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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #100 on: February 26, 2014, 08:38:43 »
If the government thinks the presence of a Canadian official delegation could sway Putin away from taking action later or sooner, they are hopelessly optimistic.
It's merely the diplomatic equivalent of an NDHQ Staff Annoyance Assistance Visit.  They'll show up without knowing the actual situation on the ground, have not the slightest intention of getting their hands dirty but not hesitating to tell everyone how they'd be doing things better, take pictures and go souvenir shopping at the local market for bragging rights back home, then disappear having contributed nothing.


Baird et al are simply adding to the storyline that "while the Liberals shamelessly ~tsk tsk~ make hockey jokes at the expense of these poor people, we're here doing.......something!"  [ie - Ukrainian voters in Western Canada take note]

Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #101 on: February 26, 2014, 10:03:18 »
Putin has ordered military drills across western Russia.Odd time for a readiness drill,but then again maybe not. :nod:

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #102 on: February 26, 2014, 11:47:22 »
It's to keep all those troops in Sochi from getting bored now that the Olympics are over :) .

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #103 on: February 26, 2014, 12:27:56 »
Putin preparing to move troops to annex Eastern Ukraine and Crimea?

Yahoo News

Quote


Putin orders massive military exercises amid tensions over Ukraine

The Canadian Press
By The Associated Press

MOSCOW - President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered massive exercises involving most military units in western Russia amid tensions in Ukraine.

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said in a televised statement made at a meeting of top military brass in Moscow that the exercise is intended to "checks the troops' readiness for action in crisis situations that threaten the nation's military security."

In remarks carried by Russian news agencies, Shoigu said that the manoeuvrs involve some 150,000 troops, 880 tanks, 90 aircraft and 80 navy ships.

He said the exercise is unrelated to the developments in Ukraine, where tensions remain high following the toppling of Russia-backed President Viktor Yanukovych.


But Shoigu added that the exercise will be held near Russian borders, including the border with Ukraine. He also said, according to Russian news reports, that his ministry will take steps to strengthen security of the facilities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, without elaborating.

(...)- EDITED

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #104 on: February 26, 2014, 14:01:06 »
880 ish tanks is a combined arms army of four motor rifle divisions and a tank division...


That's a huge force, especially in this post cold war era...
So, there I was....

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #105 on: February 26, 2014, 15:15:58 »
Putin has ordered military drills across western Russia.Odd time for a readiness drill,but then again maybe not. :nod:
Hey, the narrative has been set ....
Assuming, as I am, that this is the official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation then this statement is pretty bold:

http://mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/86DDB7AF9CD146C844257C8A003C57D2
Threats to minority Russian language rights?  Check.

Threats to Orthodox churches?  Check.

Reminder of some neo-Nazis getting in on the act (bringing back a bit of historical angst)?  Check.

Lookit what they're doing to our glorious history of "liberation" during WW2?  Check.
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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #106 on: February 26, 2014, 15:25:55 »
Quote
KYIV — A former presidential aide despised by protesters has been shot and wounded, his spokesman said Tuesday, raising fears of retaliation as Ukraine charts a new tumultuous political course.

Andriy Klyuyev, who was President Viktor Yanukovych’s chief of staff until Sunday, was wounded by gunfire on Monday and hospitalized, his spokesman, Artem Petrenko, told The Associated Press.

You can add this to the narrative from yesterday's National Post

By the way I detest the hyped headline.  Not useful at any time but especially not now.
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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #107 on: February 26, 2014, 16:03:35 »
By the way I detest the hyped headline.  Not useful at any time but especially not now.
Like they say, if it bleeds, it leads ....
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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #108 on: February 26, 2014, 16:12:19 »
880 ish tanks is a combined arms army of four motor rifle divisions and a tank division...


That's a huge force, especially in this post cold war era...

How many runners?

How many after running 100 km and the Vodka has been drained from the Hydraulics?  (Pace Viktor Suvorov - The Liberators).

How many after the RPGs get done with them?

How many can you concentrate at a given place in a useful number?
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Offline S.M.A.

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #109 on: February 26, 2014, 16:35:27 »


How many after the RPGs get done with them?



In the case of a Russian annexation/incursion...

Wouldn't the Russian armoured columns not face much resistance in Southeastern Ukraine/Crimea though? At least until affer the Dnepr River?

Wouldn't the ethnic Russians living in those areas welcome and assist their compatriots?

Furthermore, as said in this earlier article, the Ukrainian Army's officer corps overwhelmingly support deposed President Yanukovich (who supports Russia), while the enlisted personnel seem to mostly support western Ukraine/the EU.

