Author Topic: The Future of Turkey In NATO  (Read 3442 times)

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Offline tomahawk6

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The Future of Turkey In NATO
« on: July 24, 2018, 03:09:34 »
I know that Russia would love to see Turkey drop out,maybe that's why the SS400 deal went through. It is a big move for their air defense capability.But we have to reign in Erdogen somehow.I think they would love to join the EU.Maybe that's a carrot that can be offered.

Offline CBH99

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2018, 04:52:25 »
Erdogen just needs to go.  Period.

Turkey used to be the pleasant boundary between the West & the East.  Now?  Dangerous, corrupt, authoritarian, and unloyal.

They want the S400 to protect their airspace, yet wouldn't settle down & get Patriot when it was offered.  They want the F-35, yet want a Russian AD system that could be used to generate intel for successful firing solutions on F-35s in the future. 


It's a tricky situation, with no clear answers.  They currently have hundreds of teachers, doctors, lawyers, judges, civil servants, soldiers, etc - locked up in prison, in less than stellar conditions, based on nothing more than Ergoden's "perceived" threat from them.  He used a false flag coup attempt to consolidate his power, and incarcerate any potential opposition.

Until lawyers, doctors, judges, teachers, civil servants, etc etc aren't incarcerated & Egroden doesn't have the power to detain anybody he wishes, it'll be a hard sell to allow them entrance into the EU.  Especially when it's still in a state of 'military disagreement' with Greece, an EU country.  And when other countries that aren't members of the EU, or are more recent members of the EU, had to work extremely hard to eventually 'clean up their act' to be permitted in.

But on the other hand, we don't want them drifting more & more to the Russians...which seems to be the case.

I don't have the answer on this one, doesn't seem like an easy fix either way.  (Or, just promise them membership to the EU on the conditions that they a) scrap the S-400 in favour of Patriot or similar, and b) respect rules of law, and cease the detainment of members of the judicial system who could potentially disagree with the President)       :dunno:
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2018, 10:05:13 »
Secretary Mattis is trying to save the F-35 sale. Maybe Putin will sell them some fighters we shouldn't.

https://www.rt.com/news/430222-senate-bans-f35-turkey/

Offline Journeyman

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2018, 10:34:48 »
Being a "dangerous, corrupt, authoritarian, and unloyal" ally within NATO is obviously not grounds for even questioning membership, let alone suggesting removal.  As long as Turkey dominates the eastern Mediterranean and Aegean Seas, as well as sitting astride the sole sea route into the Black Sea, its position within NATO is secure.... unless Turkey chooses otherwise. 


Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2018, 10:38:35 »
Wasn't Turkey buying oil from ISIS and supporting them in other ways?
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Offline winnipegoo7

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2018, 10:58:31 »
Turkey has always been a troublesome NATO member.

They’ve never gotten along with Greece.

And they battled the Canadian Airborne Regiment during their invasion of Cyprus in 1974. (2 Cdns killed and 30 wounded*).

http://www.commando.org/airborne-history/cyprus/

*modified to add that I don’t know that these casualties were directly caused by the Turkish mil.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2018, 11:07:40 by winnipegoo7 »

Offline Journeyman

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2018, 11:26:26 »
Wasn't Turkey buying oil from ISIS and supporting them in other ways?
Yes.  I'm not justifying it, but the Turks obviously saw it in their national interest to keep receiving oil, with a bonus of having ISIS deal with their 'Kurdish problem' for them.

Turkey has always been a troublesome NATO member.
They’ve never gotten along with Greece.
And Greece has always been a stellar NATO member, much like France....and the US, currently.      /sarcasm

*modified to add that I don’t know that these casualties were directly caused by the Turkish mil.
They were, predominantly by mortar fire at Nicosia airport.

Offline winnipegoo7

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2018, 12:07:45 »
Good points JM

Online garb811

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2018, 12:49:14 »
...

I don't have the answer on this one, doesn't seem like an easy fix either way.  (Or, just promise them membership to the EU on the conditions that they a) scrap the S-400 in favour of Patriot or similar, and b) respect rules of law, and cease the detainment of members of the judicial system who could potentially disagree with the President)       :dunno:
I think 10-15 years ago the EU carrot might have worked but I doubt Erdogan is all that interested in having a "higher power" acting as a check and balance on what he is doing.

