Liberal Party of Canada Leadership

[Altair]

He's not even leader yet but people are foaming at the mouth to discredit him.

 

[Jarnhamar]

He's not even leader yet but people are foaming at the mouth to discredit him.

So people should wait until he's the leader of a party to point out obvious issues with his merits as a leader?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

We ought not to forget that Justin Trudeau is not alone in the race; Deborah Coyne, for one, is also in.

This old article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, gives a fairly flattering portrait:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/deborah-coyne-enters-liberal-leadership-race/article4373408/

Unlike M. Trudeau, Ms Coyne has some "bottom, " some gravitas and has thought, spoken and written about issues.

She also shares the same genes with Justin.

Which in today's Canadian, Liberal politics, seems to be the deciding factor.

Something like the House of Windsor, or the Hapsburgs, or some Japanese Dynasty.

If your related to that ponce Pierre, you're destiny is predefined.

Let's start a dialogue on the other side of the equation. 

Margaret Trudeau.

Some in the race also share her genes.

Maybe one of Mick Jagger's offspring will throw his hat into the ring next.

Of course Power Corporation has nothing to do with any of this :

 

[JorgSlice]

He's not even leader yet but people are foaming at the mouth to discredit him.

Please tell us about all of his amazing political successes that make him the "natural-born leader of Canada" the Liberals think he is.  :

He's got diddly-squat and everyone should rightfully know well in advance in order to keep him away from ending up at the helm of the LPC. Only problem is, silly Liberals will probably give him "Command" anyway.

Oh well, at least if JT ends up leader of the LPC it'll basically guarantee another Conservative majority for a long time 

 

[OldSolduer]

I think it would be like giving command of a battalion to the new lieutenant because he has nice hair and spiffy boots.

"ponce Pierre"  - that made  me giggle.  ;D

 

[Edward Campbell]

Justin Trudeau is, broadly, about as well qualified for party leadership and, eventually, high office as was Stephen Harper in 2003 ~ relatively young (Harper was 44 when he and Peter MacKay "united the right" under Harper's leadership), untested in parliament and with minimal "heavyweight" private sector experience.

I would argue that Harper's understanding of Canada, all of Canada, and the consequential evolution of his policy ideas was gradual but steady from 2006 to 2011; I think that a few year as Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition and as a minority PM changed Prime Minister Harper into a committed centrist, a gradualist who wants to lead 'softly.'

Let's imagine that M. Trudeau wins the leadership in 2013; unseats Thomas Mulcair in 2015 and becomes opposition leader; reduces Harper successor to a minority in 2019 and becomes PM in, say, 2022. Do you really think that he, and his understanding of all of Canada, will not have matured/changed?

We need to wish the Liberal Party of Canada well. We know that the Conservatives will grow stale, corrupt and disconnected after too many years in power ~ it happens to all political parties in all real democracies, even Japan, Taiwan and, sooner or later, Singapore. Right now the "government in waiting" is the NDP. That is, I suggest, a bad choice for Canada so we, all Canadians including hard-core Conservatives like me, need a centrist "government in waiting" and, baring a seismic shift in Canadian politics that means the Liberals.

 

[Old Sweat]

With respect, do you really think the Liberals are willing to wait until 2022 to return to power. By then they will have sat on the opposition benches since early 2006, for more than 16 years. The only time they have been out of power for a longer time was during the second Macdonald era, following the defeat of Alexander Mackenzie in the 1870s. Moreover they will have gone through three leaders and an interim one in the 2006-2013 period. Do they have the brains and long term view to toil under one person for nine years and three elections?

Prime Minister Harper, in his three years in opposition, united the right, moved his branch to the centre and did all the hard, grunt work. He then fought two elections, ultimately becoming PM in a minority in 2006. Does the Young Dauphin, and his party, have the stamina for a much longer haul?

 

[GAP]

And then there's this being thrown into the works......good PR for Justin...

