Political impacts of Ukraine war

[The Bread Guy]

My, those UKR drones get around

Estonia expects Ukraine to improve drone control after airspace breaches

Estonia's government has said it expects Ukraine to improve control over its drones after a series of airspace breaches on the borders of the Baltic states in recent months.

news.err.ee

 

[Kirkhill]

A Dominic Nicholls report from a Ukraine operations room.

Kill zone from Front Line Own Troops to 30 km into the enemy rear with $2000 fibreoptic drones modified locally everyday.

5 km front for a brigade with one factory supplying 2000 FPVs a monthfor the brigade. 200 or so for a battalion.

No vehicular movement within the kill zone.

Russians dropped off 20 km from their destination, advancing on foot with no kit, led on the route by drones hoping that their kit will be delivered by drones once they are in position.

And AI autonomy

....

already here.

Inside the Ukrainian war room turning the tide on Russia

We get exclusive access to the secret command HQ to witness new technology ruthlessly ‘deleting’ Putin’s army

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Colin Parkinson]

And a estimate that it costs Ukraine $882 to kill a Russian solider.

 

[Eaglelord17]

And a estimate that it costs Ukraine $882 to kill a Russian solider.

Thats some good value right there.

Considering Afghanistan was approximately 13 million per direct kill and Vietnam was 168-200k (1970 dollars) the West has a lot to learn from them. And that is facing off against a much inferior force, let alone a peer to peer or even dominate force.

 

[Kirkhill]

Deleted

 

[Czech_pivo]

Thats some good value right there.

Considering Afghanistan was approximately 13 million per direct kill and Vietnam was 168-200k (1970 dollars) the West has a lot to learn from them. And that is facing off against a much inferior force, let alone a peer to peer or even dominate force.

That's their cost because their wages and support staff/services is more than likely much much lower than a NATO country.

But, its still amazingly lower than the above quoted numbers/costs.

 

[GR66]

That's their cost because their wages and support staff/services is more than likely much much lower than a NATO country.

But, its still amazingly lower than the above quoted numbers/costs.

Personally I wouldn't put too much stock in any $ vs casualty calculation for any war. There are so many factors involved in the effectiveness/ineffectiveness of any military that can wildly swing the number of casualties, never mind the difficulty of calculating an actual cost.

 

[KevinB]

Thats some good value right there.

Considering Afghanistan was approximately 13 million per direct kill and Vietnam was 168-200k (1970 dollars) the West has a lot to learn from them. And that is facing off against a much inferior force, let alone a peer to peer or even dominate force.

Kill figures during a war (and in cases of fairly non permissive areas after) are next to impossible to work out. Tons of casualties got dragged across the border in Afghanistan into Pakistan as well, to often be replaced by more. Even closed sources on Ukraine and Russian casualties can vary dramatically.

Additionally Afghanistan and Vietnam where primarily COIN operations without significant engagements of conventional forces at the levels the Russian invasion of Ukraine has seen.

Plus those giant FOB’s don’t fund themselves. Setting up a GreenBeans, Buger King, Dairy Queen and multiple base exchanges is fairly costly overhead.

Additionally the US and Australia in Vietnam, and NATO/Coalition members in Afghanistan where not getting a lot of donated equipment, nor where they a war for national survival that tended to focus one’s effort.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Someone, somewhere has got some serious explaining to do.

Canadian intelligence officers visit Quebec company after sniper rifles turn up in Russia | Globalnews.ca

The briefing took place after Global News reported in October that social media posts showed Cadex rifles for sale in Moscow and in the hands of Russian snipers.

globalnews.ca

Canadian intelligence officers visit Quebec company after sniper rifles turn up in Russia​

"...... October that social media posts showed Cadex rifles for sale in Moscow and in the hands of Russian snipers."

"While some of the Canadian-made guns appeared to have been captured from Ukrainian forces, others looked brand new and still had their product tags." - Hopefully not the case of the new ones being sold off by bad actors in Ukraine to the Russians.....

 

[Halifax Tar]

Someone, somewhere has got some serious explaining to do.

Canadian intelligence officers visit Quebec company after sniper rifles turn up in Russia | Globalnews.ca

The briefing took place after Global News reported in October that social media posts showed Cadex rifles for sale in Moscow and in the hands of Russian snipers.

globalnews.ca

Canadian intelligence officers visit Quebec company after sniper rifles turn up in Russia​

"...... October that social media posts showed Cadex rifles for sale in Moscow and in the hands of Russian snipers."

"While some of the Canadian-made guns appeared to have been captured from Ukrainian forces, others looked brand new and still had their product tags." - Hopefully not the case of the new ones being sold off by bad actors in Ukraine to the Russians.....

I understand your looking for some sort of sensational gotcha moment. But even CISIS said they did everything correct.

Based south of Montreal, Cadex supplies military and law enforcement agencies worldwide. Dextraze said the company did not export its products to Russia.

Dextraze confirmed in a phone call with Global News that CSIS had met with his company several times to discuss the matter.

The intelligence officers “verified that we have done everything in the perfect way,”

If I was a betting man, and thank the lord I'm not. I would say these are battlefield pick ups, stock pile captures or 3rd and 4th party acquisitions.

Is Fazakerley responsible for the rifle I own that's changed hands XX times before I bought it ?

 

[Czech_pivo]

I understand your looking for some sort of sensational gotcha moment. But even CISIS said they did everything correct.



If I was a betting man, and thank the lord I'm not. I would say these are battlefield pick ups, stock pile captures or 3rd and 4th party acquisitions.

