CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[ArmyRick]

But I'm not confident that ridding us of the Marketing Boards will make milk, cheese and butter any cheaper. I have yet to see ANYTHING get cheaper.

On this, you are correct. I will refer to a similar situation. You all know I raise beef and lamb (although next year may be my last year for beef), I raise beef in Canada, which is a brutal disadvantage. For 3-6 months of the year, we have to feed the cattle hay, haylage and /or silage. Our winters make this a reality.
That is the biggest cost factor in beef (and dairy to be honest).

SO when people are asking me why they see Aussie and Kiwi beef for HALF the cost of Canadian beef, we can not compete with nations who can keep beef cattle on pasture for 10-12 months of the year.

At that point, the only thing I have left is patriotic support, support local (reduce fuel consumption) and quality (I am getting a few new customers who are totally digging on our beef).

There is many aspects of food production that are tough on us up here and will have a cost to it.

At the end of the day, hungry people with little money will buy what is most affordable and not give a damn about anything else.

 

[HavokFour]

Poilievre's statement.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2091166385044938834

Text:

Conservatives are disappointed that the United States has chosen to impose further unjustified tariffs on Canada. They threaten the jobs and livelihoods of families right across our country.

Canadians must stand united to defend our country against these unfair attacks on our jobs and businesses. Canada cannot accept one-sided tariffs that will deindustrialize our country. Nor can we accept a bad deal. Instead, we must continue the fight for tariff-free trade. Later today, I will seek a call with the Prime Minister to discuss what we can do to fight for our workers, businesses, and economy. Conservatives will always put our country first.

Conservatives support action to protect Canadians and our industries targeted by these unfair U.S. tariffs.

We also need urgent economic reforms to restore growth, protect jobs and save our industry. That must include ending the industrial carbon tax, repealing anti-development laws, green lighting the 500 economic projects awaiting federal approval and major tax reforms to return investment to our country, reward work, and recharge our economy.

All Canadians must stand united for our workers, our businesses and our country.

 

[Genetk44]

Apparently its California wine and Bourbon (from Kentucky) were the big ones we put on our shelves.
American beer was never really a big seller up here.

The big one to watch out for here is Canadian hard liquors (Such as Forty Creek Rye and Canadian Club Whiskey), are 70% export product, the majority of it going to the USA.

All fine, to be "elbows up" and stand by your principles, but principles won't feed your family, pay your ever rising electrical bills, pay your mortgage or rent, etc.

Now, this will piss some of you off. Why does PM MC have roughly 90% of personal assets invested in American companies? It has been asked again and again. How "elbows up" is he really?

I spoke to my friend Dan, who is a third generation dairy farmer here in Ontario (he is 41 and considered a baby in the dairy farming circles). There are many in dairy who do want to see a gradual phase out of dairy quota system. It has not over the long term saved dairy farms. In Ontario, we have lost the vast majority of them in the last 50 years. My uncle gave up his quota in 2005 and refused to let his sons take it over. My grandfather (as I stated previously) was one of the lobbyist to help implement the system and before he died in 2012 (at the ripe young age at 99), he stated he was very disappointed by what the dad system had become.

Australia and New Zealand phased out their supply management systems for dairy. Older farmers got out and retired with their skin in tact. Younger more ambitious dairy farmers who put in the work and sought out new markets, grew their farms.

WTF are we holding onto with supply management?

I’m no economic genius and am not a farmer. But I do believe that our dairy supply management system does benefit the country in a general sense and does protect our dairy farmers from being swallowed by the juggernaut to our south. Using Australia and New Zealands decisions to get rid of their supply management systems as a comparison/ rationale to why we should do the same is not an apples to apples argument…..the issues in detail are far far diffrent.

 

[PrairieFella]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/livestory/us-canada-trade-war-new-tariffs-9.7310605

PM about to address the country.

 

[ArmyRick]

I’m no economic genius and am not a farmer. But I do believe that our dairy supply management system does benefit the country in a general sense and does protect our dairy farmers from being swallowed by the juggernaut to our south. Using Australia and New Zealands decisions to get rid of their supply management systems as a comparison/ rationale to why we should do the same is not an apples to apples argument…..the issues in detail are far far diffrent.

Explain how our supply management protects our farms (we have lost vast majority of our dairy farms in 50 years) and how is what other nations not relevant to our situation?

Got news for you, on this, many of us in farming (including dairy farmers) have had very long discussions in much detail about many of these subjects, and not just since Trump came back.