One to watch... Sacha Trudeau
By: Staff Writer 10/6/2012
Article Link

The middle brother of the three sons of Pierre Trudeau is stepping up as senior adviser to big brother Justin's campaign for leadership of the Liberal Party.

Will he and Justin become Canada's Bobby and Jack Kennedy, surely the most famous of American political brothers? Even the ever-colourful George and Jeb can't displace them.

Justin chose the birthday of third Trudeau brother Michel, killed in an avalanche in 1998, to announce his run for the leadership, no doubt a way to include all three brothers in the momentous occasion.

So far, the debate has been over Justin's ability to step out from Pierre's shadow. Will having a brother as adviser help or hurt?

That would be hard to say. Sacha, a journalist and documentary filmmaker, has kept a relatively low profile up to now, so the Canadian public knows little about him. Even Wikipedia seems to have missed the birth of his third child. We do know he has said he has no interest in being involved in politics.

But longtime Trudeau family friend Jack Austin, a former B.C. senator, says the Trudeau boys had the best of groundings in public-policy matters and are well prepared for public life.

Canadians will be interested to see just how the Trudeau brothers story plays out.
end

 

[Edward Campbell]

With respect, do you really think the Liberals are willing to wait until 2022 to return to power. By then they will have sat on the opposition benches since early 2006, for more than 16 years. The only time they have been out of power for a longer time was during the second Macdonald era, following the defeat of Alexander Mackenzie in the 1870s. Moreover they will have gone through three leaders and an interim one in the 2006-2013 period. Do they have the brains and long term view to toil under one person for nine years and three elections?

Prime Minister Harper, in his three years in opposition, united the right, moved his branch to the centre and did all the hard, grunt work. He then fought two elections, ultimately becoming PM in a minority in 2006. Does the Young Dauphin, and his party, have the stamina for a much longer haul?

I'm not sure (s)he, the next Liberal leader will have much choice. My current guess is that the 2015 election is still Harper's to lose give away.

M. Trudeau is trying, albeit a bit hesitantly, to signal a centrist position; he has said no more NEP or pitting one region against the other which my secret decoder ring says means "I'm eschewing my father's loony left economic dreams, no need to worry" and he said he's standing up for the middle class which the same secret decoder ring tells me means "I'm conceding the real (skilled blue collar) middle class and the (generally professional white collar) upper middle class to Prime Minister Harper and I'm going to fight Thomas Mulcair, tooth and nail, for the large, lower middle/working class". Further, notwithstanding the current All Justin/All the Time gushing media coverage, the media will split on Trudea ~ some of the media is, already, inclined against him: part, mostly at the journalist level, is philosophically inclined towards the NDP, and another part, mostly at the journal level is in the Tory camp. While there is a solid Liberal media it, and M. Trudeau, will have to contend with opposition from both flanks. Finally, I remain convinced that M. Trudeau must, realistically, wage a two phase campaign:

          Phase 1 aims to secure the opposition benches in 2015 - of course the Liberal leader will campaign to become prime minister but Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is the real target; and

          Phase 2 aims to secure 24 Sussex Drive - that's a realistic, but still difficult 2019 objective but the Tories will not go down easyily and reducing them to a minority will still be a victory.

The Liberals can hope for power in 2015 but a more realistic date is 2019 or beyond. If M. Trudea is their choice for leader then I think they must, finally, stick with him, even if it takes a long time.

Stephen Harper's aim has been and still is to change Canada in some fundamental ways ~ if he's doing as well as many people seem to think (worry) then he will make life hard for Liberals.

 

[Maxadia]

We know that the Conservatives will grow stale, corrupt and disconnected after too many years in power ~ it happens to all political parties in all real democracies, even Japan, Taiwan and, sooner or later, Singapore.