Offline Cdn Blackshirt

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2018, 15:04:27 »
Yes.  I'm not justifying it, but the Turks obviously saw it in their national interest to keep receiving oil, with a bonus of having ISIS deal with their 'Kurdish problem' for them.
And Greece has always been a stellar NATO member, much like France....and the US, currently.      /sarcasm
They were, predominantly by mortar fire at Nicosia airport.

Except it wasn't just the Kurds that ISIS were killing.  It was Kurds, Yezidi, Shia and anyone deemed "not Sunni-enough".....and it's apparent that fits just fine with Erdogan's worldview.  He had tonnes of leverage to modify ISIS behaviour and so it is rational to assume they acted exactly like he wanted them to. 

He also has even more leverage regarding what's going on in both Afrin and Idlib right now.  He has troops plus his proxies on the ground and in both cases both regions are being ethnically cleansed (abductions, murders, sex slavery, rapes, etc.) at a tremendous rate. 

Bottom Line is that saying  he has a "national interest" in reducing the Kurds power is akin to saying Hitler had a national interest in reducing the Jews power.  He is a bloodthirsty, genocidal maniac and morally Canada should have nothing to do with him. 
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Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2018, 16:16:17 »
Maybe we should make an example out of Turkey.  :clubinhand:
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Offline Once_a_TQ

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2018, 16:32:09 »
Bottom Line is that saying  he has a "national interest" in reducing the Kurds power is akin to saying Hitler had a national interest in reducing the Jews power.  He is a bloodthirsty, genocidal maniac and morally Canada should have nothing to do with him.

And you must be one of the the Canadians that live there and know first hand eh.

You do know there are currently 20+ CAF members with families posted within Turkey at various locations. Both NATO and non NATO positions.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2018, 16:37:49 by Once_a_TQ »

Offline winnipegoo7

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2018, 16:37:49 »
You do know there are currently 20+ CAF members with families posted within Turkey at various locations. Bot NATO and non NATO.

I don’t follow you. What’s your point?

Offline Once_a_TQ

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2018, 16:39:52 »
I don’t follow you. What’s your point?

Unless the poster is currently living there then their "opinion" is moot.
I'll take first hand knowledge from those living there, I know a few, to an opinion formed from international news sources, ect ect.

Offline winnipegoo7

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2018, 17:21:05 »
Unless the poster is currently living there then their "opinion" is moot.
I'll take first hand knowledge from those living there, I know a few, to an opinion formed from international news sources, ect ect.

Interesting logic - not that I agree with it.

Since you have these special first hand sources in Turkey could you please share their expert opinions regarding this subject? I would be very interested to know their opinions and this way I can avoid having to read all those ignorant (and probably fake) news reports.

Thanks,

Online Retired AF Guy

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2018, 17:26:23 »
And Greece has always been a stellar NATO member, much like France....and the US, currently.      /sarcasm

Greece - Military dictatorship under the Colonels.
Turkey - The military on several occasions intervened and overthrew the civilian governments,
including Erdogan during his first time in power.
Portugal - dictatorship under Salazar.
Spain -  dictatorship under Franco.

So, not the first time NATO has had a member who weren't exactly paragons of virtue.
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Offline Blackadder1916

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2018, 19:10:48 »
. . . .
Spain -  dictatorship under Franco.

So, not the first time NATO has had a member who weren't exactly paragons of virtue.

While the other examples you gave may be less than ideal members, in Spain's case a couple of dates to keep in mind.

Franco's date of death - 20 November 1975
Date Spain became a NATO member - 31 May 1982

Spain went through a lot of political turmoil after Franco's death as it transitioned from a dictatorship to democracy, but by the time it joined NATO in 1982 it had weathered much of the storm and was settled in establishing itself as a democracy.
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Online Retired AF Guy

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #17 on: July 24, 2018, 19:32:58 »
While the other examples you gave may be less than ideal members, in Spain's case a couple of dates to keep in mind.

