Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[Jarnhamar]

Yeah, smaller pool paying for ever increasing services and whatnot.

Or in this scenario, the bill for food comes due and everyone needs to pay more because that one person left.

But we as Canadians decided that the LPC was bringing in way too many immigrants and throwing a bunch of other sectors out of whack so now we are actively shrinking. That comes with its own set of consequences but thats what we all collectively wanted, no?

Not so fast.

The problem with your analogy here is that you're assuming the only variable is the number of people in the room. If the room was already overcrowded and the rent, food, and utilities were rising faster than incomes, adding more people doesn't automatically make everyone better off.

Also we didn't collectively decide to shrink the country. Many people wanted immigration levels reduced because housing, healthcare, and infrastructure weren't keeping pace with population growth. Slower growth may have economic costs, but so did the previous approach.

And we're still growing even with reduced immigration.

Certain diaspora of people coming in are bringing a lot of crime, death, and carnage.

 

[YZT580]

Not so fast.

The problem with your analogy here is that you're assuming the only variable is the number of people in the room. If the room was already overcrowded and the rent, food, and utilities were rising faster than incomes, adding more people doesn't automatically make everyone better off.

Also we didn't collectively decide to shrink the country. Many people wanted immigration levels reduced because housing, healthcare, and infrastructure weren't keeping pace with population growth. Slower growth may have economic costs, but so did the previous approach.

And we're still growing even with reduced immigration.

Certain diaspora of people coming in are bringing a lot of crime, death, and carnage.

No one ever adds in the social costs do they? Courts, legal services, prison costs, social services, policing not to mention the costs of adding in a security system and the associated stress: it all adds up

 

[Altair]

Not so fast.

Slowing down.

The problem with your analogy here is that you're assuming the only variable is the number of people in the room. If the room was already overcrowded and the rent, food, and utilities were rising faster than incomes, adding more people doesn't automatically make everyone better off.

It's simplified. And i agree, those issues were issues.

Also we didn't collectively decide to shrink the country. Many people wanted immigration levels reduced because housing, healthcare, and infrastructure weren't keeping pace with population growth. Slower growth may have economic costs, but so did the previous approach.

And i agreed with it. But i cannot sit here in good faith and begrudge slower economic growth and a technical recession because of it.

And we're still growing even with reduced immigration.

We are not growing. We are actively shrinking.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-population-decline-first-time-9.7133643

Unless youre talking about the economy, in which case overall we are growing, but even if the economy contracts a bit, it's par for the course for a shrinking population.

Certain diaspora of people coming in are bringing a lot of crime, death, and carnage.

Sure.

 

[Altair]

No one ever adds in the social costs do they? Courts, legal services, prison costs, social services, policing not to mention the costs of adding in a security system and the associated stress: it all adds up

Agreed. But we cannot have it both ways.

We cannot support a shrinking population while at the same time complaining about slower economic growth.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Certain diaspora of people coming in are bringing a lot of crime, death, and carnage.

Like at APS or after BMQ grad at Pet, Shilo Valcartier etc.....

 

[Czech_pivo]

Agreed. But we cannot have it both ways.

We cannot support a shrinking population while at the same time complaining about slower economic growth.

Well, productivity comes to mind.....so does automation....

 

[Jarnhamar]

We are not growing. We are actively shrinking.

We could use some shrinkage.

Unless youre talking about the economy, in which case overall we are growing, but even if the economy contracts a bit, it's par for the course for a shrinking population.

Economy is still growing, albeit slowly.

Sure

Mark Carney is healing us, it just takes time. Trudeaus faithful went to ground and are dug in deep, it's going to take some precision to remove them.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Agreed. But we cannot have it both ways.

We cannot support a shrinking population while at the same time complaining about slower economic growth.

The real constraint is composition and productivity, not just headcounts.

 

[Altair]

The real constraint is composition and productivity, not just headcounts.

Slow moving metrics compared to headcounts.

 

[Altair]

We could use some shrinkage.

We certainly can.

Economy is still growing, albeit slowly.

On a whole, yes.

