Liberal Minority Government 2019 - ????

[Altair]

I wouldn't discount WEXIT in what ever form it takes (AB alone, or AB/SK...etc). The West has been the economic driver of this nation for a long time

GDP of Canadian Provinces.(2019)

Ontario-900 billion

Quebec-450 billion

Alberta- 352 billion

Alberta punches above its weight, but make no mistake, its a little over a 1/3 of Ontarios GDP.

and it seems to many that policies of the East are unfair and hell bent on suppressing the Western economy. When it gets to a point where it's more costly to stay than go (equalization/fundamental changes to rights/freedoms), it could move pretty fast.

Considering that AB is in for a lot of pain if its locked out of many markets, that calculus really isn't in favor of leaving. No matter how "bad" AB thinks it has it, it wont be any better by leaving.

It's about much more than just resources to market, but the US would likely love a closer trading relationship with resource rich territories such as AB and/or SK. There was a time when the West "wanted in", but I think years of snubbing and the present political environment have shifted that attitude.

The same USA that just killed the Keystone pipeline, and likely doesn't want to piss off Canada? That USA? Sure.

The Wildrose party is gaining momentum and the Maverick and PPC are on the map as far as polling goes, so I wouldn't write this off entirely, the next elections will say a lot. As Brad S states there are warning signs.

Win a few seats and I'll take notice.

Win a general election and I'll listen.

The peoples party shows up in polling right now, but I don't think anyone is paying any heed to Maxime Bernier.

 

[Altair]

Because it is fine. Inflicting damage on people doesn't drive them to surrender; it drives them to resist.

I thought the reason for leaving was that Canada is holding the Alberta economy back?

So sacrificing the Alberta economy in a tit for tat battle wouldn't....also hold the Alberta economy back?

I don't see separating leading to more pipelines or exports of Alberta oil, so what would be the point again?

All AB or SK has to do is maintain cordial relationships with bordering US states and they'd muddle through.

Right, because

A) The USA isn't self sufficient in energy production

B) They didn't just toss Keystone XL in the trash?

If having cordial relationships with bordering US states was enough, then why leave? Canada has that right now. Oh right, the US federal government can kill pipelines like Keystone.

Coastal British Columbians would hate AB more; interior BC'ers, I'm much less sure about. Those in Peace River country already feel closer to Albertans than West Coasters.

BC as a whole still isn't going anywhere, no matter what the interior says.

Imagining a complete cutoff of oil deliveries from AB to BC is worth working through to estimate just who would feel more pressure from tit-for-tat.

Because other oil producing nations wouldn't just supply BC by sea?

Ports are very useful.

AB: We wont sell you any oil!

BC: I'll import it from elsewhere then.

AB: ....not fair!

Like I said, interesting intellectual discussion for sure, but once it comes time to talk details, things always seem to fall apart.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I thought the reason for leaving was that Canada is holding the Alberta economy back?

For some people, it is. I don't care about it. The only scenario I'm interested in is political alienation, which requires a lot more dissatisfaction. But unlike QC separatists trying to sell the benefits of a separate QC, the political alienation scenario sells itself - it's the federal government that does all the work. All would-be separatists have to do is stoke the impressions of injustice and have a plan in waiting.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Because other oil producing nations wouldn't just supply BC by sea?

Sure, eventually. I used to live in Burnaby; I have a good idea of what the capacity for off-loading tankers is - assuming they all fit through at Lion's Gate bridge and are permitted to enter those waters. Meanwhile, I'm just laughing. As you say, "details".

 

[Altair]

For some people, it is. I don't care about it. The only scenario I'm interested in is political alienation, which requires a lot more dissatisfaction. But unlike QC separatists trying to sell the benefits of a separate QC, the political alienation scenario sells itself - it's the federal government that does all the work. All would-be separatists have to do is stoke the impressions of injustice and have a plan in waiting.

So if the LPC wins 3 seats in AB as they are currently on track to do, then problem solved?

 

[Altair]

Sure, eventually. I used to live in Burnaby; I have a good idea of what the capacity for off-loading tankers is - assuming they all fit through at Lion's Gate bridge and are permitted to enter those waters. Meanwhile, I'm just laughing. As you say, "details".

Short term pain, long term meh?

 

[Good2Golf]

So nothing else goes to and from the RoC to BC where they would have to negotiate transit through AB for?

