...raising the question of whether the burden of proof is on those claiming "climate change is an existential threat", or on those claiming "climate change is not an existential threat".
I could probably imagine a large number of climate change scenarios that would be existential threats. But they are all in the realm of "underpants gnome" 1-2-3.
The wheels have pretty much come off of the original two-plus-decades-ago climate alarmism. It was obvious from "go" that people simultaneously claiming that greenhouse effect was going to warm things and denying that greenhouse effect was not going to produce a more humid climate had to be wrong. Between the CO2 and humidity increases, we should always have expected a more vegetated world. And so people have started to observe.
But somehow climate alarmist zealots manage to keep grabbing the controls at all levels of government in Canada, wasting finite resources in pursuit of quests to undo a tiny fraction of the "damage" being effected in less prosperous countries.
Nothing beats a spare-no-expense cause for grifting opportunities.
‘Panic is a terrible policy advisor”…
Bjorn Lomborg: Al Gore’s inaccurate untruths distorted policy
Climate alarmism raised awareness but it skewed policy toward expansive emissions reductions rather than research into cheap clean energy
Two decades ago,
Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth” thrust
climate change into the global spotlight. Its dramatic imagery and dire warnings helped transform a niche concern into a front-page crisis, influencing rich-country leaders and elite jet-setters, and inspiring a generation of activists.
Twenty years on is sufficient distance to reflect, not just on the film’s impact, but also on its accuracy. Many of Gore’s most
alarming predictions have failed to materialize, while the policy response he helped inspire has proved extraordinarily flawed.
The film’s core narrative was that climate change is driving ever-worsening disasters, such as floods, droughts, storms and wildfires. Yet, over the past century, even as global population quadrupled, deaths from these climate-related disasters have plummeted. In the 1920s, an average of nearly half a million people died from such events
every year. Today, that number is under 10,000 — a
decline of over 97 per cent. Richer, smarter societies have made us dramatically safer, proving adaptation and resilience work far better than alarmism suggests.
Gore’s film claimed we would see more frequent and stronger hurricanes because of climate change. The movie’s poster showed a hurricane coming out of a smokestack. But in fact global data
reveal a slight
decline both in hurricanes’ frequency and in their total energy since comprehensive satellite data became available in 1980.
Wildfires follow a similar pattern. Globally, the area burned annually has
fallen by more than 25 per cent over the past quarter century, according to NASA data. Because of forest mismanagement, recent years have seen large U.S. fires. But the 1930s Dust Bowl was
five times worse. On all other continents
fires are down.
The film famously highlighted polar bears as a symbol of impending ecological collapse, suggesting they were drowning due to melting ice. In reality, polar bear populations have more than
doubled — from around 12,000 in the 1960s to over 26,000 today. The primary historical threat was hunting, not climate change, and Gore’s claims have simply turned out to be wrong.
The film’s call to action spurred expensive
emissions reductions. Yet fossil fuel consumption keeps increasing. Why? Because cheap and reliable power drives growth. As a result,
global emissions have set records nearly every year since 2006.
The data show we are nowhere near a
green transition. In 2006, according to the International Energy Agency, the world
got 82.6 per cent of its total energy from fossil fuels. In 2023, the last year for which global data are available, the share was 81.1 per cent. On this trend, it will take over six centuries to get to zero. Yet Gore’s message was that climate solutions were already at hand — if only rich nations would summon the political will to implement them swiftly and decisively.
Solar and wind technologies have become dramatically cheaper. But they remain fundamentally intermittent, generating power only when the sun shines or the wind blows. Because modern societies require reliable, 24/7 electricity, using these
renewables requires substantial backup systems — typically fossil-fuel plants. People think batteries can play a large role but, with a few rare exceptions
battery backup is measured in minutes, not hours. The result is that we end up paying twice: once for renewables and then again for reliable backup. An Inconvenient Truth ignored these inconvenient engineering and economic realities.
The global cost of climate policies since 2006 has
exceeded US$16 trillion. In the United States alone, the Inflation Reduction Act poured hundreds of billions into green tech. Yet because the rich world’s efforts ignore the reality that developing nations require cheap and reliable energy to reduce poverty, emissions continue to climb.
Rich nations account for only
13 per cent of the emissions forecast to take place in the rest of the 21st century. Emerging giants like China, India and Africa drive the rest. Even if all rich countries achieved net-zero by mid-century, that would avoid less than 0.1°C of warming by 2100, using the UN climate panel’s own model.
Al Gore’s apocalyptic climate predictions have aged poorly. Climate change is a real problem, but the best
evidence suggests warming might shave two to three per cent off global GDP by 2100. Here context matters: the UN estimates that by century’s end, the average person will be 4.5 times richer than today. Climate impacts reduce that to “only”
4.35 times richer. People will still be vastly better off — just slightly less so.
The movie’s biggest failing was not making the case for smarter approaches. We need to prioritize innovation. R&D to achieve better batteries, advanced nuclear and fusion could slash costs, making clean energy cheaper than fossil fuels. Adaptation, including sea walls, drought-resistant crops and early warnings, saves lives cheaply. And development lifts billions out of poverty, building resilience.
Two decades on, the main lesson of An Inconvenient Truth is that panic is a
terrible policy adviser. Focusing on cost-effective solutions — innovation, adaptation and development — will save trillions of dollars and do much more to help both people and the climate.
Bjorn Lomborg, president of the Copenhagen Consensus and a visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, is author of “False Alarm” and “Best Things First.”
Bjorn Lomborg: Al Gore’s inaccurate untruths distorted policy