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2024 Wildfire Season

California and the National Weather Service issued a Red Flag Warning for yesterday. While this is somewhat to be expected and is basically a mobilization order to expect a bad day there was some unique language I've never seen used:

"A Particularly Dangerous Situation". A polite way of saying that extreme conditions are occurring and it is not a normal red flag warning.

Also remember fires are modelled based upon "average" conditions and not extreme due to the lack of information on extreme events. The Fire Behavior Analyst will then try to adjust predictions to align with observed behavior to in turn model future spread. So while I hope this is a one day isolated event unfortunately it looks like the area will be facing a couple of challenging days.

On a more positive note the major fire in Victoria Australia was declared under control today after a couple of weeks of work.
 
California and the National Weather Service issued a Red Flag Warning for yesterday. While this is somewhat to be expected and is basically a mobilization order to expect a bad day there was some unique language I've never seen used:

"A Particularly Dangerous Situation". A polite way of saying that extreme conditions are occurring and it is not a normal red flag warning.

Also remember fires are modelled based upon "average" conditions and not extreme due to the lack of information on extreme events. The Fire Behavior Analyst will then try to adjust predictions to align with observed behavior to in turn model future spread. So while I hope this is a one day isolated event unfortunately it looks like the area will be facing a couple of challenging days.

On a more positive note the major fire in Victoria Australia was declared under control today after a couple of weeks of work.

That isn't good...

Fire hydrants ran dry as Pacific Palisades burned. L.A. city officials blame ‘tremendous demand’​

As wildfires raged across Los Angeles on Tuesday, crews battling the Palisades blaze faced an additional burden: Scores of fire hydrants in Pacific Palisades had little to no water flowing out.

“The hydrants are down,” said one firefighter in internal radio communications.

“Water supply just dropped,” said another.

By 3 a.m. Wednesday, all water storage tanks in the Palisades area “went dry,” diminishing the flow of water from hydrants in higher elevations, said Janisse Quiñones, chief executive and chief engineer of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, the city’s utility.

“We had a tremendous demand on our system in the Palisades. We pushed the system to the extreme,” Quiñones said Wednesday morning. “Four times the normal demand was seen for 15 hours straight, which lowered our water pressure.”

 
Clearly human-driven climate change, not forest mismanagement and general incompetence from governmental and city offices. It’s always the fire fighters on the front lines who pay the price.
 
Thoughts on this one?
Thoguhts:
1) constant off shore/on shore winds daily known as the Santa Anas which cause updrafts/down drafts along the mountain edge. Frankly it's right nasty ground to fight fires in due to winds funneling/slope effects/lack of moisture. Very glad my department at least doesn't deploy there normally.

2) The same mountain fringe is dry ground. It's full of dry grass/chaparral/mesquite brush moving upwards to grass/ponderosa pine forest and eventually the "green" higher elevation forest where enough moisture exists to support the Redwoods/Sequoia forests. This is the ecosystem everyone is building in in part due to land sprawl but also the demand for space.

3) tons of people on challenging terrain, dry fuels, slope and wind means evacuation and suppression is a challenge in these area. Also known as the Wildland Urban Interface and that is where many of the most difficult fires to fight exist. The Camp Fires and Paradise Fires are stories not just in suppression issues but also in blocked evacuation routes at the head of the fire.

4) PG&E - the power utility - has had a long history of maintenance issues. They are not the only company down there but are the dominate player in California...which was partially owned by the state of California too if I recall correctly...and had skimped on some needed work to keep dividend payments up. Add high heat => increase AC demand => power cables stretch => greater line contact with trees and vegetation => more fires => more lawsuits and payments for starting fires => less operating monies.

5) in an attempt to avoid liability for fires under certain conditions PG&E and others will cut power transmission to reduce fire starts. This also occurs in other states (read the Lahina, Hawaii fire report for example) and is starting to show up in Canada. The downside of cutting the grid off is that you then also have folks firing up generators to keep things like freezers cold...and not all those generators are set up well/right and cause different fires.

6) The tangent over logging practices frankly is bad information. From the couple of visits I've been down there logging wasn't going to change anything when you're dealing with LA or San Diego City. For smaller towns scattered in the hills it will help but drought and snowpack are as much drivers as the trees and we could spend a few beers arguing positions for/against things on this front.


7) In regards to the renewables yes California has pushed it heavily....but how else do you expect them to add more capacity to go with increasing populations if they've already maxed out hydro, nuclear is out due to fault lines, and some plants have aged out. Wood Co-gen, hydro imports from British Columbia already exist and adding solar or wind makes sense especially with the Santa Ana winds. Don't get me wrong...I also think they're pushing too far/too fast without investing in the grid infrastructure needed and when I was last in California a couple of years ago they were asking for voluntary use reductions from residents in a heat wave while anticipating double the demand needed if everything went electric. So some kernels of truth in there but also a lot of rhetoric that didn't help the message.

Short answer...it all depends and is complicated.
 
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