Author Topic: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF  (Read 9664 times)

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Offline S.M.A.

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Now there's something you don't see everyday: Japan trying to sell a maritime patrol aircraft to the UK armed forces. Please note another thread on Japan's recent move to lift the ban on arms exports.

Reuters

Quote
Exclusive: Japan seeks to sell sub-hunting jet to UK as Abe pushes arms exports
BY TIM KELLY AND NOBUHIRO KUBO
TOKYO Wed Jan 7, 2015 9:27am EST

(Reuters) - Japan is asking Britain to buy its P-1 submarine-hunting jet in a deal that could top $1 billion, a major step in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to arms exports after decades of self-imposed restrictions, people with knowledge of the proposal said.

Britain has not formally decided it will buy new maritime patrol planes, having canceled an order for nine built by BAE Systems in 2010 due to delays and cost over-runs, and the P-1, made by Kawasaki Heavy Industries, would face stiff competition from Boeing's P-8 Poseidon, the three sources told Reuters.

Japanese officials raised the issue of London buying the P-1 to replace the British-made Hawker Siddeley Nimrod, which was retired in 2011, when they met their UK counterparts to discuss defense-equipment cooperation at the Farnborough Air Show near London in July, the sources said.

(...SNIPPED)

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Offline Colin P

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2015, 10:50:46 »
Talking about this elsewhere, it could be a good move for the UK as it would also allow long range deployment of standoff weapons.

Offline Spencer100

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2015, 17:48:52 »
It would be nice to see some competition to the P-9 when it our time to buy.  (if ever).  That plane is bigger than the P-9 I saw a picture of the two together. 

Although my option would be a home growth militarized CS-100 and an international competition for the mission system.  Lockheed needs a product to sell in the future after decades of the P-3.  I know this would not make the "off the shelf" people happy but I think this one area we as a country could do well.  I am not one to say Let's build the Arrow II. 

Offline Dimsum

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2015, 19:07:35 »
It would be nice to see some competition to the P-9 when it our time to buy.  (if ever).  That plane is bigger than the P-9 I saw a picture of the two together. 

Although my option would be a home growth militarized CS-100 and an international competition for the mission system.  Lockheed needs a product to sell in the future after decades of the P-3.  I know this would not make the "off the shelf" people happy but I think this one area we as a country could do well.  I am not one to say Let's build the Arrow II.

I'm assuming you mean the P-8 Poseidon as opposed to the "P-9". 

As for the home-grown LRPA, what makes you think that market is better for domestic production than Fighters or Fixed Wing SAR?
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Offline Colin P

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2015, 19:19:20 »
From what I gather we are good at putting together the software and hardware in the back

Offline Spencer100

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2015, 23:09:05 »
We have an airframe and manufacturer already. If Boeing can take 737 and make a P-8.  I bet some Canadian companies could do the same.  We have done before (yes decades ago)  All it would take is leadership, I know something we are in short supply. 

Boeing is already marketing a Bombardier Challenger 605 with the P-8 suite.  I say go one step further with the CS 100.  I think the weapons bay would the trickiest part and the integration the next.  This would also dovetail with the government's current plan to buy Canadian or get the most benefit for Canadian industry (right or wrong)

I know it will never happen, just a thought I had, as something we could realistically do unlike the Arrow II pipe dream and the like.

Please don't flame me too hard  :o

Offline Dimsum

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2015, 03:28:53 »
We have an airframe and manufacturer already. If Boeing can take 737 and make a P-8.  I bet some Canadian companies could do the same.  We have done before (yes decades ago)  All it would take is leadership, I know something we are in short supply. 

Boeing is already marketing a Bombardier Challenger 605 with the P-8 suite.  I say go one step further with the CS 100.  I think the weapons bay would the trickiest part and the integration the next.  This would also dovetail with the government's current plan to buy Canadian or get the most benefit for Canadian industry (right or wrong)

I know it will never happen, just a thought I had, as something we could realistically do unlike the Arrow II pipe dream and the like.

Please don't flame me too hard  :o

The reason why it wouldn't work is because the RCAF isn't a big enough customer for something like this, and if we decide to go with it anyways, each airframe would be prohibitively expensive once you factor in the research and development.  Also, we would be in direct competition with Boeing's and any other manufacturer's proposals for any foreign orders.  The profit just isn't there.

Similar arguments can be made about the Arrow back in the day, and that newfangled Viking Air Buffalo proposal for FWSAR.
Philip II of Macedon to Spartans (346 BC):  "You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city."