Is Fazakerley responsible for the rifle I own that's changed hands XX times before I bought it ?

No, not looking for any sort of 'gotta ya' moment. That is why I speculated that maybe the issue resided on the other side of the ocean (Ukraine) and not here on our side. From my memory, I believe that we shipped directly to Ukraine a number of sniper rifles in the past. There have been a number of cases before this latest war started and since, where weapons and such have hit the black market and ended up in Russian hands.

The article said that the company had not shipped a product to Russia in over 10+yrs and no replacement parts in over 6yrs.

 

[KevinB]

No, not looking for any sort of 'gotta ya' moment. That is why I speculated that maybe the issue resided on the other side of the ocean (Ukraine) and not here on our side. From my memory, I believe that we shipped directly to Ukraine a number of sniper rifles in the past. There have been a number of cases before this latest war started and since, where weapons and such have hit the black market and ended up in Russian hands.

The article said that the company had not shipped a product to Russia in over 10+yrs and no replacement parts in over 6yrs.

Russia does a slew of third party transactions.
Anything sold into several of the “stans” tends to not be for them, but for Russia.

They have more than just a shadow fleet, they have tons of shell corporations worldwide to effect sanction evasion.

 

[HavokFour]

Russia attacked clearly marked UN vehicles in an aid convoy in Kherson, and proceeded to release the FPV footage of it to brag.

This is the same area of Kherson where residents are used as targets by Russian drone units for training, called human safari's.

Ukraine - Humanitarian convoy attack - 14 May 2026

DescriptionSTORY: OCHA / UKRAINE KHERSON CONVOY ATTACKTRT: 01:50SOURCE: OCHARESTRICTIONS: PLEASE CREDIT OCHA ON SCREEN

www.unocha.org

Russia accused of drone attack on marked UN aid convoy​

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Belarus is heating up, I suspect their leader is making some noise and concessions to keep Putin happy, but I suspect he won't trigger all out war.

 

[Good2Golf]

Belarus is heating up, I suspect their leader is making some noise and concessions to keep Putin happy, but I suspect he won't trigger all out war.

Poland…

 

[Czech_pivo]

Belarus is heating up, I suspect their leader is making some noise and concessions to keep Putin happy, but I suspect he won't trigger all out war.

A very quick way of Regime change if those idiots decided to do something.

 

[CBH99]

A Dominic Nicholls report from a Ukraine operations room.

Kill zone from Front Line Own Troops to 30 km into the enemy rear with $2000 fibreoptic drones modified locally everyday.

5 km front for a brigade with one factory supplying 2000 FPVs a monthfor the brigade. 200 or so for a battalion.

No vehicular movement within the kill zone.

Russians dropped off 20 km from their destination, advancing on foot with no kit, led on the route by drones hoping that their kit will be delivered by drones once they are in position.

And AI autonomy

....

already here.

Inside the Ukrainian war room turning the tide on Russia

We get exclusive access to the secret command HQ to witness new technology ruthlessly ‘deleting’ Putin’s army

www.telegraph.co.uk

I mentioned this in another thread, but I think it's worth mentioning again...

Will the people/countries of Earth formally allow AI to make executive decisions at the tactical level?? (Aka deciding which enemy targets to engage & how to engage them, then issuing the commands that make it happen)

Or will we insist on there always being a human in every kill chain to make that call?




Because sooner vs later I think the world is going to have to make a ruling on this.

(Lots of my own thoughts on this - I can see arguments for both sides. Curious to hear you guy's thoughts tho)

 

[GR66]

I mentioned this in another thread, but I think it's worth mentioning again...

Will the people/countries of Earth formally allow AI to make executive decisions at the tactical level?? (Aka deciding which enemy targets to engage & how to engage them, then issuing the commands that make it happen)

Or will we insist on there always being a human in every kill chain to make that call?




Because sooner vs later I think the world is going to have to make a ruling on this.

(Lots of my own thoughts on this - I can see arguments for both sides. Curious to hear you guy's thoughts tho)

Make whatever rules you want but nations under existential threat will do what they need to do to survive.

There are some that are declaring that unmanned systems are the big revolution in warfare but I think it's actually AI.

Those FPV drones and loitering munitions in Ukraine are still single weapons being controlled by a single soldier, or they are preprogrammed to hit a specific location. Once all of these individual sensors/weapons are integrated into a single intelligence picture and AI directs them then in essence each of these weapons will become a JTAC with AI determining what they should attack or using the intelligence they provide to queue other weapons in the network to attack what they see.

This is when one side will be able to get inside the opponent's OODA loop and re-establish the ability to engage in maneuver warfare.

 

[Kirkhill]

I mentioned this in another thread, but I think it's worth mentioning again...

Will the people/countries of Earth formally allow AI to make executive decisions at the tactical level?? (Aka deciding which enemy targets to engage & how to engage them, then issuing the commands that make it happen)

Or will we insist on there always being a human in every kill chain to make that call?




Because sooner vs later I think the world is going to have to make a ruling on this.

(Lots of my own thoughts on this - I can see arguments for both sides. Curious to hear you guy's thoughts tho)

Strangely enough I asked Chatgpt that question.

I was reassured.

The Bot was not a fan of taking charge.
People wouldn't allow it.
And they are too unpredictable for any machine to manage them.

The Bot also preferred multiple "laboratories of democracy" to One World Government as a predicate for a stable society. One decision maker, human or machine, was too much of a risk. It would also result in too much friction.

It would have fit in nicely in 18th century Edinburgh.
....

We're in rough shape when even the machines don't want to manage us.