I think we also have to consider in the equation that the Canadian people have a habit of turning on governments simply BECAUSE they have been in power too long.  Yes, corruption happens, but it's also kind of like we expect it to, "so let's give the new guys a shot because they obviously haven't been corrupted by years of power."  It's like we think they can't be corrupt because they've only been the opposition.

As for Sacha, how noble and nostalgic.  The two brothers now, are following in their father's footsteps -  "if only Michael had been around as well", people will be thinking.  Who wouldn't want to have three sons do the same?

That could count for a LOT for Mr. Trudeau's campaign.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I really wish the press would stop comparing the Trudeau's with the Kennedy's.

There is not even the remotest similarity, except the brother part.

The Trudeau's don't even come close.

 

[aesop081]

Oh well, at least if JT ends up leader of the LPC it'll basically guarantee another Conservative majority for a long time 

Methinks you are underestimating the stupidity of Canadians.

 

[Edward Campbell]

...
The Trudeau's don't even come close.

Actually, I think they do ... both are political and intellectual lightweights exploiting, in one case, dad's money, and, in the other, his name and money. Jack Kennedy parlayed good looks, a good war, youth, an indifferent political career, zero ideas and loads of money into the highest office in the land; Justin Trudeau will try to do the same, minus the good war.

 

[GAP]

Justin Trudeau will try to do the same, minus the good war.

Or, if he becomes the PM, he could bring back the eternal Peace Keeper with an intrusion into Sudan(don't worry, it will still be going on)  in the name of all the shrieking lefties out there...... :

 

[a_majoor]

Or, if he becomes the PM, he could bring back the eternal Peace Keeper with an intrusion into Sudan(don't worry, it will still be going on)  in the name of all the shrieking lefties out there...... :

As if I didn't already have enough reasons to hope the LPC will never return to power.... :rage:

 

[Edward Campbell]

A cautionary note, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from iPolitics, for M. Trueau:

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/10/09/paul-adams-justin-trudeau-beware-the-numbers-are-not-necessarily-your-friends/

Justin Trudeau beware: the numbers are not necessarily your friends

By Paul Adams

Oct 9, 2012

Numbers are such wonderful bright shiny pointed things. If you work at a polling company, as I did for a time, there really is nothing quite so exciting as opening up the newest crop. They have the smell of fresh cut grass.

As your eyes race, tumbling through the data, you are at turns utterly surprised at the unexpected and delighted when your personal hunches are confirmed.

For a few minutes you feel as if you are in the sole possession of this magic thing. You are torn between the impulse to run out and tell your neighbour what you have and the desire to hoard it greedily to yourself.

Paul Adams is a veteran of the CBC, the Globe and Mail,
and EKOS Research. He has taught political science at
the University of Manitoba and journalism at Carleton
where he is an associate professor. His new book
Power Trap, on the dilemma of Canada’s opposition
parties will be published in September.

One of the weirdest parts about bonding with your dataset is how proud you are: your numbers are so tall and beautiful and smart – so filled with potential.

But love, as Shakespeare said, is blind.

And speaking of love, I come to the case of Justin Trudeau. A Canadian Press news story the other day based on a Harris/Decima poll said that 36% of Canadians “would be certain or likely to vote Liberal in the next election if Mr. Trudeau is at the party’s helm.”

That would be a fantastic turn for the Liberals who have mostly been running a poor third in the polls to the Conservatives and the NDP, as they did in the last election.

We know that polls like this early in a leadership race are often not much more than a measure of name recognition. Justin Trudeau has the most storied last name in Canadian politics. His possible opponents, even the former astronaut Marc Garneau, could only expect to become household names by winning the leadership.

Yet Harris/Decima’s chairman, Allan Gregg, one of the most eminent people in the polling business, who has been outspoken in warning about the dangers of reading too much significance into polls certainly did not understate this survey’s meaning to the future of Canadian politics.

“Justin Trudeau — more than any other prospective candidate we tested — holds the best prospect for a revival of the Liberal party,” Gregg told CP. “In fact he is the only candidate we tested that has the potential to broaden the Liberal vote beyond its current base.”