So far most of the Ukrainian military has stayed out of the political crisis gripping the country, but that may change..
« Last Edit: February 26, 2014, 17:39:53 by S.M.A. »
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Offline MilEME09

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #110 on: February 26, 2014, 16:45:38 »
Most of the Ukrainian army is in the west as well, If i recall correctly only a handful of units would actually be close enough to slow down the Russian Army until the bulk including Ukraine's armoured units arrive.
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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #111 on: February 26, 2014, 17:05:14 »
I'd wager that most are runners.  And with reactive armour, RPG warheads would be virtually useless.

And backing all this up one can assume battalions of SP Artillery. 18 tubes per regiment.  That's 360 2S1s (122mm). Plus the 2S3s. And an unknown number of 9A52-2 Smerch-M...and on it goes.
So, there I was....

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #112 on: February 26, 2014, 18:43:11 »
                                                    Shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

Russian military move on Ukraine would echo HITLER annexing the Sudetenland, expert warns

Express Owen Bennett  25Feb

A DECISION to send Russian tanks into Ukraine would have echoes of the catastrophic invasion of Czechoslovakia by Adolf Hitler 76 years ago, according to a leading international security expert.

Dr Jonathan Eyal, International Director of the security think-tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said a such Russian move would be President Vladimir Putin’s “Sudetenland option”.

He was referring to the annexation of the German-speaking part of Czechoslovakia in 1938 when Hitler claimed he was merely trying to protect the ethnic German population in the area, a move that led eventually to the Second World War.
 
It is now feared President Putin could seek to take over the eastern part of Ukraine to protect the ethnic-Russians in the region, following the ousting of pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych last weekend.

Dr Eyal warned that state-owned Russian media outlets are already focusing on the suffering of ethnic-Russians in the region, just as Nazi Germany did with its propaganda in 1938.

The expert warned any military move by Russia could usher in a new Cold War with the West.

He said: "Putin understands Ukraine will never be part of Russia again, but he wants Ukraine to look on Russia as a big brother.

"The Sudetenland option is not his first priority, but it is his fail safe priority.

"He has no chance of engaging with the west of Ukraine, and at the end of the day the Sudetenland option remains in the back of most Russian leaders minds.

"The West's failure has been trying to persuade him that the Sudetenland option is a mistake for Russia, but he is not getting the message."

Dr Eyal added if the the annex did happen, it could set diplomatic relations between Russia and the West back to the days of the Cold War.

Since Mr Yanukovych was deposed last weekend, President Putin has been tight-lipped on events in Ukraine.

President Putin was a strong supporter of the former President, backing him for power twice - first in 2004 and again in 2010.

Civil unrest began to mount in Ukraine last November, when Mr Yanukovych abandoned an agreement with the European Union in favour of closer ties with Russia.

Within weeks, the protest expanded to include outrage about corruption and human rights abuses and calls for Mr Yanukovych's resignation.

Dr Eyal believes the silence emanating from Moscow is merely "the calm before the storm" and President Putin will not take being embarrassed so publicly lightly.

He said: "Putin's main strength at the moment is his ambiguity, as it keeps us all guessing.

"Ambiguity is the strongest card Moscow has - but he will encourage local Russian-speaking activists in the east of Ukraine to rise up."

Hitler's claims for the Sudetenland was one of the direct precursors to the Second World War.

The territory was officially annexed to Germany as part of the infamous Munich Agreement in September 1938 - the height of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's policy of appeasement.

The agreement was signed by Chamberlain, Hitler, Italian leader Benito Mussolini and French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier.

No Czechoslovakian representative was presents, and the Czechs were told to either accept the deal or face the Nazi's alone.

In exchange for the land, Hitler signed a peace deal between Germany and the UK, which Chamberlain famously described as guaranteeing "peace for our time" upon his return to London.

Other ways Russia could exert pressure on the new Ukrainian government include limiting the country's energy supply and demanding repayment of loans.

Dr Eyal believes the UK and Nato will only become involved in a military capacity to strengthen the Ukrainian border with Poland and Romania in order stop any disquiet spreading, and would not send any troops into Ukraine itself.

In a vist to Ukraine's Crimea region today, a senior Russian lawmaker vowed Moscow will protect its compatriots there if their lives are in danger. 
 
Leonid Slutsky, who heads a committee in charge of relations with other ex-Soviet republics in the Russian parliament, reflected tensions in the Crimea, a mostly Russian-speaking Black Sea peninsula that hosts a major Russian naval base. 

Mr Slutsky, speaking at a meeting with local activists, didn't spell out what action Russia might take. 

His statement followed comments by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said that Moscow has no intention of interfering in Ukraine's domestic affairs and warned the West against trying to turn the situation there to its advantage.

Dr Eyal believes the UK and Nato will only become involved in a military capacity to strengthen the Ukrainian border with Poland and Romania, in order stop any disquiet spreading.

photos at link.