 

[FSTO]

SO when people are asking me why they see Aussie and Kiwi beef for HALF the cost of Canadian beef, we can not compete with nations who can keep beef cattle on pasture for 10-12 months of the year.

Although to finish those steers quicker (even if they are on pasture they are still costing money) you have to use grain and silage. Thing is the big feedlots need a lot of water and with the draining of the aquifers, the rising temps, and the lack of labour. Those big US feedlots will be seeing a reckoning in a few years.

 

[ArmyRick]

Even if fuel is cheap, you still have to harvest feed and seed for feedlots, which is another expense, and its a big one.

 

[ArmyRick]

protect our dairy farmers from being swallowed by the juggernaut to our south.

Or swallowed up by larger farms just down the road, right here at home. That is what happens to us too.

Dairy farms will get bigger as scale seems to be the only thing that matters now.

This applies to most farms period.

WE survive because my wife and I now work full time off farm and keep our farm within a small margin, enough to keep us going as a small farm, whether we expand, stay the same or get out, will be up to my sons in the future.

The USA has similar problems. I have been in contact for many years with American (and a few Canadian farms) that are sustaining profitably. Its a tight rope balancing act.

All this makes a difference on food production = part of cost of living.

 

[brihard]

Doug Ford’s letter to the PM from last week has been released. A bit of a peak behind the curtain.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2091168105208946710

 

[HavokFour]

Poilievre's statement.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2091166385044938834

Text:

Might as well include these 2 as well.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2091152801183285752

Lewis Text:

The Prime Minister was right to walk away from the negotiating table last night. I believe that Canadians are united at this crucial moment, on this crucial point: better no deal than a bad deal.

Accepting a deal that would enshrine unnecessary and destructive tariffs and undermine our ability to regulate the tech giants would have been disastrous for our workers, our industries, and our sovereignty. Prime Minister Carney clearly understood the message by rejecting the American offer.Wab Kinew is absolutely right: the president is weak and cannot be relied upon to honor a deal. We must stand firm, knowing that this is what the vast majority of Canadians expect from our government.

But what comes next is crucial. We're not out of the woods yet.You can count on the New Democrats to advocate for swift and substantial aid to affected workers and industries. This is also the time to quickly shift to a more independent economy that prioritizes housing, health care, the climate, and the cost of living.

What unites us and makes us strong is the way we take care of each other in tough times. It's for this Canada that the NDP will fight in this crisis and those to come.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2091140535545176184

 

[Brad Sallows]

But I do believe that our dairy supply management system does benefit the country in a general sense and does protect our dairy farmers from being swallowed by the juggernaut to our south. Using Australia and New Zealands decisions to get rid of their supply management systems as a comparison/ rationale to why we should do the same is not an apples to apples argument…..the issues in detail are far far diffrent.

"But I do believe that our [insert protectionist policy here] does benefit the country in a general sense and does protect our [insert industry here]."

"Benefits country" and "protects industry" are overwhelmingly the two most common excuses for protectionist policies. Trump's tariffs are all about benefiting the US (so he thinks, wrongly) and protecting certain industries (at the expense of others, as it turns out). I cannot see a path to reasoning that it is acceptable for Canada but not America.

 

[Genetk44]

Explain how our supply management protects our farms (we have lost vast majority of our dairy farms in 50 years) and how is what other nations not relevant to our situation?

Got news for you, on this, many of us in farming (including dairy farmers) have had very long discussions in much detail about many of these subjects, and not just since Trump came back.

Like I prefaced…I don’t claim to be an expert or a farmer….seems to me that supply management helps farmers with predicability on costs and prices…..if we go the route the Americans want our dairy farms ultimately shut down or are swalliwed by the US megacorps. Vis-a-vis ..Australia and NZ……they are literally islands thousands of miles across the ocean from any other large dairy producer unlike US were its a couple of hours milk-tanker drive from a state that has more dairy cows than all of Canada combined….and I’m not talking about California or Florida.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I expected the government to swallow a shit sandwich and try to convince us it's ice cream. Glad to be wrong here.

Impressed we told them to piss off. US (Gov) is typically whining like a bully when someone stands up to them.

 

[ArmyRick]

Like I prefaced…I don’t claim to be an expert or a farmer….seems to me that supply management helps farmers with predicability on costs and prices…..if we go the route the Americans want our dairy farms ultimately shut down or are swalliwed by the US megacorps. Vis-a-vis ..Australia and NZ……they are literally islands thousands of miles across the ocean from any other large dairy producer unlike US were its a couple of hours milk-tanker drive from a state that has more dairy cows than all of Canada combined….and I’m not talking about California or Florida.

