-page composition that was later disseminated by close associates of President Donald Trump, appears to be the work of a fake "intelligence firm" called Typhoon Investigations, according to researchers and public documents.

The author of the document, a self-identified Swiss security analyst named Martin Aspen, is a fabricated identity, according to analysis by disinformation researchers, who also concluded that Aspen's profile picture was created with an artificial intelligence face generator. The intelligence firm that Aspen lists as his previous employer said that no one by that name had ever worked for the company and that no one by that name lives in Switzerland, according to public records and social media searches.

One of the original posters of the document, a blogger and professor named Christopher Balding, took credit for writing parts of it when asked about it and said Aspen does not exist.

Despite the document's questionable authorship and anonymous sourcing, its claims that Hunter Biden has a problematic connection to the Communist Party of China have been used by people who oppose the Chinese government, as well as by far-right influencers, to baselessly accuse candidate Joe Biden of being beholden to the Chinese government.The document and its spread have become part of a wider effort to smear Hunter Biden and weaken Joe Biden's presidential campaign, which moved from the fringes of the internet to more mainstream conservative news outlets.

An unverified leak of documents — including salacious pictures from what President Donald Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani and a Delaware Apple repair store owner claimed to be Hunter Biden's hard drive — were published in the New York Post on Oct. 14. Associates close to Trump, including Giuliani and former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, have promised more blockbuster leaks and secrets, which have yet to materialize.

The fake intelligence document, however, preceded the leak by months, and it helped lay the groundwork among right-wing media for what would become a failed October surprise: a viral pile-on of conspiracy theories about Hunter Biden.

[More on link]

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/how-fake-persona-laid-groundwork-hunter-biden-conspiracy-deluge-n1245387

 

[PMedMoe]

Whew.  I think I need to sit down.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/how-fake-persona-laid-groundwork-hunter-biden-conspiracy-deluge-n1245387

Wow.  So, the whole story was made up?? 

Guess it doesn't matter because the damage is already done.

Funny how people are so willing to believe all the bad press about one candidate, but provide excuses or cry "false news" when it comes to the other candidate.  :not-again:

 

[Remius]

Wow.  So, the whole story was made up?? 

Guess it doesn't matter because the damage is already done.

Funny how people are so willing to believe all the bad press about one candidate, but provide excuses or cry "false news" when it comes to the other candidate.  :not-again:

Especially when the info is coming directly from the other candidate’s camp.

 

[QV]

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/report-fbi-actively-investigating-hunter-biden-and-his-associates-for-money-laundering/

The Department of Justice took the rare step to confirm the existence of an ongoing investigation Thursday, confirming to Sinclair that the FBI is still conducting a federal money-laundering probe into the Biden family.

I wonder, is this true or not?  Did the DOJ confirm this?  I don't have the time to search...

 

[PMedMoe]

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/report-fbi-actively-investigating-hunter-biden-and-his-associates-for-money-laundering/

I wonder, is this true or not?  Did the DOJ confirm this?  I don't have the time to search...

I'll believe it when it comes from a valid DOJ source and not just Sinclair Broadcast Group.

 

[QV]

I'll believe it when it comes from a valid DOJ source and not just Sinclair Broadcast Group.

It's hard to say if even that is much more credible.  Did you believe the Steele dossier?  There were a few high level DOJ officials involved with that farce, Bruce Ohr for example. https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/bruce-ohr-retires-doj-after-informed-disciplinary

Actual video you can watch and listen to yourself though is pretty compelling, like say when Biden bragged about the quid pro quo of withholding a billion dollars to get a Ukraine prosecutor fired investigating the company connected to his son...the video is easy to find on Youtube. 

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/joe-bidens-bid-oust-ukraine-prosecutor-followed-intense

 

[Weinie]

Especially when the info is coming directly from the other candidate’s camp.

Yeah, like the Steele Dossier all over again.

 

[Remius]

Yeah, like the Steele Dossier all over again.

Glad someone else can be consistant in their view.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>Wow.  So, the whole story was made up?? 

