Azerbaijani and Armenian military Clashes

[MilEME09]

On the surface, it sounds like a noble idea.  But with Turkey backing one side, and Russia backing the other -- neither NATO nor Russia could be trusted to be acting in the best interest of the mission.  :2c:

May I recommend India then?

 

[blacktriangle]

Can't someone just fly over with some covids in the contrails and send them all to bed with the sniffles for a week or two till they calm down?  ???

Sorry dude, we reserve the chemtrails for use on domestic city dwellers.

As for the supercomputers...they are busy with Twitter. You guys should be fairly safe.

:Tin-Foil-Hat:

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A blog tracking losses

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2020/09/the-fight-for-nagorno-karabakh.html

The blog Oryxspioenkop is tracking the losses, as seen in the footage and Armenia has so far lost the following radars:

1x P-18

4x 36D6

1x SNR-125 (for S-125)

1x 5N63S (for S-300)

1x 19J6 (for S-300)

1x 1S32 (for 2K11 Krug)

1x 1S91 SURN (for 2K12 Kub)

 

[GR66]

Defence Blog (and others) are reporting that Iranian Republican Guard units are moving to the border region with Nagorno-Karabakh

https://defence-blog.com/news/army/iran-moves-troops-to-azerbaijans-border.html

Foreign Policy Magazine suggests that Tehran may be concerned about possible spillover of the conflict to the large Azeri minority within Iran (as Iran is opening its airspace to Russian aircraft supplying the Armenians in the conflict).

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/14/iran-azeri-ethnic-minority-nagorno-karabakh/

 

[The Bread Guy]

Kremlin info-machine:  we have a ceasefire ....

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Today, on November 9, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan have signed a statement on a complete ceasefire and the termination of hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone as of midnight, Moscow time, on November 10, 2020.

The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia will remain in their current positions. A peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation will be deployed on the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the corridor connecting it to the Republic of Armenia.

The internally displaced persons and refugees will return to Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjacent regions under the supervision of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

The parties will exchange prisoners of war, detainees and dead bodies.

The blockade of the economic and transport ties in the region will be lifted. The oversight of transport communications will be ensured with the involvement of the agencies of the Border Guard Service of Russia.

We proceed from the assumption that the agreements reached will create the necessary conditions for a lasting and full-scale settlement of the crisis over Nagorno-Karabakh on a fair basis and in the interests of the people of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Another "ceasefire" like we see in eastern Ukraine coming?

Also, Russian "peacekeepers" to the rescue ...

Russia is immediately deploying about 1,960 soldiers to the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan.

According to a press release issued Tuesday by Russian Defense Ministry, the first five Ilyushin Il-76MD Candid airlifters with Russian peacekeepers are heading to Nagorno-Karabakh from Ulyanovsk

“The first four Il-76 planes, which are redeploying Russian peacekeepers to the area of performing tasks in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, have taken off from the Ulyanovsk-Vostochny airfield. The aircraft are carrying the personnel of the peacekeeping formation, vehicles, armored vehicles and material resources,” the ministry said. The fifth plane also departed later.

The Russian Defense Ministry earlier announced that a total of 1,960 peacekeepers, 90 armored vehicles and 380 vehicles and pieces of special equipment would be sent to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russia is beginning to deploy its peacekeeping contingent to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone since 06:00 Moscow Time alongside with the withdrawal of Armenian forces, the Defense Ministry said.

“In accordance with the statement of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the President of the Russian Federation since 06:00 Moscow Time on November 10, 2020 Russia starts deploying a peacekeeping contingent to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone simultaneously with the withdrawal of Armenian Armed Forces,” the ministry said ...

Meanwhile, a bit of an "oopsie ..." (via RUS state media) ...

Azerbaijan downed Russian helicopter by mistake and is ready to compensate Moscow for the damages, the republic's Foreign Ministry announced.

"The helicopter was flying in the close vicinity of the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border at the time of active hostilities in the zone of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The flight was taking place after dark, at a low altitude, outside the air defense radar detection zone. Helicopters of the Russian Armed Forces had not been detected in said area previously," the ministry stated. According to the ministry, "in the context of the aforementioned factors and in the light of the tense situation in the region and the high military alert due to possible provocations of the Armenian side, the on-duty operational crew made the decision to use deadly force." ...

