Author Topic: General Election: Oct 21, 2019  (Read 74115 times)

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Offline Spencer100

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #400 on: October 09, 2019, 17:12:19 »
I don't the get the Doug hate.  He's done so very little.

When will the conservatives ever learn. They hate hate you so you might as well be conservative when you are in power.

Cutting the rate of growth of the budget is not cutting the budget.

Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #401 on: October 09, 2019, 17:38:55 »
The Doug factor,

Quote
Justin Trudeau has seized onto the Ontario premier’s tanking popularity and tried to anchor it to federal Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, invoking Ford’s name at every turn as a harbinger of Conservative doom and gloom.

I think you mean the desperate Liberal factor.

Their leader is so messed up that because of his OWN behavior he can't even fire a candidate for calling women c**nts, suggesting FN women are meth heads, making fun of Chinese people, joking about drinking and driving and making homophobic comments.

Trudeau's got his deflectors set to maximum. The Liberals don't even have party status in Ontario lol
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Offline mariomike

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #402 on: October 09, 2019, 17:44:07 »
I think you mean the desperate Liberal factor.

That was the quote in the Global News October 9, 2019 headline,

Quote
Doug Ford factor looms large in election as Liberals seize on premier’s tanking popularity
https://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,131141.msg1585953/topicseen.html#new

Recent polling has his approval ratings in the 20s and 30s, and Abacus Data found in July that 65 per cent of Ontarians had a negative impression of Ford, up from 48 per cent last October.



« Last Edit: October 09, 2019, 17:47:03 by mariomike »

Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #403 on: October 09, 2019, 17:51:45 »
Seen that, sorry.  I should have said they for more clarity.
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Offline mariomike

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #404 on: October 09, 2019, 17:58:02 »
I just know what I read in the papers.  :)

Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #405 on: October 10, 2019, 12:29:09 »

Looking at the poll tracker three days after the debate we see a bit of movement.  Might be unrelated.

But the Liberals slow rise in numbers stalled yesterday and they went down as of today.

The CPC was falling at a slow rate but we see an almost 1 point drop today.  Coincidentally the NDP went up by the same amount.

I think it is probably too late for the NDP to make up any ground but we might be seeing some undecided voters move their votes to the NDP based on Singh's rising popularity or even some younger voters moving to that band wagon. 

I wonder what portion of the vote the Bloc is gaining from.  Possibly some rural Quebec voters that would have gone Blue and some NDP/Liberal bits here and there.

Getting down to the wire but some voters might be making up their minds this weekend with advance polling.
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #406 on: October 10, 2019, 15:50:38 »
Whatever happens, we know that younger voters probably won't:


Why young people don’t vote

Turnout at elections is far lower for young people than any other cohort. Why?

It is not only in America that the young do not exercise their democratic rights. In 2010 just 44% of people aged 18 to 24 voted in Britain’s general election, compared with 65% of people of all ages. In not a single European country do the young turn out more than older people. Historically, youth turnout has never been particularly high anywhere, but over the past few decades things have got worse. One explanation favoured by older people is that the young are simply lazy. But this does not make much sense. Today’s young people volunteer more than old people; they are much better educated; and they are less likely to drink excessively or use drugs than previous generations of youth. That does not seem like a recipe for political apathy.

A better explanation may be that young people today do not feel they have much of a stake in society. Having children and owning property gives you a direct interest in how schools and hospitals are run, and whether parks and libraries are maintained. But if they settle down at all, young people are waiting ever longer to do it.

Yet perhaps the most depressing explanation is simply that in many places, young people do not feel that there is anyone worth voting for.

Young people—who tend to be more cosmopolitan, liberal and hopeful than their elders—tend to be switched off by the negativity and cynicism of election campaigns targeting the unhappy old. Sadly, cynicism then breeds cynicism.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2014/10/29/why-young-people-dont-vote
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #407 on: October 10, 2019, 18:52:26 »
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Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #408 on: October 10, 2019, 19:47:41 »
Laying the ground work?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-singh-priorities-minority-1.5315981

Singh is also a freedom hater aka wants to ban firearms for votes.
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #409 on: October 10, 2019, 20:27:14 »
Singh is also a freedom hater aka wants to ban firearms for votes.

A coalition or agreement could keep a Liberal minority in power for some time.  The NDP will want their demands met and I assume the land will agree in order to stay in power.
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Offline MilEME09

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #410 on: October 10, 2019, 22:43:33 »
A coalition or agreement could keep a Liberal minority in power for some time.  The NDP will want their demands met and I assume the land will agree in order to stay in power.

Well electroal reform would benefit the NDP, and smaller parties, so if he sticks to that demand, things could get interesting
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Offline ModlrMike

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #411 on: October 10, 2019, 23:20:36 »
So if it is the will of the people to elect a Conservative government, he won't support it. Not really "in it for you" then.
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #412 on: October 11, 2019, 06:38:11 »
So if it is the will of the people to elect a Conservative government, he won't support it. Not really "in it for you" then.