Ironically most BC lumber goes south to the US and west to Asia, most lumber in Upper and Lower Canada comes from Quebec, so for the most part, aside from some cherries and peaches from the Okanagon, BC exports ($70B) and imports ($80B) more to the US, China and RoW, than it does to the RoC (export interprovincial $40B, imports interprovincial $55B…$15B from AB, which itself trades $17B to BC), so that kind of dilutes Alberta’s ability to be a dick to BC, or any of the other provinces. AB is trade neutral IN Canada ($69B export/$69B import), and AB, SK, NL and NU are significant net exporters internationally. AB exports $100B internationally - $31B more than with the other provinces, so getting its goods beyond Canada would be critical to its well-being. BC just need push $70B west and south, and it’s back home in time for tea and medals. Would RoC grind to a halt if Alberta pouted and held its breath? Well, Ontario alone…imports $24B of AB’s $69B to the RoC. Ontario itself imports $80B from the RoC…AB is only 1/5 of ON’s internal trade in, and about only a half of what ON and QC trade just between themselves, ($44B), let alone the RoC. Internationally, ON exports $265B and imports $323B…so ON alone imports 1345% more from outside Canada than it imports from AB - not sure economists would describe that as AB having ON’s back over a barrel…

Anyway, feel free to research or use some official
stats from BC (using StatsCan data)
• Interprovincial and International trade (p 16-17)
• Annual BC Origin Exports (International)

Funny thing is when one crunches the numbers, one is hard pressed to see the case where the RoC would even have to consider bowing to Alberta and take things as Alberta willed them to…the pipe dream of ABEXIT (towing along SK and perhaps even MB) needs a strong prescription to its rose-coloured glasses.

$0.02
G2G

 

[QV]

I guess we’ll see what happens, hopefully Canada remains whole but I doubt it. The Liberals or at least a loose left coalition will be in power for a long time and their divisive behaviour will erode national unity further and further.

 

[Altair]

I guess we’ll see what happens, hopefully Canada remains whole but I doubt it. The Liberals or at least a loose left coalition will be in power for a long time and their divisive behaviour will erode national unity further and further.

I continue to doubt even Alberta continues to be as right as it is.

I know its early days before the next Alberta election, but the NDP are currently leading in AB.

Not separatists, the NDP.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If the LPC wins this fall, and wins again in 3-4 years, and the CPC wins after that, it'll still reflect the customary proportion of time-in-government that has been a feature of the past 50 years.

1963-1979, LPC (16)
1979-1980, CPC (1)
1980-1984, LPC (4)
1984-1993, CPC (9)
1993-2006, LPC (13)
2006-2015, CPC (9)
2015-????, LPC (6+)

Roughly, 39 years LPC (~2/3), 19 CPC (~1/3).

I see no trending risk of irreconcilable political exclusion outrage yet. The complication is that the gap between political and social attitudes (and the intensity of expression generated) in 2021 is much greater than in 1971, a small minority of the left that likes to punish those who oppose it is creating hard feelings all out of proportion to its size, and the political centre-left and left in Canada are pretty smug right now and are unlikely to "fix a hard problem while it is still easy". A year of powerlessness in 2021 is more aggravating than a year in 1971. If that assertion seems unfounded, consider the behaviour of the political left that begins approximately 12 hours after election night.

Short term pain, long term meh?

No. If the existing marine terminals can't handle the required volume, it would take years to overcome the legal obstacles and complete construction. The political fight would undoubtedly be settled long before then. Not sure how tit-for-tat starts, though, so I don't see the worth of discussing it. If AB were to separate and simply indicate that it wants to manage and mind its own business and continue exporting commodities, what stones do we imagine anyone would be throwing?

 

[Altair]

If the LPC wins this fall, and wins again in 3-4 years, and the CPC wins after that, it'll still reflect the customary proportion of time-in-government that has been a feature of the past 50 years.

1963-1979, LPC (16)
1979-1980, CPC (1)
1980-1984, LPC (4)
1984-1993, CPC (9)
1993-2006, LPC (13)
2006-2015, CPC (9)
2015-????, LPC (6+)

Roughly, 39 years LPC (~2/3), 19 CPC (~1/3).

Did the LPC not win seats in AB during these times?

I see no trending risk of irreconcilable political exclusion outrage yet. The complication is that the gap between political and social attitudes (and the intensity of expression generated) in 2021 is much greater than in 1971, a small minority of the left that likes to punish those who oppose it is creating hard feelings all out of proportion to its size, and the political centre-left and left in Canada are pretty smug right now and are unlikely to "fix a hard problem while it is still easy". A year of powerlessness in 2021 is more aggravating than a year in 1971. If that assertion seems unfounded, consider the behaviour of the political left that begins approximately 12 hours after election night.

Again, like transmountain doesn't exist.

No. If the existing marine terminals can't handle the required volume, it would take years to overcome the legal obstacles and complete construction. The political fight would undoubtedly be settled long before then. Not sure how tit-for-tat starts, though, so I don't see the worth of discussing it. If AB were to separate and simply indicate that it wants to manage and mind its own business and continue exporting commodities, what stones do we imagine anyone would be throwing?