Mark Carney is healing us, it just takes time. Trudeaus faithful went to ground and are dug in deep, it's going to take some precision to remove them.

Eh. Everything works in cycles. Trudeau was needed for when he was needed, until he wasn't. Then the country needed a Progressive conservative and the LPC gave us that in Carney and here we are. I'm sure there will come a time when we need a NDP lite PM again.

 

[Altair]

Well, productivity comes to mind.....so does automation....

Certainly. But these are much slower moving things in the background compared to going from one of the fastest growing nations on earth to actively shrinking over the course of a year and a half.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Eh. Everything works in cycles. Trudeau was needed for when he was needed, until he wasn't. Then the country needed a Progressive conservative and the LPC gave us that in Carney and here we are. I'm sure there will come a time when we need a NDP lite PM again.

89% of the reason Trudeau got elected was because of picture of a dead boy on a beach.

If Canada needed Trudeau results were lack luster. Trudeau did pause Harpers Bill C-30 Lawful Access / Internet surveillance bill. Ironically he cheerfully violated Canadians rights, and now paved the way for some other concerning Bills.

 

[ArmyRick]

Just a weird observation about polls, and this is me talking about polls (I will bring up Ontario polling, even though this is Federal political thread)

Doug Ford was slipping down in the polls and the Ontario Liberals (with no leader) were increasing (and with rumours of Nate Erskine-Smith it seemed they were going up), however since Navdeep Bains (Former federal Liberal MP) has announced his intention to run as Ontario Liberal leader, they are dropping in the polls again (The guy is so crooked), and Dougie is raising again.

These polls can change very quickly as Nik Nanos has stated. And watch for long term sliding up-down trends. Trudeau didn't drop in the polls all at once.

 

[YZT580]

Well, productivity comes to mind.....so does automation....

I guess I am a little thick but I thought that as a country we were growing just fine 10 years ago when there were about 10 million fewer of us. I fail to see where adding half a million more residents all queuing up for the same positions is going to add anything to the GDP. I always thought that GDP was influenced by jobs and business output. Altair, your statement suggests that GDP is based upon the more people that work where my thoughts would base it upon the more that people work.

 

[Altair]

89% of the reason Trudeau got elected was because of picture of a dead boy on a beach.

If Canada needed Trudeau results were lack luster. Trudeau did pause Harpers Bill C-30 Lawful Access / Internet surveillance bill. Ironically he cheerfully violated Canadians rights, and now paved the way for some other concerning Bills.

Trudeau got elected on a youth movement.

CCB, legal weed, electoral reform, this pushed young people to the LPC in droves. The alternatives were decriminalization of weed, tax credits for kids, and no electoral reform.

Now electoral reform never happened, but ask any parent if they would want tbeir CCB taken away and you would have a riot. Ask people if they want weed illegal again, same riot.

People poo poo Trudeau all the time but his legacy will live on in some form or another.

 

[Altair]

I guess I am a little thick but I thought that as a country we were growing just fine 10 years ago when there were about 10 million fewer of us. I fail to see where adding half a million more residents all queuing up for the same positions is going to add anything to the GDP. I always thought that GDP was influenced by jobs and business output. Altair, your statement suggests that GDP is based upon the more people that work where my thoughts would base it upon the more that people work.

Both are true.

More productivity means more GDP.

More people also means more GDP.

But productivity gains is not a quick process. Opening the doors to immigration is very quick. Trudeau, urged on by big business who love low income wage slaves, opened the spigot way too much, which boosted GDP but threw multiple other sectors out of balance.

Trudeau did make the changes in late 2024 to address it, which we are seeing now, but less people does mean downward pressure on GDP simply due to there being less people around to boost demand and work certain jobs which boosts production of good and services.

Meanwhile a productivity gain might bear fruit in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years. And even then, it's weighted against other nations. Sure, a canadian company might be 25 percent more productive, but if Europe is also 25 percent more productive, it's a wash. If the USA is 27 percent more productive, youre actually falling behind.

So yeah, it's both, but the quick and easy way to boost gdp is just open the door to immigrants. That has its own downsides when not properly managed as trudeau and the rest of us found out.