He’s said as much.  Would have to see if he follows through.
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Offline ModlrMike

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #413 on: October 11, 2019, 06:51:09 »
Here's the thing though, he might have painted himself into a corner. He's assuming that he will hold the balance of power. Nothing prevents the Liberals and Conservatives from supporting each other. They're more likely to find common ground now, thanks to the NDP list of demands.
WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may create the illusion that you are tougher,smarter, faster and better looking than most people.
Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats. (H.L. Mencken 1919)
Zero tolerance is the politics of the lazy. All it requires is that you do nothing and ban everything.

Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #414 on: October 11, 2019, 07:33:52 »
Here's the thing though, he might have painted himself into a corner. He's assuming that he will hold the balance of power. Nothing prevents the Liberals and Conservatives from supporting each other. They're more likely to find common ground now, thanks to the NDP list of demands.

True but if we go with the current seat projections the NDP would be fourth but still have enough to prop up a LPC minority.  They would likely have more influence as the fourth party than any of the others. 

CPC and LPC platforms are almost identical minus a few issues so finding common ground would be easy if it wasn't for personalities.  There is no way any CPC party leader would survive the backlash from their base if they ever teamed up with TEAM red.

I've mentioned this, but a liberal minority propped up by the NDP.  Scheer steps down, someone better steps up. The LPC will likely have another scandal (they can't help themselves) enough of which that the NDP will pull their support.  It's a question of when. 
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Offline ModlrMike

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #415 on: October 11, 2019, 07:43:15 »
I would agree for the most part, except for the longevity of the leaders. Trudeau likely needs a majority to avoid a leadership review, Scheer does not. As I previously stated, I don't think anyone in the CPC expected Scheer to last past one election cycle.

Of course the other thing is that the CPC doesn't actually need to take Quebec to win, where the LPC does.
WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may create the illusion that you are tougher,smarter, faster and better looking than most people.
Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats. (H.L. Mencken 1919)
Zero tolerance is the politics of the lazy. All it requires is that you do nothing and ban everything.

Online Journeyman

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #416 on: October 11, 2019, 08:42:20 »
.....young people do not feel that there is anyone worth voting for.
Age isn't a factor.   :(

Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #417 on: October 11, 2019, 09:01:52 »
I would agree for the most part, except for the longevity of the leaders. Trudeau likely needs a majority to avoid a leadership review, Scheer does not. As I previously stated, I don't think anyone in the CPC expected Scheer to last past one election cycle.

Of course the other thing is that the CPC doesn't actually need to take Quebec to win, where the LPC does.

One scenario might be to have Trudeau step down while they still have power.  The CPC will have a leadership race and it might take 6-12 months to sort that out. 

The CPC can't afford to lose seats in Quebec. They need Ontario BC and Alberta.  they have Alberta but not enough right now in BC or Ontario.
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Online Good2Golf

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #418 on: October 11, 2019, 09:14:35 »
...The CPC will have a leadership race and it might take 6-12 months to sort that out...

I'll go out on a limb and say, "I don't think it would take that long." :nod:

Regards
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #419 on: October 11, 2019, 09:20:04 »
I'll go out on a limb and say, "I don't think it would take that long." :nod:

Regards
G2G

Well the last one was 2 and a half years after harper stepped down.  But the CPC toyed with the idea of doing it in May 2016 which was 7 months. 
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Online Good2Golf

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #420 on: October 11, 2019, 09:34:01 »
Well the last one was 2 and a half years after harper stepped down.  But the CPC toyed with the idea of doing it in May 2016 which was 7 months.

It will likely be a minority (LPC I think), but depending on the narrowness of the margin, I think that a CPC reset ASAP will result in greater pressure on the new Government.  :2c:

Regards
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #421 on: October 11, 2019, 09:35:28 »
So a quick side bar on polls.

I've been looking at Eric Grenier's poll tracker and mostly ignore individual polls.

Nanos seems to have the Liberals too far ahead but I would point to this:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/election/how-the-nanos-polls-stacked-up-against-the-final-election-results-1.2618950?cid=ps:localnewscampaign:searchad:ds:Ottawacrawl

I'll be curious to see how close they come this time.



 
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #422 on: October 11, 2019, 09:36:52 »
It will likely be a minority (LPC I think), but depending on the narrowness of the margin, I think that a CPC reset ASAP will result in greater pressure on the new Government.  :2c:

Regards
G2G

Agreed.  I'm just not 100% sure they can get organised that quick.  I hope they do and it is what they will need to do.
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #423 on: October 11, 2019, 09:56:18 »
Latest polltracker shows the LPC have lost their seat advantage as the Bloc keeps rising.

 https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

This is one tight race to the bottom.
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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #424 on: October 11, 2019, 12:58:33 »
Whether the NDP might want to support a minority LPC government may be beside the point.  The magic number is 170.  Looking at Grenier's poll tracker on CBC just now, the projection for the two combined is only 164.  Add GRN and it's 168.

If the combined weight of NDP + GRN is insufficient and the government is a minority, then either the LPC or CPC allows the other to govern... or the governing party cuts deals with the Bloc, which I predict would be the kiss-of-death for the next election.
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