CAN Enhanced (Permanent?) Fwd Presence in Latvia

[KevinB]

We need decades of stable 2% GDP funding to be able to self-sustain as the lead nation of a multinational force, let alone conduct a forceable theatre entry.

I’m pretty sure the CAF could do a Forceable Entry into Aruba and maybe St Lucia

 

[markppcli]

I had the same cynical view but the more I look at what's been happening in Ukraine, the more I think that a properly equipped and supported LIB, integrated into a broader defence could be effective assuming a comprehensive plan and preparations are in place. I think much of that depends on how well manned, trained and equipped the four Latvian National Guard brigades become.

I do think it would have been better for the Cdn MN bde to have three mech BGs but I note that the Latvian mech bde is also currently established with two mech and one light bns. Maybe there is a concept, beyond mere lack of resources, that I'm missing.

I simply mean that if manning and money weren’t the major issues we’d have the LIB there permanently rather then as a fly over. Fly overs are a cost saving measure.


Fully agree with your points about the LIB needing to go in a build up phase, any thing else is frankly absurd. If Kaljningrad is actively shooting at NATO planes no one is flying troops in and we’re reducing it to rubble.

 

[FJAG]

I simply mean that if manning and money weren’t the major issues we’d have the LIB there permanently rather then as a fly over. Fly overs are a cost saving measure.

I'm in favour of a permanent presence, but we should utilize more posted, rather than rotations. The Afghan rotations ran to around 2,500 folks and a few years of that just about broke the army's back. Our commitment to Latvia is equally large not counting the flyover folks. And the CAF is down some 15,000 folks.

My guess is Latvia will become a long-term thing like 4 CMBG was in which case the math really sucks. I can't see maintaining that pace without resorting to flyover or multi-year posting - single folks at first, accompanied later - or a combination of the two. If we're going to lead the brigade then posting will have to become a large scale thing.

One thing. I can see it being a lot easier to have maybe several battalions fly onto prepositioned and maintained equipment for their major battalion exercises for a month or six weeks rather than have them do a full six month tour. Make one of those a summer exercise and you might even be able to raise reserve companies and a battery for that for a modified Milcon. That's a lot less stress on families.

 

[lenaitch]

I’m pretty sure the CAF could do a Forceable Entry into Aruba and maybe St Lucia

Low season only.

 

[Underway]

Sure, but will the CA and RCN specifically earmark that for flying things, or “hey that’s more $ for tanks/ships”?

I argue that making the RCN and CA responsible for their own organic air assets only increases knowledge, integration and understanding of the challenges and opportunities provided by those assets. The RCN had forgotten due to the twilight of the Sea King, how to integrate air and air had forgotten how to integrate navy. If the RCN was responsible for their own air, then I would argue that naval air would get more funding and attention, right now its the red headed stepchild of the Airforce.

 

[KevinB]

I argue that making the RCN and CA responsible for their own organic air assets only increases knowledge, integration and understanding of the challenges and opportunities provided by those assets. The RCN had forgotten due to the twilight of the Sea King, how to integrate air and air had forgotten how to integrate navy. If the RCN was responsible for their own air, then I would argue that naval air would get more funding and attention, right now its the red headed stepchild of the Airforce.

History has shown that both the RCN and the CA are quite willing to destroy their air arm out of complete stupidity and lack of understanding.

 

[dimsum]

I argue that making the RCN and CA responsible for their own organic air assets only increases knowledge, integration and understanding of the challenges and opportunities provided by those assets. The RCN had forgotten due to the twilight of the Sea King, how to integrate air and air had forgotten how to integrate navy.

I think that’s a combined training issue, not a “uniform colour” or “who has funding” issue. I’m not sure how integrated Tac Hel is to the CA.

If the RCN was responsible for their own air, then I would argue that naval air would get more funding and attention, right now it’s the red headed stepchild of the Airforce.

I’ve heard Tac Hel folks saying the same. And to a lesser extent, the Long Range Patrol fleet bc they work with navies most often.

 

[ueo]

I’m pretty sure the CAF could do a Forceable Entry into Aruba and maybe St Lucia

Didn't US try this in Grenada with mixed results?

 

[KevinB]

Didn't US try this in Grenada with mixed results?