Franco's date of death - 20 November 1975
Date Spain became a NATO member - 31 May 1982

Spain went through a lot of political turmoil after Franco's death as it transitioned from a dictatorship to democracy, but by the time it joined NATO in 1982 it had weathered much of the storm and was settled in establishing itself as a democracy.

Thank you for pointing that out. I had assumed Spain had been a NATO member prior to Franco's death.
"Leave one wolf alive, and the sheep are never safe."

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Offline PuckChaser

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #18 on: July 24, 2018, 19:51:43 »
If the US Congress is looking to withhold F-35s, this is an opportunity for Canada. Pledge to take over Turkey's order of 100 aircraft, and their production of parts, in exchange for removing any tariffs (which we reciprocate). Huge boost to Canadian aerospace, PR "win" for defense spending, and the US President can back off tariffs without losing face.

Offline Altair

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #19 on: July 24, 2018, 21:32:29 »
If the US Congress is looking to withhold F-35s, this is an opportunity for Canada. Pledge to take over Turkey's order of 100 aircraft, and their production of parts, in exchange for removing any tariffs (which we reciprocate). Huge boost to Canadian aerospace, PR "win" for defense spending, and the US President can back off tariffs without losing face.
minus the whole "don't buy American" thing going on,  that would be a great idea.
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Offline GR66

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #20 on: July 24, 2018, 21:36:47 »
minus the whole "don't buy American" thing going on,  that would be a great idea.

Ahhh...we shouldn't buy American because they put tariffs on us, so we should ignore a possible solution that will remove those tariffs because it will mean we have to buy American which we're not willing to do because they put tariffs on us?

Gotcha!

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #21 on: July 24, 2018, 21:47:43 »
Petty politics should always take priority over us getting the gear we need in the CAF. I mean, just look at the EH101, what a great deal.

Offline Altair

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #22 on: July 25, 2018, 01:47:23 »
Petty politics should always take priority over us getting the gear we need in the CAF. I mean, just look at the EH101, what a great deal.
should it?  No. In an ideal world it wouldn't.  But it would be naive to say that petty politics won't come into play.

Of course,  in an ideal world,  we wouldn't need a military,  so you win some and you lose some.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2018, 12:35:26 by Altair »
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Offline Cdn Blackshirt

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #23 on: July 25, 2018, 10:35:45 »
And you must be one of the the Canadians that live there and know first hand eh.

You do know there are currently 20+ CAF members with families posted within Turkey at various locations. Both NATO and non NATO positions.

What a stupid retort....

I don't give a flying ____ if you live there. 

If you want to stand behind what Erdogan has done (silencing and jailing journalists & political enemies, flattening Kurdish cities within Turkish borders, committing genocide in Afrin and Idlib and the supporting of ISIS), how about you step up and justify his actions.

Make sure you include a thoughtful commentary on his famous quote which he borrowed from Hitler's behaviour which was "Democracy is like a train.  Once you reach your destination, you get off."

Eh? 


M. 
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Offline Journeyman

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Re: The Future of Turkey In NATO
« Reply #24 on: July 26, 2018, 09:57:50 »
Maybe the folks at the Institute for the Study of War  were following this thread  ;) ;  they posted this yesterday...
(actually, they have an on-going "Turkey Project")
Quote
Navigating the U.S.-Turkey Relationship Beyond the Quagmire
Jul 25, 2018 - Elizabeth Teoman

Key Takeaway:  The U.S. needs Turkey as an active partner despite its slide into authoritarianism under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The U.S. should adopt an interest-based approach towards Turkey that shapes its behavior in line with shared strategic objectives such as reversing the gains of Iran and Russia in the Middle East.

- The U.S. needs Turkey to contribute actively as an ally in NATO.
- Turkey is nonetheless the largest vulnerability to NATO’s cohesion.
- The U.S. should commit to a smarter interest-based approach that compels greater cooperation from Turkey.
The U.S. must refocus on areas of shared interest: Counter-Terrorism;  Regional Stability;  Iran;  Russia; and Responsible Governance in Turkey.
Complete essay at LINK.