Tariffs at the border for 1, rejection of entering NAFTA second, Albertas portion of the national debt third.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Those are all matters concerning the federal government of Canada. The province of BC has incentives and authority to act in its own interests to keep commodities moving that it needs for itself or profits from moving through its ports. I can think of few ways to push BC towards separatism faster than to demand BC fight an economic war chosen by central and eastern Canadian politicians.

 

[Altair]

Those are all matters concerning the federal government of Canada. The province of BC has incentives and authority to act in its own interests to keep commodities moving that it needs for itself or profits from moving through its ports. I can think of few ways to push BC towards separatism faster than to demand BC fight an economic war chosen by central and eastern Canadian politicians.

Keep dreaming big dreams.

 

[Good2Golf]

If the LPC wins this fall, and wins again in 3-4 years, and the CPC wins after that, it'll still reflect the customary proportion of time-in-government that has been a feature of the past 50 years.

1963-1979, LPC (16)
1979-1980, CPC (1)
1980-1984, LPC (4)
1984-1993, CPC (9)
1993-2006, LPC (13)
2006-2015, CPC (9)
2015-????, LPC (6+)

Roughly, 39 years LPC (~2/3), 19 CPC (~1/3).

I see no trending risk of irreconcilable political exclusion outrage yet. The complication is that the gap between political and social attitudes (and the intensity of expression generated) in 2021 is much greater than in 1971, a small minority of the left that likes to punish those who oppose it is creating hard feelings all out of proportion to its size, and the political centre-left and left in Canada are pretty smug right now and are unlikely to "fix a hard problem while it is still easy". A year of powerlessness in 2021 is more aggravating than a year in 1971. If that assertion seems unfounded, consider the behaviour of the political left that begins approximately 12 hours after election night.

Interesting that you conduction some historical revisionism rebranding the PCs into the CPC, which most will accept was an intended (tricked?) ‘merger of equals’ of the Reform-turned-Canadian Alliance with the Progressive Conservatives, and which most will also acknowledge has reverted closer to the further right Canadian Alliance. I doubt the CPC will ever recover many of the Atlantic PC seats lost in 2015, as it is a fundamentally different beast than the PCs that Atlantic Canadians were familiar and comfortable with.

I foresee the LPC only becoming more entrenched in the years to come, and the LPC/CPC ratio skewing closer to an 80/20 ratio than your near-historical 67/33.

Regards
G2G

 

[Brad Sallows]

Keep dreaming big dreams.+

It is easy enough to imagine the BC Liberals, who are not particularly closely affiliated with the federal LPC, telling the feds to go pound sand if the feds demand BC do something to punish AB for leaving Canada.

 

[Good2Golf]

It is easy enough to imagine the BC Liberals, who are not particularly closely affiliated with the federal LPC, telling the feds to go pound sand if the feds demand BC do something to punish AB for leaving Canada.

Ottawa? Vindictive to all parties? Never!!!

 

[Brad Sallows]

Interesting that you conduction some historical revisionism

I wasn't trying to revise anything. It stems from some general ideas I've expressed here before: FPTP electoral system is valuable because it allows sizeable minorities to elect plural majorities; in Canada, that means conservatives control the federal government some of the time (I thought 40%, but closer to one-third) through recent history. I suppose the caveat "as long as the big conservative tent stays up" applies. Majoritarians argue for systems that deliver governments to simple majorities, and think that is good for the health of a country. I suspect 55% of people having the government they want 100% of the time is not healthy.

If election outcomes skew even more and the more-conservative sub-faction is rather more concentrated, I suppose it shortens the time required for dissatisfaction to move people to do something about their discontent.

As with any crisis, it won't be seen coming.

 

[Good2Golf]

It wasn’t the FPTP plurality and majoritans’ argument as much as what seemed to be glossing over the fundamental change to Conservatism in Canada. While the LPC has had some notable changes even since Pearson days, it is still the LPC, and won’t change composition or recipe any time soon. Whereas today’s Big Blue Tent is a lot smaller than than when it was PC or even CA+PC. I wouldn’t have had an issue with ‘Con.’ In brackets but to label Clark/Campbell/Mulroney as CPC is not ingenuous IMO. Your call, though.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Sure, I should either have written PC for the periods appropriate, or "liberal" and "conservative". It's definitely a fair criticism since the PC of that time included a slice of members who eventually became BQ.

 

[RangerRay]

It is easy enough to imagine the BC Liberals, who are not particularly closely affiliated with the federal LPC, telling the feds to go pound sand if the feds demand BC do something to punish AB for leaving Canada.

I’m not sure about that. While both Socred and NDP governments made lots of political hay getting in pissing matches with the feds, the BC Liberals have made a habit of butt-snorkeling whom ever is in power in Ottawa. With the Lib/Con coalition shifting more Lib, I can’t see that happening anytime soon.