 

[daftandbarmy]

At least we're still ahead of Mexico and Luxembourg

Why Canada’s GDP per capita crisis is real: DeepDive​

From 2014 to 2024, Canada’s real GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity grew by just 3.2 percent in total, an anemic 0.4 percent per year on average, and the third lowest among 38 advanced nations. Over the same period, the United States posted 20.2 percent total growth (1.9 percent annually), and the OECD average reached 15.3 percent (1.4 percent annually). The measurement shortcomings cannot explain five-to six-fold differences in growth rates.

Why Canada’s GDP per capita crisis is real: DeepDive

Canada's economic performance is slipping fast. We've fallen to 38th place in GDP per capita while our productivity crisis deepens. Here's what the data reveals.

thehub.ca

 

[Altair]

At least we're still ahead of Mexico and Luxembourg

Why Canada’s GDP per capita crisis is real: DeepDive​

From 2014 to 2024, Canada’s real GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity grew by just 3.2 percent in total, an anemic 0.4 percent per year on average, and the third lowest among 38 advanced nations. Over the same period, the United States posted 20.2 percent total growth (1.9 percent annually), and the OECD average reached 15.3 percent (1.4 percent annually). The measurement shortcomings cannot explain five-to six-fold differences in growth rates.

View attachment 100620

Why Canada’s GDP per capita crisis is real: DeepDive

Canada's economic performance is slipping fast. We've fallen to 38th place in GDP per capita while our productivity crisis deepens. Here's what the data reveals.

thehub.ca

The dumbest statistic continues to be the dumbest statistic no matter how many times you post it.

OECD reports…

https://twitter.com/x/status/2052443986967601227

 

[daftandbarmy]

More proof, if needed, that we're in the hurt locker and heading in the wrong direction ...

​

Canada labour productivity falls as construction, agriculture lag behind​

Canada’s labour productivity declined for a second consecutive quarter as hours worked increased while output declined.

Business sector productivity fell by 0.5% over the first three months of the year, Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday. That follows a 0.3% decline in the fourth quarter, which was steeper than the 0.1% decrease previously reported by the federal agency.

Falling productivity has weighed on Canada’s growth. Real gross domestic product has contracted for two straight quarters, though many economists say the decline is not steep or broad enough yet to meet the definition of a recession.

Canada’s top-skilled workers are leaving for the U.S. in droves for lower taxes and higher pay: TD study​

A new report from TD Economics warns that Canada is losing its highest-skilled workers, entrepreneurs, and STEM graduates to the United States through a slow, largely invisible syphoning—calling the phenomenon a “silent brain drain.” The crisis, it argues, is less about who Canada can attract than who it fails to keep.

Much of the outflow never registers in Statistics Canada’s emigration data because it occurs through U.S. employer-sponsored work visas—temporary and semi-permanent pathways that conventional brain drain metrics simply don’t capture. Of the partial data Statistics Canada was able to retrieve, the agency determined that, in 2023, 18,590 Canadian residents emigrated to the U.S. permanently, with 30 percent of those people not being born in Canada.

Despite net migration to the U.S. lowering in recent years, the trend of top talent—which helps drive GDP growth—leaving Canada has not.

“Canada is not hollowing out; it is spilling out at the top,” the TD report states. “Absent progress on this front, Canada will continue to be a feeder system for the U.S. innovation economy.”

Canada’s top-skilled workers are leaving for the U.S. in droves for lower taxes and higher pay: TD study

 

[brihard]

I guess I am a little thick but I thought that as a country we were growing just fine 10 years ago when there were about 10 million fewer of us. I fail to see where adding half a million more residents all queuing up for the same positions is going to add anything to the GDP. I always thought that GDP was influenced by jobs and business output. Altair, your statement suggests that GDP is based upon the more people that work where my thoughts would base it upon the more that people work.

More people mean more economic activity. All will consume, meaning all are spending directly or indirectly on consumer goods, housing, services etc. Most will be employed in some capacity and so will have wages paid out for whatever their labour is. GDP is basically just a measure of total end user economic activity (I’m over simplifying of course). More people means more economic activity, and so more GDP.