Map attached to give a bit of the lay of the land.

 

[Spencer100]

So is this a win for Erdogan?  It seem like it from the news reports? Thought?

Is the Armenian government going to fall?

Putin win or lose or tie?

 

[MarkOttawa]

So is this a win for Erdogan?  It seem like it from the news reports? Thought?

Is the Armenian government going to fall?

Putin win or lose or tie?

Paradoxically a win for both Erdogan (Azerbaijan overall victor) and Putin (Armenia ever more client state, Russian troops on the ground unlikely to leave for quite some time). Somehow the two leaders, although with major conflicts between them, keep managing to work things out so neither really gets a lasting black eye (cf. S400). Great Realpolitik diplomacy between states with a long history of strife and enmity.

The sort of diplomacy western states except for France (raison d'État--and maybe to some extent Italy) are simply not very good at because of constant concern over human and minority rights, democracy, rule of law etc.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[CBH99]

I know this isn't really related to the conflict in the area, but I have to admit...I'm personally embarrassed at how ignorant I am of the region.

I had no idea that Azerbaijani is one of the fastest growing tourist destinations in the world 



I've always understood there was ethnic tension in the area, but I hadn't taken the time to really educate myself about the area beyond basic news headlines.  Time to do some tea-time reading tonight.

 

[MilEME09]

Azerbaijan really came out on top here, and once we see official casualties released I think this may come as a complete strategic victory for Azerbaijan. They get to take back key parts of previously occupied territory, including a major city, secured freedom of movement to its western territories, and have Russian peace keepers preventing Armenia from attempting a counter attack.

 

[Weinie]

Azerbaijan really came out on top here, and once we see official casualties released I think this may come as a complete strategic victory for Azerbaijan. They get to take back key parts of previously occupied territory, including a major city, secured freedom of movement to its western territories, and have Russian peace keepers preventing Armenia from attempting a counter attack.

And why did they come out on top? Significant use of suicide drones/armed UAV's in the first week of the conflict, hammering the Armenian front-line kinetic forces.  There are some key takeaways here.

 

[FJAG]

And why did they come out on top? Significant use of suicide drones/armed UAV's in the first week of the conflict, hammering the Armenian front-line kinetic forces.  There are some key takeaways here.

I like looking at Al Jazeera to get a slightly different bent on the news. They've offered an interesting string of articles about the conflict in the last day including that Armenia's prime minster was pressured into the peace deal by his military and that there is also some concern within Azerbaijan that Russia's inserting itself into the process is raising a spectre of it becoming an occupying force in the region.

“The price for all of that is Russian troops on the ground in the form of peacekeepers and that may become an irritant in the Russian-Azerbaijani relationship over time.”

“Russia has reasserted itself quite convincingly in the short to medium term but over the long term, this peacekeeping operation may start to look like an occupying force.”

“What Russia has done is to essentially commit to a peacekeeping operation but without a political process or a fully fledged peace process to legitimate that process.”

And then there's the role Turkey will play in the peacekeeping process

Aliyev said Turkey will also take part in the peace-keeping process.

... or not.

The deal to end fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan does not entail any Turkish peacekeeping troops being deployed in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, the Kremlin said.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/10/tensions-mount-despite-nagorno-karabakh-peace-deal-live-news

:cheers:

 

[suffolkowner]

And why did they come out on top? Significant use of suicide drones/armed UAV's in the first week of the conflict, hammering the Armenian front-line kinetic forces.  There are some key takeaways here.

Yes, lots more information to digest on what needs to be done to prepare for a less limited engagement. But also time I think for the Armenians to regroup and figure out what they can and how they can better prepare going forward.

Meanwhile we in Canada haven't been able to procure a MALE UAV yet plus no GBAD, SHORAD, SP artillery or MRLS (insert appropiate emoji here)

 

[FJAG]

Meanwhile we in Canada haven't been able to procure a MALE UAV yet plus no GBAD, SHORAD, SP artillery or MRLS (insert appropiate emoji here)

:brickwall:

 

[Weinie]

I like looking at Al Jazeera to get a slightly different bent on the news. They've offered an interesting string of articles about the conflict in the last day including that Armenia's prime minister was pressured into the peace deal by his military and that there is also some concern within Azerbaijan that Russia's inserting itself into the process is raising a spectre of it becoming an occupying force in the region.