We grow wine, America grows wine
We grow beef, America grows beef
WE grow lot of wheat, America grows lots of wheat

I could go on. Thinking our "protected sectors" are gonna collapse because of American access is not realistic, if anything, we will collapse those industries ourselves.

Think back to that New Zealand and Aussie Beef for HALF the cost of ours (and Americans can not even make it that cheap).

Ever ask why we protect some food production and not others?

 

[brihard]

Gotta say that PMMC’s line “we recognized that sometimes its signature was written in pencil” is a zinger. He said the quiet part out loud as hell.

 

[PrairieFella]

A couple things from thr PM address.

Anyone else notice that he subtlely put the oil, electricity and natural gas pistol on the table?

The fact that the Americans tried to limit our ability to make independent trade deals and tried fucking in our own internal affairs like language is odious, perfidious, vile, et al. How far theyve fallen.

I didnt realize we're doubling the rate of foreign investment compared to the rest of the G7. Neat.

To editorialize here, fuck the United States.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

American beer was never really a big seller up here.

Plus, most of them are already produced here in Canada under licensing agreements.

Oh and the US Secretary of Agriculture saying that the decline of Wisconsin Dairy farms are due to Canada? She can go fuck herself , because as I described above, modern agriculture caused the exodus from rural North America, it damn sure wasn't the Canadian Milk Marketing Board!

There are reason for the decline and like you say none have anything to do with Canadian Marketing boards. An AI search turned up the following examples:

Profitability and Market Volatility

Low milk prices and rising production costs (feed, fertilizer) have squeezed margins, forcing many farmers—particularly those with outdated facilities or high debt—to exit the industry.

Aging Workforce and Succession
The average age of farmers is increasing, with many approaching retirement without a next generation willing or able to take over.

Consolidation and Efficiency
The industry has shifted toward larger, more mechanized farms that benefit from economies of scale.

External Shocks
Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine disrupted supply chains and global markets, exacerbating financial vulnerabilities and accelerating closures.

In Wisconsin, some farmers have also shifted to beef production or sold land for green energy projects due to more attractive economic returns.

Plus, Americans complaining about Canadian Marketing Boards is the pot calling the kettle black because they are just as bad. Again, AI generated examples:

Tariff-Rate Quotas (TRQs)

The U.S. sets very small quotas for dairy imports that can enter at low or zero tariffs; imports exceeding these limits are subject to prohibitive tariffs that effectively halt further trade.

Regulatory Agencies
Imports are monitored by the FDA, USDA, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), with the Federal Import Milk Act (FIMA) specifically limiting milk and cream imports to protect domestic producers and public health.

 

[The Bread Guy]

For the record, the speech text via the info-machine.

Prime Minister Carney delivers remarks on Canada-U.S. trade negotiations

I would like to update Canadians on developments in our trade negotiations with the United States, why we are walking away from a bad deal, and what comes next.For much of our history, Canadians have been able to count on favourable trade conditions: a stable relationship with the United States...

www.pm.gc.ca

Archived here - captured text also attached.

 

[HavokFour]

PM Carney says Canada intends to match U.S. tariffs ‘dollar for dollar,’ after suspending trade negotiations

A new round of punishing U.S. tariffs on Canada went into effect early Saturday morning, as Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended trade negotiations minutes before the deadline.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Sounds like they were also trying to rope us into a kind of customs union with them. Perhaps even if it was just talk the mere thought of Canada being accepted into the EU or short of that, the EUCU (yes, non-EU members can join that) was starting to make people sweat a little.

A couple things from thr PM address.

Anyone else notice that he subtlely put the oil, electricity and natural gas pistol on the table?

The fact that the Americans tried to limit our ability to make independent trade deals and tried fucking in our own internal affairs like language is odious, perfidious, vile, et al. How far theyve fallen.

I didnt realize we're doubling the rate of foreign investment compared to the rest of the G7. Neat.

To editorialize here, fuck the United States.

I think my 1AM brain may have been on to something. Because it's really sounding like it (customs union) now.

[CBC]U.S. tried to restrict Canada's ability to get new trade deals

In the final hours of negotiations, the U.S. tried to include restrictions on Canada's ability to strike trade deals with other countries, Carney said.

"Unacceptable," the prime minister said flatly.

Plus, the U.S. tried to restrict Canada's protections of its languages, its culture and its sovereignty, Carney added. He did not provide details of what those restrictions looked like.

 

[Czech_pivo]

You and I are probably more closely aligned than either of us thinks.

Just down to shades of grey