The "64-page document" was made up.  The authenticity of the laptop and its contents has not been denied by the principals.  Those are two separate items; neither proves nor disproves the other.  The way the game is played, the laptop will be mentioned in articles about the "64-page document" to lull the weak-minded into assuming the latter discredits the former.  The same reasoning applies to Hunter and Joe: the latter is not responsible for the former's character weaknesses.

The debate is not whether the laptop is Hunter's, or whether the emails are genuine; rather, it is about the degree to which Joe Biden is implicated in any kind of graft suggested by the emails.

 

[a_majoor]

Could Trump flip California? For most observers this would seem to be a ridiculous question, but the article at the link suggests that Trump support may be far greater than most observers believe. While "flipping" California is a very outside edge of probability event as far as I can tell, events like the people of Los Angeles flipping off the Governor and having a spectacular fireworks display on the Fourth of July, the giant TRUMP sign erected alongside the Highway 405 and even Trump supporters openly driving around LA with Trump flags on their trucks (a hilarious tweet by Cardi B complained "they are everywhere") do suggest that even the coastal region isn't as firmly "Blue" as Progressives might believe

https://redstate.com/kiradavis/2020/10/30/group-405-trump-sign-campaign-ad-n272061

[Exclusive] Group Responsible for 405 Trump Sign Comes Forward With Killer Pro-Trump Campaign Ad
By Kira Davis | Oct 30, 2020 12:00 PM ET

On October 6th, 2020 Los Angeles woke up to a giant TRUMP sign in the foothills overlooking one of the busiest stretches of road in the United States, the 405 freeway.

A giant Trump sign overlooks the 405 freeway in Los Angeles, CA. Photo published with permission from owner October 30, 2020

The sign was immediately removed by the City of Los Angeles, citing traffic hazard worries, despite being on private land. Although the antics made national news, no one came forward to claim responsibility for the sign.

Until now.

RedState was contacted by a person referring to himself as “Mr. Black”, who wanted us to know that the group responsible for the sign had not only been planning it since 2018, they had also produced their own campaign ad in support of Trump and aimed at California voters. I was given permission to share it (continue scrolling for video) and it qualifies as a “must watch” in every sense of the term.

Not only is it quick peek into the entire stealth process of installing the sign, it is a dramatic call to action not unlike the recent viral GOP congressional ad narrated by Senator Mitch McConnell.

snip

If you had asked me in 2018 if I thought there was any chance in hell Trump could flip the Golden State I’d have said you were out of your mind for even suggesting it. In March of this year I changed my mind, and published an article predicting the possibility of a flip for Trump. That was before lockdowns, before school closures, before Uber and Lyft were threatening to leave the state, before businesses closed, before riots and looting, before Defund the Police…even before all these horrors California was feeling ripe for a flip, mainly due to the horrific AB5 law that decimated the gig economy and eliminated nearly 300 job categories overnight. I’d never seen so many true blue Democrats ready to cross the aisle.

If California does "flip", or turns Purple, it will be a self inflicted wound by the Progressives, since the AB5 law dramatically hurt a large part of the State economy ("Gig" workers are not just Lyft and Uber drivers, they are studio session musicians, craft trades in movie and TV studios, sound engineers and mixers at concerts and a host of other jobs). The arbitrary nature of the lockdowns impacts even big business, Disney is locked in a battle with the State government to reopen as well. Given that the US GDP has jumped 33% in the Third Quarter, many people in California are likely wondering why they have not partaken in this surge, another point against the Democrats.

How this actually plays out remains to be seen, I suspect that the "popular vote" will not be as much of a talking point this time around. But if California actually flips?

 

[mariomike]

Could Trump flip California?

That would be pretty impressive, considering Democrats flipped seven California congressional districts from red to blue in 2018.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_California

Seat Change in California: +7 Democrat  -7 Republican

 

[kkwd]

That would be pretty impressive, considering Democrats flipped seven California congressional districts from red to blue in 2018.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_California

Seat Change in California: +7 Democrat  -7 Republican

That was then, this is now. 2020 keeps punching us all in the face.  :cold:

 

[Brad Sallows]

"Flip California" is wildly overoptimistic thinking.  The Democratic VP candidate is a CA senator.  If Biden is as weak as some think, she could be the next president.  People don't tend to vote against candidates that might be in a position to deliver some serious pork.