Author Topic: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy  (Read 799844 times)

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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2325 on: August 15, 2018, 18:59:08 »
Not to wade into a discussion between Underway & Czech that I simply observed, but I have to side with Czech here...I think you misunderstood what was being said there Underway, if you read up a few posts.

I think it was pretty clear that neither Seaspan or Irving can take on any MORE work than they already have booked - and that Davie will most likely need to be included in any future contracts, as the current allotment of work has both Irving & Seaspan busy for the next 10yrs or so.

So if the CCG needs icebreakers or conversions, if the Kingstons need replacing, etc etc - Davie should be included since they are a national shipyard (one of the best in North America, mind you) - and the legal issues that prevented them from initially being included are now behind them.

And, concurrently, we should work hard to get orders from other countries, and align trades training accordingly,  so our ship building 'prowess' never declines again through want of orders....
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Offline Underway

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2326 on: August 15, 2018, 20:32:26 »
Not to wade into a discussion between Underway & Czech that I simply observed, but I have to side with Czech here...I think you misunderstood what was being said there Underway, if you read up a few posts.

I think it was pretty clear that neither Seaspan or Irving can take on any MORE work than they already have booked - and that Davie will most likely need to be included in any future contracts, as the current allotment of work has both Irving & Seaspan busy for the next 10yrs or so.

So if the CCG needs icebreakers or conversions, if the Kingstons need replacing, etc etc - Davie should be included since they are a national shipyard (one of the best in North America, mind you) - and the legal issues that prevented them from initially being included are now behind them.

I only took issue with the hyperbole not the thoughts behind it.  Completely agree that there needs to be a more speedy delivery.  The Halifax Class were designed for 25 years.  We are there now and dealing with massive corrosion issues across the fleet (mostly on the East Coast, mainly due to different deck coverings oddly enough). 

Having Davie fill gaps in the Coast Guard is an excellent idea.  The fleets are so run down there is plenty of work for everyone right now.  As for Kingston replacements those boats are doing rather well.  FMF and the contractors are doing a good job to keep them going.  I haven't heard a single person in the RCN talk about Kingston replacement as a concern (yet), though I have heard talk about sub replacement since Strong Secure Engaged came out (even floating the Australia will be looking for partners discussion).

Offline MilEME09

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2327 on: August 15, 2018, 20:36:22 »
Partner with the aussies on subs? Might be easier to sell as a commonwealth ally
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Offline Czech_pivo

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2328 on: August 15, 2018, 21:17:50 »
And, concurrently, we should work hard to get orders from other countries, and align trades training accordingly,  so our ship building 'prowess' never declines again through want of orders....

Amen -
Would love to see if we can sell something to the Kiwis or the Chileans since both of them have trusted us to do refits on their naval vessels.
But again, unless Iring can increase capacity, I don’t see how they will have time to build anything extra.

Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2329 on: August 15, 2018, 21:48:13 »
Amen -
Would love to see if we can sell something to the Kiwis or the Chileans since both of them have trusted us to do refits on their naval vessels.
But again, unless Iring can increase capacity, I don’t see how they will have time to build anything extra.

In WW2 we did just fine increasing capacity real fast:

'Canada in 1940 had just started to build patrol vessels for the protection of its own coasts, but Britain soon placed orders for 26 ten-thousand-tonne cargo ships and soon after orders for naval escorts and minesweepers. This was just the beginning, as Britain made clear it needed Canada to build as many naval and merchant ships as it possibly could. The practically non-existent Canadian interwar shipbuilding industry - three shipyards employing fewer than 4,000 men - expanded to 90 plants on the East and West Coasts, the Great Lakes and even inland. More than 126,000 men and women were employed. In all, the shipyards built 4,047 naval vessels, most of them landing craft but including over 300 anti-submarine warships, among them 4 Tribal class destroyers, and 410 cargo ships. At its wartime peak in September 1943, the industry was able to deliver the ten-thousand-tonne SS Fort Romaine in a stunning 58 days from the start of construction.'
https://www.warmuseum.ca/cwm/exhibitions/newspapers/canadawar/shipping_e.shtml

The global supply chain is moving towards 'autonomous' cargo ships, as I understand it, and no doubt this will fast become a main feature of China's 'Belt and Road' initiative: https://phys.org/news/2017-09-unmanned-ships-cargo-industry-dearly.html

Here's our big chance to leverage a big domestic shipping program for longer term success.
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Offline MilEME09

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2330 on: August 15, 2018, 22:27:46 »
Ships in ww2 were also less sophisticated then a modern warship. A Lee Enfield No. 4 mk 1 would take less time to manufacture then say a timberwolf.

Amen -
Would love to see if we can sell something to the Kiwis or the Chileans since both of them have trusted us to do refits on their naval vessels.
But again, unless Iring can increase capacity, I don’t see how they will have time to build anything extra.

Not unless they wanna wait 25 years, are any of our shipbuilders even in a position to expand capacity like some of us have suggested? for example does Davie still have the Tracy and Vikers sites? Can any smaller facilities or sites be asked to help with construction for example the Port Weller Dry Dock facilities owned by Saint Lawrence Seaway or Theriault Shipyard?
« Last Edit: August 15, 2018, 23:07:23 by MilEME09 »
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Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2331 on: August 16, 2018, 06:34:45 »
Bruce MacKinnon, in the Halifax Chronicle Herald, draws this conclusion: http://www.thechronicleherald.ca/editorial-cartoon/2018-08-16-editorial-cartoon#
« Last Edit: August 16, 2018, 06:37:31 by E.R. Campbell »
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Offline Czech_pivo

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2332 on: August 16, 2018, 08:36:56 »
Here are some back of the envelope facts, gathered off of Irving's own website re the AOPS

1) 3 Sept, 2015 first steel cut on the first AOPS
     1.1) 10 June, 2016 first 2 of the 4 main engines installed (9 months duration)
            1.2) Dec, 2017 final mega block assembled (27 months duration)
                   1.3) Sept ??, 2018 first AOPS is launched (36 months duration)
Start to launch - 3yrs duration

2) 26 Aug, 2016 first steel cut on the second AOPS
      2.1) April, 2018 first 2 of the 4 main engines installed (timeline under the 1st AOPS was 9 months - here its 20 months)
             2.2) Final mega block assembled ?? - using the timeline established under the 1st AOPS, 27 months, this should occur in Nov of 2018.....
                    2.3) ?? second AOPS is launched - using the timeline established under the 1st AOPS, this should occur in Aug of 2019
Start to launch - ??

3) Dec 2017, first steel cut on the third AOPS
      3.1) ?? first 2 of the 4 main engines installed - again, using the timeline under the first AOPS, this should occur in Sept 2018 OR if using the timeline under the 2nd AOPS, July, 2019....)
             3.2) Final mega block assembled ?? - using the timeline established under the 1st AOPS, this should occur March 2020
                     3.3) ?? third AOPS is launched - again using the timeline under the 1st AOPS, this should occur in Dec 2020.
Start to launch - ??

Yes - I fully agree/accept that this is a crude methodology to be using, but its all that is readily available.  Using the information that is on Irving's own website one can conclude that timeline established on the 1st AOPS has already slipped on the 2nd AOPS and its too early to tell if its slipping on the 3rd AOPS but I'm willing to bet that it is.

So, are the timelines slipping because Irving is having a hard time getting up to speed (surely the final mega block being wider than the rest of the ship by what, 40mm can't be helping), or are they slowing down the delivery times in order to 'close' any 'gap' between when they finish that last (will it be 5 or 6 AOPS?) ship and start the first CSC in the mid 2020's? 





« Last Edit: August 16, 2018, 09:47:45 by Czech_pivo »

Offline FSTO

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2333 on: August 16, 2018, 09:07:18 »
Bruce MacKinnon, in the Halifax Chronicle Herald, draws this conclusion: http://www.thechronicleherald.ca/editorial-cartoon/2018-08-16-editorial-cartoon#

Maybe if Irving and the province of Nova Scotia would quit griping about non-existent threats to their piece of the shipbuilding pie and get to bloody work they already have.
Remember the wailing and gnashing of teeth when Seaspan acquired the submarine refit contract? Newsflash Irving and NS, you folks on the east coast do not have the divine right to every government shipbuilding contract. You actually have to produce a quality product!!!! 

Offline dapaterson

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2334 on: August 16, 2018, 10:00:59 »
Newsflash Irving and NS, you folks on the east coast do not have the divine right to every government shipbuilding contract. You actually have to produce a quality product!!!!

You're new here, aren't you?
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Offline Lumber

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2335 on: August 16, 2018, 10:12:13 »
You're new here, aren't you?

People who think the Laurentian elites are bad should come to the east coast and bare witness to how strongly a few rich and influential people can dominate huge sectors of industry.
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Offline FSTO

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2336 on: August 16, 2018, 12:06:48 »
You're new here, aren't you?

I have my moments. ;D

Offline Colin P

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2337 on: August 16, 2018, 12:58:47 »
Ships in ww2 were also less sophisticated then a modern warship. A Lee Enfield No. 4 mk 1 would take less time to manufacture then say a timberwolf.

Not unless they wanna wait 25 years, are any of our shipbuilders even in a position to expand capacity like some of us have suggested? for example does Davie still have the Tracy and Vikers sites? Can any smaller facilities or sites be asked to help with construction for example the Port Weller Dry Dock facilities owned by Saint Lawrence Seaway or Theriault Shipyard?

The rifle comparison is not a great one, as that modern techniques make it easier than before. In some ways, modern ship building techniques make it easier as well. The 3D virtual design helps solve a lot of issues beforehand for example. What bugs me is that with all the computing power, we still build unstable designs.

Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2338 on: August 16, 2018, 15:15:25 »
You're new here, aren't you?


I remember ~ during the TRUMP era ~ when Irving was our "fair haired boy" and Davie was the devil incarnate. Davie drove it self/was driven into (near?) bankruptcy partially, I think, be being too "entitled" while Irving was (thirtyish+ years ago) showing real entrepreneurship ... now, perhaps, the tables are turned.

But the politics of "regional development" in Canada are totally destructive ... when governments pick winners everyone ends up losing.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
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Offline Humphrey Bogart

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2339 on: August 16, 2018, 15:27:04 »
People who think the Laurentian elites are bad should come to the east coast and bare witness to how strongly a few rich and influential people can dominate huge sectors of industry.

Oland, McCain, Irving, Sobey, Eddy, etc.  Pick your poison!

Offline Underway

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2340 on: August 16, 2018, 16:19:18 »
People who think the Laurentian elites are bad should come to the east coast and bare witness to how strongly a few rich and influential people can dominate huge sectors of industry.

There isn't that much industry to dominate unfortunately.  Which might be part of the problem. Frankly looking around Halifax it seems like the main employer is government directly (military, coast guard, health care) or indirectly (Dalhousie University, Irving Shipbuilding).  So who's really dominant?

Offline Humphrey Bogart

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2341 on: August 16, 2018, 16:22:47 »
There isn't that much industry to dominate unfortunately.  Which might be part of the problem. Frankly looking around Halifax it seems like the main employer is government directly (military, coast guard, health care) or indirectly (Dalhousie University, Irving Shipbuilding).  So who's really dominant?

Up in Northern NB, all the big multinational mills closed up shop for one reason:  they got tired of dealing with militant unions.

Smurfit-Stone closed in Bathurst in 2005 (Bathurst had been making paper for almost 100 years) after just completing millions of dollars in upgrades to the mill.  Why?  Company got wind the Union planned strike action.  Bye Bye Mill.

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2342 on: August 16, 2018, 17:49:55 »
"The New Richmond and Bathurst mills have an annual production capacity of 235,000 tons of linerboard and 243,000 of corrugating medium respectively. Both mills have been recently idled due to market conditions.

Smurfit-Stone also plans to permanently shut a paper machine at Fernandina Beach, Fla. The machine has been idle since April 2001.

Smurfit-Stone said demand is slowing for packaging in North America, as manufacturing is being shifted overseas. "We are in a mature industry that has struggled to achieve adequate returns," Moore said.

"We have been unable to pass along inflationary costs, such as energy and fiber, to our customers. In addition, the manufacturing exodus overseas has had a strong impact on containerboard demand throughout North America.

Last month, Abitibi-Consolidated announced plans to close several paper machines in Newfoundland and Ontario as it tries to cope with tough conditions in the paper sector.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/bathurst-mill-closes-hundreds-lose-jobs-1.547783

Offline Navy_Pete

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2343 on: August 16, 2018, 17:54:36 »
There is such a thing as a contract you know.  For better or for worse we entered a legitimate agreement with Irving and Seaspan.  Yes both companies have profited from the agreement but both companies have installed massive infrastructure that would never have been there otherwise.  Just because a third company wants a piece of the action is no reason to go back on our agreements: only non-delivery or bad quality control would entitle us to do that.  From what I gather much of the delay in Seaspan has been a result of faulty plans that had to be revised: plans that Seaspan had no part in initiating.  Irving seems to be on track now that they have gotten their act together so what is the beef?  there are lots of ships still to be procured that will come on line outside of the national policy agreements or that neither Seaspan nor Irving will be able to deliver when required (after all, there are only so many man years and so much construction space at the yards): let Davies bid on them and they can compete with the other two at that time.

There is no place for common sense or logic on the internet!  :tsktsk: :tsktsk:

Two minor points to add though; both VSY and ISI invested 9 figures in upgrading the shipyards and took about two years after contract award, so nothing really started being built until 2015.  It was understood that there is a huge learning curve at the start.  Davie would need a similar level of investment to get their shipyard up to a similar level to build shipyards efficiently, so they aren't some kind of panacea.