Wasn’t really mixed - mission was a success.
There were a lot of screwups because every service wanted a piece and coordination wasn’t ideal.
JFE has come a long way since then.

 

[dapaterson]

Wasn’t really mixed - mission was a success.
There were a lot of screwups because every service wanted a piece and coordination wasn’t ideal.
JFE has come a long way since then.

Eagle Claw 2.0?

 

[KevinB]

Eagle Claw 2.0?

We do like to learn the hard way at times.

See Robert’s Ridge…

 

[Rifleman62]

I would be more concerned with the I&W and getting the cabinet comfortable with actively committing forces based on those I&W.

Thats the point. Getting the government to make a timely decision without dithering.

 

[PrairieFella]

Okay. But they will also watch our build-up. We cannot assume they will passively watch our build-up, and we must be prepared that they will use leather means to interdict that build-up. Theatre ingress must be tactical operation. This will be the most vulnerable moment for the LIB.


Planning to administratively drive through the Suwałki Gap in highway busses is probably also a bad plan. Russia can interdict that with fires. The LIB’s kit will be in Latvia so it cannot operate tactically until it is in Latvia. Someone needs to tactically deliver that LIB into Latvia, because assuming Russia will allow us space to administratively build-up is setting conditions for catastrophic loss before the line of departure.

I don't think the Suwalki Gap will be a big issue in the next war. About 3 minutes after a declaration of war Kaliningrad will be rubble. The main theatre imo will be the Baltic states and Poland as Russia tries one last time to reclaim some of its historical empire before their inevitable collapse and warlordization.

 

[Maxman1]

I don't think the Suwalki Gap will be a big issue in the next war. About 3 minutes after a declaration of war Kaliningrad will be rubble. The main theatre imo will be the Baltic states and Poland as Russia tries one last time to reclaim some of its historical empire before their inevitable collapse and warlordization.

And the Russian Baltic Fleet will probably be destroyed almost simultaneously.

 

[PrairieFella]

And the Russian Baltic Fleet will probably be destroyed almost simultaneously.

Exactly. This isn't the Cold War where there is rough parity in tech, manning, funding, etc. NATO is now so overwhelmingly overmatched compared to Russia that any Russian strategist that isn't fucking insane would realize they need to bite the Baltics and smash the NATO EFP and then immediately dig in and hope that their population is more likely to accept an attritional war than NATO's population. That's why these EFPs are so important imo and should be multinational divisions, not brigades.

 

[YZT580]

And the Russian Baltic Fleet will probably be destroyed almost simultaneously.

so if you are writing that from your position don't you think the russians have come to the same conclusion? Perhaps the signal to start the airlift will be the Russian baltic fleet heading for the Atlantic on advertised "training" manoeuvres.

 

[markppcli]

so if you are writing that from your position don't you think the russians have come to the same conclusion? Perhaps the signal to start the airlift will be the Russian baltic fleet heading for the Atlantic on advertised "training" manoeuvres.

In which case they’ll be unable to provide an extended AAAD capability and will be engaged by the rest of NATO, while the Baltic becomes an alliance lake for fires, strikes, and resupply. Perfect situation

 

[YZT580]

In which case they’ll be unable to provide an extended AAAD capability and will be engaged by the rest of NATO, while the Baltic becomes an alliance lake for fires, strikes, and resupply. Perfect situation

Russia historically has relied on weather and of course on mass assaults. They haven't relied upon their navy, in fact, to the best of my recollection the navy has generally gone down to defeat whenever it faced off against a peer group i.e. the Japanese.

 

[markppcli]

Russia historically has relied on weather and of course on mass assaults. They haven't relied upon their navy, in fact, to the best of my recollection the navy has generally gone down to defeat whenever it faced off against a peer group i.e. the Japanese.

I don’t like to draw on events from an over a century ago, in which a nations entire system of government has changed three times, to inform my view on how they’ll operate now. However if the Baltic fleet either leaves or is destroyed it becomes a moot point. And this whole concern that some how Russia will get the drop on us and mass / execute before any NATO counter is mute.

 

[ueo]

Wasn’t really mixed - mission was a success.
There were a lot of screwups because every service wanted a piece and coordination wasn’t ideal.
JFE has come a long way since then.

Gawd I hope so!