Offline pbi

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #113 on: February 26, 2014, 19:16:32 »
I find the echoes from pre-breakup FRY pretty frightening. This isn't going anywhere good.
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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #114 on: February 26, 2014, 19:39:43 »
Ukraine, Crimea, Donbass, Chechenya, South Ossetia, Georgia, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan, Kurds, Syria, Iraq, Iran.

Greece and Turkey not looking particularly strong.

What does it say when the strongest regional countries are Romania and Bulgaria?


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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #115 on: February 26, 2014, 20:49:51 »
Ukraine, Crimea, Donbass, Chechenya, South Ossetia, Georgia, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan, Kurds, Syria, Iraq, Iran.

Greece and Turkey not looking particularly strong.

What does it say when the strongest regional countries are Romania and Bulgaria?

Surely you speak of stability when you use the term strength. Am I wrong?

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #116 on: February 26, 2014, 21:26:34 »
You're right Inky.

Stability is a better word.
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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #117 on: February 26, 2014, 21:51:32 »
More on the "you won't see Russian troops" front ....
Quote
Ukraine’s sovereignty over the southern region of Crimea appeared to be under threat Wednesday, as Russian-backed fighters moved dozens of kilometres outside their base in this Black Sea port, establishing a checkpoint on the main road connecting Sevastopol to the regional capital.

The Globe and Mail saw least a dozen men wearing fatigues – supported by an armoured personnel carrier – standing under a Russian flag at a checkpoint erected roughly halfway along the 80-kilometre road from Sevastopol to Simferopol, putting it close to the administrative border that separates the Sevastopol municipality from the rest of Crimea and Ukraine.

The men, some wearing balaclavas, used flashlights to look inside each vehicle approaching Sevastopol. They reportedly later told journalists they were local “volunteers.”

Earlier in the day, at least two armoured personnel carriers were seen maneuvering in the centre of this port city, which has historic ties to Russia and hosts Russia’s Black Sea Fleet under an agreement between Moscow and Kiev. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the Kremlin was “carefully watching what is happening in Crimea” and would take “measures to guarantee the safety of facilities, infrastructure and arsenals of the Black Sea Fleet.” ....
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #118 on: February 26, 2014, 22:31:42 »
The combat readiness of Russian armored units is thought to be iffy.Ukraine has the advantage of interior lines if it comes to that.But I actually think all of this talk of invasion sets the table for a deal to be worked out.The bottom line is that the Crimea will become part of Russia.

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #119 on: February 26, 2014, 23:36:07 »
Don't most of the warships of the Ukrainian Navy actually share port at Sevastopol with the Russian Black Sea Fleet?

Wouldn't it be awkward if Russia moved into Eastern Ukraine to try to link up with their forces in Crimea, leading to the Ukrainians and Russian warships in port to start trading shots?

Would it be a foregone conclusion that the Russian Black Sea Fleet comes out victorious mainly because of superior firepower?

*another uncertain factor is how many ships will remain loyal to the new regime in Kiev, or loyal to the deposed President Yanukovich, who is pro-Russia and reportedly hiding in an abandoned sub base in the Crimea.
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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #120 on: February 27, 2014, 00:08:46 »
Ready for another Wild Card?

Quote
In the regional capital of Simferopol, 10,000 Muslim Crimean Tatars rallied in support of Ukraine's interim leaders, waving Ukrainian flags and chanting "Ukraine is not Russia" and "Allahu Akbar," while a smaller pro-Russian rally nearby called for stronger ties with Russia and waved Russian flags.
Protesters shouted and punched each other in ongoing scuffles outside the regional assembly, as police and leaders from both sides struggled to keep the two groups apart.

Outstanding: Slavs of Muscovy facing a coalition of Varangians and Muslim Mongols.

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #121 on: February 27, 2014, 02:11:16 »
Speaking of the Tartars mentioned above:

Quote

Yahoo News

MOSCOW - A local leader of the Tatar community in Ukraine's Crimea region says armed men have seized two government buildings in the regional capital, Simferopol.

Refat Chubarov wrote on his Facebook page early Thursday that the buildings of the local government and legislature were seized overnight by uniformed men.

Phone calls to the Crimean legislature are ringing unanswered, and its website is down.

But the Interfax news agency reports that the legislature's press office has confirmed the building has been seized.

(Edited)



While Moscow tries to ensure the security of its Black Sea Fleet:


Defense News

Quote
Minister: Russian Navy Taking 'Security Measures' in Crimea


Feb. 26, 2014 - 04:27PM   |   
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE 
MOSCOW — Russia is taking measures to ensure the security of its Black Sea naval fleet based on Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, Russia’s defense minister said Wednesday as President Vladimir Putin ordered snap checks of the armed forces.