Yes, because the Armenian military was getting hammered by a more agile, modern, non "Hulk smash"-approach force. I'm surprised it took so long. The Armenian military lost between (depending on what you believe) between 1/3 and 3/4 of their front line heavy metal forces. They are, regardless, significantly weakened.

Russia is not inserting themselves per se. They, IMHO, looked at it pragmatically and determined that the Armenian side would lose any extended conflict, and  decided that now is the best time to cut their losses.

 

[MilEME09]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/11/nikol-is-a-traitor-armenia-pm-refuses-to-yield-to-opposition-after-nagorno-karabakh-deal

Seems some wanted Armenia to keep fighting a loosing war, there are conflicting reports the Armenian military pushed for the latest ceasefire due to mounting casualties. I do not blame them, if this kept going I bet Azerbaijan would push to link the western territories to Azerbaijan proper.

 

[FJAG]

Turkey is joining in the peacekeeping:

Turkey’s parliament approved the deployment of troops to join Russian forces at an observation post in Nagorno-Karabakh after Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a Russian-brokered ceasefire to end fighting over the enclave.

The mandate will allow Turkish troops to be stationed at the centre for one year as part of an accord between Ankara and Moscow to monitor the implementation of the ceasefire, which locked in territorial gains by Azerbaijan.

...

Russian officials have said Ankara’s involvement will be limited to the work of the monitoring centre on Azerbaijani soil and Turkish peacekeepers would not go to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said the centre will operate remotely, using drones and other technical means to monitor possible violations.

See whole article here.

:cheers:

 

[CBH99]

When I first read the headline earlier today, I was a wee bit skeptical about whether Turkey participating in a peacekeeping effort was a good idea. 

Ofcourse Turkey's parliament voted in favour of Ergodan's suggestion, they really don't have much of a choice.



Now that I've read a few other articles about the matter, it seems this arrangement with Russia might just be the only smart way to have Turkey involved. 

Limited to an observation center, and troops not allowed to venture into trouble areas.  Basically just privy to whatever is observed & beamed back to the observation center.

 

[suffolkowner]

Yes, because the Armenian military was getting hammered by a more agile, modern, non "Hulk smash"-approach force. I'm surprised it took so long. The Armenian military lost between (depending on what you believe) between 1/3 and 3/4 of their front line heavy metal forces. They are, regardless, significantly weakened.

Russia is not inserting themselves per se. They, IMHO, looked at it pragmatically and determined that the Armenian side would lose any extended conflict, and  decided that now is the best time to cut their losses.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1331325234041872386

how reliable the above is. I don't know and I believe these were Armenian forces just in N-K but pretty much devasted.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Being having interesting discussion over on tanknet about this conflict https://www.tanknet.org/index.php?/topic/41598-armenia-azerbaijan-conflict/

 

[FJAG]

Good article from Der Spiegel on the aftermath

Nagorno-Karabakh Settles in for Five Years of Uncertainty
Russian troops have arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh to keep the peace, but thousands of Armenians are having to flee the region. They are leaving nothing to the arriving Azerbaijanis – and it is unclear when normalcy might return.
By Christian Esch 24.11.2020,

The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh is not even 30 years old, and it is uncertain whether it will grow much older. Built on the ruins of the Soviet Union, it is now melting away like snow in the sun.

The Dadivank Monastery, which is more than 800 years old, looks as if it was carved into the mountains. If you want to understand what is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh these days, it is best to start here. It is good to have something permanent to hold on to.

On this particular Monday morning, there are few worshippers in the monastery. But there are other visitors: Down on the road below, which leads from Armenia to the city of Stepanakert, there is a Russian armored personnel carrier, a second one is parked in front of the monastery gate. A press officer barks at a group of freezing cold Russian journalists who have just arrived in an open truck.

The monastery of St. Dadi is a special place – for religious, art-historical, and, more recently, also political reasons. Russian President Vladimir Putin has explicitly placed it under Russian protection. Dadivank certainly needs it. It is located in the area from which the Armenian-controlled quasi-state of Nagorno-Karabakh – called the "Republic of Artsakh" – must withdraw. Azerbaijani troops will take over control again.

...

See rest of article here.

:cheers: