CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[PrairieFella]

And this applies equally to city governments - especially Winnipeg - whose city council now wants to float a garbage collection "fee" on top of property taxes and frontage fees, which are taxes.
There is no movement to curb government spending at ANY level.

They literally have no choice. Sam Katz essentially bankrupted the city with a decade of tax freezes. Our shit plant should have been built a decade ago but tax cuts meant it got deferred now to the point it's going to cost over a billion. Winnipeg is not a good example of tax deferral. If want to stop poisoning Lake Winnipeg and ensure we can actually keep growing the population, we gotta do what we gotta do.

 

[OldSolduer]

The guy needs to run federally at some point.

My wife hates him with a passion.

I don't - but his government isn't what it appears to be. I do think he'd be a viable candidate to replace the current Federal NDP leader - he will have to rebuild that party and I think he could.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Tim Houston would make a fine federal leader, and I would reckon more electable than Dougie Ford.

 

[Brad Sallows]

What is the appropriate duration/start/stop/frequency to base the trend line on?

We've enjoyed good enough relations with the US going back into the early part of the last century. We didn't always have a FTA. We didn't always have NATO.

The point is to pay attention when people speak. Are they saying "the US" and "Americans", or are they putting the blame squarely on the source? Don't fight unnecessary battles. Don't turn a mix of hostiles, indifferents, and favourables into hostiles.

 

[QV]

Back to "conservatism" for a moment. One of my great fears with respect to Carney is that he is too conservative. I fear that he wishes to conserve the old green order that he and his cohort have been foisting on us for the last few decades.

I am looking for an agent of change.

I am looking for someone to take advantage of this moment in time and change our national direction here in Canada.

And one element I am looking for is a greater degree of national self-reliance. Not individualism, though I am an individual and hope to be treated as one, but a greater sense of national purpose. And a sense that you can't rely on anybody, especially your neighbours.

So basically a Trump without the orange-man-bad.

 

[Good2Golf]

We've enjoyed good enough relations with the US going back into the early part of the last century. We didn't always have a FTA. We didn't always have NATO.

The point is to pay attention when people speak. Are they saying "the US" and "Americans", or are they putting the blame squarely on the source? Don't fight unnecessary battles. Don't turn a mix of hostiles, indifferents, and favourables into hostiles.

Points have validity, but respond to the question as what temporal frame should we be considering the relationship of trust? So back to Truman/Roosevelt times, and see Trump as a small blip of less than ~10%, so say…let’s be 90% confident that things will stabilize after Trump (be that 2028 or…2032? ). Will Putin/Russia’s influence end with Trump? The circle of previous trust will be fully re-established? So a metaphoric pillow-biting is the best COA?

 

[HavokFour]

Looks like someone's eyes are starting to water, a blink may be coming.

Trump mulls exemptions for carmakers from Mexico and Canada tariffs

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says Donald Trump is considering a deal that would offer exemptions from tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

www.bbc.com

Both Ontario and Feds are staying firm however.

‘There is no halfway’: Premier Ford says Ontario’s measures will remain in place until U.S. lifts tariffs

Premier Doug Ford says Ontario will “hold our line” on tariffs and sanctions, including removing alcohol from LCBO shelves, until the United States lifts all tariffs on Canada. The comments come as the U.S. commerce secretary hints at potential tariff carve-outs to be announced Wednesday.

www.ctvnews.ca

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-05/canada-won-t-scrap-tariffs-unless-all-us-levies-are-lifted-official-says

 

[Remius]

Tim Houston would make a fine federal leader, and I would reckon more electable than Dougie Ford.

Name recognition is his problem. Doug Ford is a bit more known.

 

[Underway]

A common theme of conservatives regardless of sub-faction used to be trade liberalization.

Liquor sales isn't really a core or even a fringe government responsibility. Obviously tariffs and contract abrogation aren't examples of liberalization.

I reiterate that the best principle to follow when presented by protectionism is to respond by retaining and increasing liberal policies. I notice that despite talking about it a lot, there still hasn't been a lot of movement on internal liberalization. Our "Team Canada" leaders are trying very hard not to have to shed their own protectionist policies. On mega-projects, governments should be clearing regulatory burdens, not choosing winners and losers.

I'm expecting a backdown by Trump at some point not too far in the future ("declare victory and go home") when a face-saving excuse presents. It should be obvious that the mess created in the auto industry alone is going to produce intense pressures for an exception, and once there is one exception everyone else will be clamouring for one. I suppose with the 10% (lower) tariff on energy imports there is already one exception.

I agree that's what conservatism used to be. From Eisenhower to Regan/Mulroney up to about 2016.

MAGA has upended that cart and made it look like something else. It's isolationism over global trade and the US doesn't want to pay for the global trade protection anymore. That's the actual subsidization, it doesn't come from trade flows it comes from guaranteeing safe trade.

I also have concerns about Team Canada, I think (hope) that now the tariffs were made real yesterday were going to see the snowball start rolling. Alberta and BC are working on natural gas flows. NS went the furthest on taking down all their objections (19 of them) to the interprovincial free trade agreement for any other provience that does the same.

I think some of the stall is the Ontario election and federal prorogue. ON Parliment resumes in two weeks so we'll see some movement then I hope.

 

[Swampbuggy]

Any meaningful discussion of economics needs to correct for the deflationary impact of Costco hotdogs on consumer price statistics.

I’m torn between hitting the insightful or humorous button for this post…

 

[Underway]

Points have validity, but respond to the question as what temporal frame should we be considering the relationship of trust? So back to Truman/Roosevelt times, and see Trump as a small blip of less than ~10%, so say…let’s be 90% confident that things will stabilize after Trump (be that 2028 or…2032? ). Will Putin/Russia’s influence end with Trump? The circle of previous trust will be fully re-established? So a metaphoric pillow-biting is the best COA?

I think it's the end of a mostly bipartisan US foreign policy. It will more be on the whim of the current government. US foreign policy was essentially the same between Democrat's and Republicans for the last 70 years. The main themes/goals remained the how's and why's changed.

Now though... I think they look very different.

 

[Remius]

What is Trumpism? Immigration enforcement? Common public order? A conservative skepticism of interventionism as compared to the adventurism and irrational expectations of neocons that all you have to do is overthrow dictators and democracy will flourish? Fiscal prudence? Constitutional adherence, particularly to freedoms of expression? A profound intolerance of waste, fraud, and abuse? Putting the interests of Americans first instead of treating US DIME like some sort of bank from which other countries get to make withdrawals?

Oh it’s definitely complicated.

Trumpism - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

It will likely outlast him. It would be naive to think that this is just a 4year phenomenon and that everything will be fine after.

 

[Underway]

Looks like someone's eyes are starting to water, a blink may be coming.

Trump mulls exemptions for carmakers from Mexico and Canada tariffs

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says Donald Trump is considering a deal that would offer exemptions from tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

www.bbc.com

Both Ontario and Feds are staying firm however.

‘There is no halfway’: Premier Ford says Ontario’s measures will remain in place until U.S. lifts tariffs

Premier Doug Ford says Ontario will “hold our line” on tariffs and sanctions, including removing alcohol from LCBO shelves, until the United States lifts all tariffs on Canada. The comments come as the U.S. commerce secretary hints at potential tariff carve-outs to be announced Wednesday.

www.ctvnews.ca

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-05/canada-won-t-scrap-tariffs-unless-all-us-levies-are-lifted-official-says

It's all part of the plan to over time pull more manufacturing to the US. You don't need tariffs just the threat of them to create uncertainty. And business flow to where there is no uncertainty. So why put in tariffs when the threat of them do the same thing.

Trump called GM Ford and Stellantis today and the scuttlebutt is that they promised to move more manufacturing to the US. They just want carve outs for their cars.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Any country under pressure is liable to break agreements, interfere, or ignore selected rules. The pressure doesn't have to be trade-related.

I cannot emphasize enough that the US is probably not more untrustworthy than it historically has been; all of this stems from Trump. It's prudent to assume that relations will normalize after Trump is gone (probably a lot sooner once Americans start feeling the self-imposed damage) and act accordingly with long-term interests in view. Follow the trend line, not the outlier.

I concur - the test will be in 4yrs on who the US elections in that election - and - in the 4yrs after that. That's the timeline needed to begin to see if this was a minor anomaly or the continuing of a rift.
But if Trump continues down this path with us and the rest of the world, if a 'sane, rational' President comes next and they hope to pivot back to the 'old ways' with us and the rest of the world, they better have the nicest, most excellent, best in the world pair of kneepads because they are going to need them and need them often.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Name recognition is his problem. Doug Ford is a bit more known.

That could also work against Ford.

 

[JLB50]

We've enjoyed good enough relations with the US going back into the early part of the last century. We didn't always have a FTA. We didn't always have NATO.

The point is to pay attention when people speak. Are they saying "the US" and "Americans", or are they putting the blame squarely on the source? Don't fight unnecessary battles. Don't turn a mix of hostiles, indifferents, and favourables into hostiles.

I would totally agree with you if Trump or someone like him had gotten into power under false pretences and managed to do what he has done by surprise. Unfortunately Trump was voted into power after pretty much saying in advance exactly what he has managed to do so far…create chaos, inflict tariffs on many countries, bring Russia back into the fold, gut the government bureaucracy, end DEI, go after judges who he said were against him, etc. Although during the election he lied countless times and inflated facts and figures sometimes fantastically to support his claims, he was at least honest to his supporters about what he intended to do. The resulting election results reflected the confidence that the majority of Americans had in him.

I was born in the U.S., came to Canada many decades ago and still have some relatives living there, relatives who are very much Trump lovers if not outright fanatics. With tens of millions of people on both sides of the political divide there, the once great country to the south of us is being torn apart before our very eyes. As many others have previously said what’s happening now is basically the Civil War 2.0. I largely agree with them but am not 100% sure. Regardless, I cannot trust the American public to make decisions that are in the best interest of Canada, the world or even the United States itself.

 

[PrairieFella]

I would totally agree with you if Trump or someone like him had gotten into power under false pretences and managed to do what he has done by surprise. Unfortunately Trump was voted into power after pretty much saying in advance exactly what he has managed to do so far…create chaos, inflict tariffs on many countries, bring Russia back into the fold, gut the government bureaucracy, end DEI, go after judges who he said were against him, etc. Although during the election he lied countless times and inflated facts and figures sometimes fantastically to support his claims, he was at least honest to his supporters about what he intended to do. The resulting election results reflected the confidence that the majority of Americans had in him.

I was born in the U.S., came to Canada many decades ago and still have some relatives living there, relatives who are very much Trump lovers if not outright fanatics. With tens of millions of people on both sides of the political divide there, the once great country to the south of us is being torn apart before our very eyes. As many others have previously said what’s happening now is basically the Civil War 2.0. I largely agree with them but am not 100% sure. Regardless, I cannot trust the American public to make decisions that are in the best interest of Canada, the world or even the United States itself.

That cult-like aspect will ultimately culminate in the balkanization of the USA. At this point, I think it's inevitable. There's just too much hatred between the two halves of the political divide.

 

[Czech_pivo]

It's all part of the plan to over time pull more manufacturing to the US. You don't need tariffs just the threat of them to create uncertainty. And business flow to where there is no uncertainty. So why put in tariffs when the threat of them do the same thing.

Trump called GM Ford and Stellantis today and the scuttlebutt is that they promised to move more manufacturing to the US. They just want carve outs for their cars.

The hit will come mostly on Mexico.

GM has no manufacturing left in Canada
Ford's Oakville plant is retooling until 2026 and that could be in jeopardy
Ford's Essex engine plant might be on the line
Stellantis is really no longer an 'American' company in the slightest - its French. Their facility in Brampton is on the chopping block before this madness began, leaving their Windsor facility their only other CDN plant. This plant should be fine as its closely tied in with the massive NextStar EV plant.

 

[JLB50]

That cult-like aspect will ultimately culminate in the balkanization of the USA. At this point, I think it's inevitable. There's just too much hatred between the two halves of the political divide.

The political divide isn’t so much along geographical lines. It’s going to pit neighbour against neighbour or, some cases, state against state.

 

[QV]

That cult-like aspect will ultimately culminate in the balkanization of the USA. At this point, I think it's inevitable. There's just too much hatred between the two halves of the political divide.

I think if he secures the southern border and reduces government waste, he will find support on both sides of the political spectrum in the voting population.

No country can carry on with an open border and mass unvetted migration and spending that will ultimately bankrupt the country. Every other POTUS talked about those issues but never did anything of substance.

I'd guess 75% of voters are on board with those things. The remaining 25% wouldn't agree water is wet.