“We are watching carefully what is happening in the Crimea, what is happening around the Black Sea fleet. We are taking measures to ensure security of sites, infrastructure and arsenals of the Black Sea fleet,” minister Sergei Shoigu said, Russian news agencies reported.

(...)-EDITED
Our Country
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"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: We did it ourselves."   - Lao Zi (老子)
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"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #122 on: February 27, 2014, 03:11:33 »
Quote
UPDATE 3-Armed men seize government HQ in Ukraine's Crimea, raise Russian flag
27 Feb 2014 03:01 EST
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/27/ukraine-crisis-crimea-idUSL6N0LW0AY20140227

* Armed men seize regional government, parliament buildings
 
* Police outside, Russian flag flying

* Door barricaded with chairs, tables

* Russia says it will defend compatriots' right

By Alessandra Prentice

SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Armed men seized the regional government headquarters and parliament on Ukraine's Crimea peninsula on Thursday and raised the Russian flag in a challenge to the country's new rulers.

It was not immediately known who was occupying the buildings in the regional capital Simferopol and they issued no demands, but witnesses said they spoke Russian and appeared to be ethnic Russian separatists.

Interfax news agency quoted a witness as saying there were about 60 people inside and they had many weapons. It said no one had been hurt when the buildings were seized in the early hours by Russian speakers in uniforms without designating marks.

"We were building barricades in the night to protect parliament. Then this young Russian guy came up with a pistol ... we all lay down, some more ran up, there was some shooting and around 50 went in through the window," Leonid Khazanov, an ethnic Russian, told Reuters.

"They're still there ... Then the police came, they seemed scared. I asked them (the armed men) what they wanted and they said 'To make our own decisions, not to have Kiev telling us what to do'," said Khazanov.

Crimea, the only Ukrainian region with an ethnic Russian majority, is the last big bastion of opposition to the new political leadership in Kiev following the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovich on Saturday.

Part of Russia's Black Sea fleet is based in Crimea, in the port of Sevastopol

Ukraine's new leaders have been voicing alarm over signs of separatism there. The seizure of the building was confirmed by acting interior minister Arsen Avakov, who said the attackers had automatic weapons and machine guns.

"Provocateurs are on the march. It is the time for cool heads," he said on Facebook.

About 100 police were gathered in front of the parliament building. The streets around the parliament were mostly empty apart from people going to work.

The regional prime minister said he had spoken to the people inside the building by telephone but they had not made any demands or said why they were inside. They had promised to call him back but had not done so, he said.

RUSSIAN WARNINGS

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ignored calls by some ethnic Russians in Crimea to reclaim the territory handed to then Soviet Ukraine by Soviet Communist leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1954.

The United States says any Russian military action would be a grave mistake.

But Russia's foreign ministry said in a statement that Moscow would defend the rights of its compatriots and react without compromise to any violation of those rights.

It expressed concern about "large-scale human rights violations", attacks and vandalism in the former Soviet republic.

Ethnic Tatars who support Ukraine's new leaders and pro-Russia separatists had confronted each other outside the regional parliament on Wednesday.

Yanukovich was toppled after three months of unrest led by protesters in Kiev. He is now on the run being sought by the new authorities for murder in connection with the deaths of around 100 people during the conflict.

Crimea is the only region of Ukraine where ethnic Russians dominate in numbers, although many ethnic Ukrainians in other eastern areas speak Russian as their first language.

The Tatars, a Turkic ethnic group, were victimised by Soviet dictator Josef Stalin in World War Two and deported en masse to Soviet Central Asia in 1944 on suspicion of collaborating with Nazi Germany.

Tens of thousands of them returned to their homeland after Ukraine gained independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991.

Offline Robert0288

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #123 on: February 27, 2014, 03:51:21 »
Quote
Ukraine's acting president calls on Russian forces in Crimea not to leave naval base27 Feb 2014
Highlight:
SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — Ukraine's acting president has warned Russian forces not to leave their naval base in the Crimea region after gunmen seized government buildings in the regional capital.
President Oleksandr Turchynov said: "Any movements of troops, especially with troops outside that territory will be considered military aggression."……


Source: http://www.startribune.com/world/247435411.html

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Re: Ukraine - Superthread
« Reply #124 on: February 27, 2014, 05:31:11 »
Yes, indeed, the strategic view (big hand, small map) is fairly simple: South & East to Russia, North & West to Europe. The local (tactical) view is, as always, more detailed, more nuanced and much more complex.

I'm guessing the Presidents Putin and Obama and Chancellor Merkel are all strategic folks ... only too happy to sweep the details aside and leave the cleanup to others.


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as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
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