The headline on the CP story on the Globe and Mail website proclaimed that the poll had shown that “Trudeau could recreate [the] Liberals.”

Perhaps Mr. Gregg expressed more caveats than found themselves into the article, but he was even quoted as saying that the survey would, “debunk the myth that the Trudeau name is a liability in the province of Quebec or among francophones.”

That seems like overegging the cake just a little bit. Before we “debunk the myth” of the Trudeau name in Quebec, perhaps we should wait to see whether Justin Trudeau’s leadership rivals are able to re-stoke the fires of antagonism towards the Trudeau of the War Measures Act, the patriation of the constitution without the Quebec government’s consent, and opposition to Meech Lake. And how he handles it if they do.

Perhaps we should wait to see how this all looks when the PQ and the BQ, not to mention Tom Mulcair and Stephen Harper, are done with Justin Trudeau.

So far as I can tell, the Harris/Decima poll did not actually ask respondents to choose between Justin Trudeau and the leaders of the other parties. At least in its previous polling on this subject, the company simply asked people whether they were more or less likely to vote Liberal with Justin Trudeau at the helm, without mentioning the other parties or party leaders. Nothing wrong with such a question, so long as it is cautiously interpreted.

It is worth remembering as well that even the arch-federalist Stéphane Dion delivered the Liberals a large bounce in Quebec immediately after becoming leader, but that did not really “debunk” Dion’s unpopularity in French Quebec, as subsequent events proved.

As the American polling guru, Nate Silver, has pointed out, a candidate for the U.S. Senate with a five percentage point lead in the polls the day before the election has a 95% chance of winning. However, a similar lead a year before an election doesn’t mean much more than the flip of a coin.

If you love the sound of Newt Gingrich’s voice as I do — and evidently he does himself  – you’ll love this clip from the Republican presidential nomination race last December when he was ahead in the polls.

“I’m going to be the nominee,” Gingrich told ABC news. “It’s very hard not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high I’m going to be the nominee.”

Gingrich ended up carrying two states: one more than Ron Paul and 40 fewer than Mitt Romney.

I wish Justin Trudeau luck. As many commentators have noted, he is an uncertain quantity. Like so many polls, he is full of potential but a long way from being proven in the hard slog of a leadership race, or an election campaign.

Just one word of advice to him and to the Liberals considering his nomination: Beware of pollsters bearing numbers.

I'm sure a lot of Canadians wish M. Trudeau well; he seems a very likable man; but will we vote for him when the issue is "who do you want to manage Canada?" I'm not sure the polls address that question, yet.


Edit: careless typo/spelling error  :-[  (It's been a bad morning for that.)

 

[vonGarvin]

I'm sure a lot of Canadians wish M. Trudeau well; he seems a very liable man; but will we vote for him when the issue is "who do you want to manage Canada?" I'm not sure the polls address that question, yet.

[humour tangent]
Was that typo intentional?  Or is Freud at work?  ;D

[/humour tangent]

 

[Edward Campbell]

[humour tangent]
Was that typo intentional?  Or is Freud at work?  ;D

[/humour tangent]

It was simple carelessness on my part, but I cannot leave it uncorrected as I doubt that M. Trudeau or his campaign tea will be held liable (responsible) for much of anything over the next few months. They will, eventually ... when the Conservative and NDP negative ad teams get organized.

 

[a_majoor]

It was simple carelessness on my part, but I cannot leave it uncorrected as I doubt that M. Trudeau or his campaign tea will be held liable (responsible) for much of anything over the next few months. They will, eventually ... when the Conservative and NDP negative ad teams get organized.

Phooey. I never get invited to campaign teas...... ;D

 

[Edward Campbell]

Phooey. I never get invited to campaign teas...... ;D

Well of course you don't; they, the campaign teas, are for ladies only ~ it's one of the few bits of sanctioned sexism we still have.