Also, cut steel date means nothing really, as that's a ceremonial thing that you can do without even having a design.  The drumbeat is picking up, so driving down the flash to bang timeline, but we knew back in 2009 that would take 3-4 ships minimum before any new shipyard got to a reasonable level of efficiency at the front end, and we're still in the bit of a learning curve where the improvements are in the 30%+ range, so everyone needs to calm down and carry a towel, and look at the long term picture where we're in a 30 year program.

Offline Humphrey Bogart

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2344 on: August 16, 2018, 18:03:59 »
"The New Richmond and Bathurst mills have an annual production capacity of 235,000 tons of linerboard and 243,000 of corrugating medium respectively. Both mills have been recently idled due to market conditions.

Smurfit-Stone also plans to permanently shut a paper machine at Fernandina Beach, Fla. The machine has been idle since April 2001.

Smurfit-Stone said demand is slowing for packaging in North America, as manufacturing is being shifted overseas. "We are in a mature industry that has struggled to achieve adequate returns," Moore said.

"We have been unable to pass along inflationary costs, such as energy and fiber, to our customers. In addition, the manufacturing exodus overseas has had a strong impact on containerboard demand throughout North America.

Last month, Abitibi-Consolidated announced plans to close several paper machines in Newfoundland and Ontario as it tries to cope with tough conditions in the paper sector.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/bathurst-mill-closes-hundreds-lose-jobs-1.547783

Oh I remember vividly.  Did the article also mention that Smurfit "sabotaged" their own equipment so nobody could put the mill back in to operation? 

There are stated reasons and real reasons for things.  Miramichi NB had three mills at the time and two of them were also on strike for 18 months.  Only one remains now and it's the non-unionized one. 

Smurfit also left the site to become an environmental catastrophe:

Welcome to Sarajevo, NB folks:



De-industrialization has killed much of Atlantic Canada.

Don't worry though, they still cut lots of wood in NB, they just ship it all to Quebec.  In fact, the NB Government increased how much wood companies were allowed to harvest annually to unsustainable levels. 
« Last Edit: August 16, 2018, 18:10:18 by Humphrey Bogart »

Offline Uzlu

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2345 on: August 16, 2018, 20:34:43 »
Two minor points to add though; both VSY and ISI invested 9 figures in upgrading the shipyards and took about two years after contract award, so nothing really started being built until 2015.  It was understood that there is a huge learning curve at the start.  Davie would need a similar level of investment to get their shipyard up to a similar level to build shipyards efficiently, so they aren't some kind of panacea.
Quote
Boisvert said the investment will give the firm the money it needs to update its facilities, as well as a cash flow to fund future projects.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-investment-davie-shipyard-1.4737096

Offline Baz

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2346 on: August 16, 2018, 20:45:26 »
Two minor points to add though; both VSY and ISI invested 9 figures in upgrading the shipyards...

To be fair, my undrstanding is ISI didn't invest anything.  The Nova Scotia government did in forgivable loans.  In effect, if all goes well ISI makes a profit.  If it doesn't, the Nova Scotia taxpayers take the loss.  So there was very little risk assumed by ISI.

I understand that's how these things are done, especially in Nova Scotia, but it does highlight that none of this is simple.

Offline Underway

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2347 on: August 16, 2018, 21:54:18 »
To be fair, my undrstanding is ISI didn't invest anything.  The Nova Scotia government did in forgivable loans.  In effect, if all goes well ISI makes a profit.  If it doesn't, the Nova Scotia taxpayers take the loss.  So there was very little risk assumed by ISI.

I understand that's how these things are done, especially in Nova Scotia, but it does highlight that none of this is simple.

I think Navy_Pete was referring to investment in infrastructure amounts for the shipyards vice who actually pays the bill.  ISI has invested over $300 million in its shipyard despite the fact that the NS gov't gave them a loan.

Offline MilEME09

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2348 on: August 17, 2018, 21:31:32 »
https://www.cbc.ca/1.4788322?cmp=FB_Post_News

Looks like quality issues already from Seaspan
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Offline CBH99

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Re: New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
« Reply #2349 on: August 18, 2018, 01:17:22 »
To be fair, it does happen... seems like overall, it was a small number of welds compared to the total number of welds done on the ship.  Perhaps an inexperienced person with not enough training or supervision.

To be fair, even the US Navy has welding issues pop up "seemingly" frequently, and they always have tons of ships under construction...in their case it's an even smaller percentage due to the sheer number of ships they build annually, but it happens.  (Recently there were some defective welds on missile launch tubes intended for new submarines.)

I wouldn't instantly flame the yard...just make sure they are aware of the problem, fix it, and make the necessary changes so it's fixed in the future also.
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