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Offline GR66

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2015, 09:07:27 »
The reason why it wouldn't work is because the RCAF isn't a big enough customer for something like this, and if we decide to go with it anyways, each airframe would be prohibitively expensive once you factor in the research and development.  Also, we would be in direct competition with Boeing's and any other manufacturer's proposals for any foreign orders.  The profit just isn't there.

Similar arguments can be made about the Arrow back in the day, and that newfangled Viking Air Buffalo proposal for FWSAR.

In my opinion you're right that it would be economically unsound to try to have a Canadian competitor to the P-8.  That's a product that is extremely expensive and the market is very small.  Even major powers like the UK are cutting similar programs in order to save money.  The better bet would be to support a less-capable but much cheaper alternative to the P-8.  There is a much bigger worldwide market of countries that have MPA requirements but that don't have the deep pockets required for P-8s.  This is a market in which a Canadian manufacturer could possibly succeed.   


Offline Colin P

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2015, 11:14:24 »
I believe they tried that with the Dash-7 with limited success

Offline Eye In The Sky

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2015, 13:23:03 »
I am not a fan of a 2 engine platform for a MPA or MMA (that is primarily intended for MPA).  I'm no expert BUT from an end-user perspective I like the 4 engine platform for a variety of reasons.  As an example, I like the odds of being able to RTB better if you are out in the middle of BFN and you get a flat tire.  Much better to still have 3 tires than 1 IMO.

I am also not in agreement with the P-8 not having a MAD.   :2c:

The last "made in Canada" from scratch MPA happened MANY years ago and from a cost perspective from 'initial idea to the fleet in line Sqn service', I'd like to know what those costs would be in todays terms.  I'd think the way the 107 was replaced with the 140 makes some sense - why reinvent the wheel or try to make a wheel roll differently.

I don't know if there is a valid reason/benefit to 'start from scratch' with an all-Canadian MPA to replace the '140 - assuming the fleet size would stay the same or even shrink as seems to be the way these days. 

- 33 107s were built, 31 survived everything except the chopping block. 
- 24 140s were initially ordered to replace the Argus (which Mr Trudeaus' government shrunk to 18), which will be shrunk to 14 once AIMP is complete. 
- Who knows what # they will come up with the replace the 14 remaining airframes when that time comes, if they even replace them.  Maybe we will make the same mistake the RAF was forced to make.

Personally, I would be interested in seeing something like a Maritime version of the C-130J, for a whole variety of reasons...

Last comment; IMO using a version of the Dash 8 as a MPA is a waste of time and money.  It isn't and can't be a real MPA in my books.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2015, 13:44:31 by Eye In The Sky »
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Offline Colin P

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2015, 13:52:46 »
In a perfect world we would be looking at a slow replacement of the Aurora fleet with some of the new contenders, running both until the Air frames are done. Massive fleet renewals are a bad idea and subject to political interference. An ongoing replacement programs in blocks of 5 or so means that we continuously have modern equipment.

Offline Eye In The Sky

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2015, 14:05:49 »
In a perfect world we would be looking at a slow replacement of the Aurora fleet with some of the new contenders, running both until the Air frames are done. Massive fleet renewals are a bad idea and subject to political interference. An ongoing replacement programs in blocks of 5 or so means that we continuously have modern equipment.

Training, crewing, maintaining would be fairly significant challenges to the slow replacement, but if we are dreaming of this perfect world... 8)

If the Seaking/Cyclone gig doesn't support your post, I don't know what else would though!
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Offline Dimsum

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2015, 19:09:46 »
In a perfect world we would be looking at a slow replacement of the Aurora fleet with some of the new contenders, running both until the Air frames are done. Massive fleet renewals are a bad idea and subject to political interference. An ongoing replacement programs in blocks of 5 or so means that we continuously have modern equipment.

Pretty much how the RAAF is going to handle the P-8 Poseidon and MQ-4C Triton integration with the AP-3Cs, from what I understand. 
Philip II of Macedon to Spartans (346 BC):  "You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city."

Reply:  "If."

Offline GR66

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2015, 19:20:42 »
...

I don't know if there is a valid reason/benefit to 'start from scratch' with an all-Canadian MPA to replace the '140 - assuming the fleet size would stay the same or even shrink as seems to be the way these days. 

- 33 107s were built, 31 survived everything except the chopping block. 
- 24 140s were initially ordered to replace the Argus (which Mr Trudeaus' government shrunk to 18), which will be shrunk to 14 once AIMP is complete. 
- Who knows what # they will come up with the replace the 14 remaining airframes when that time comes, if they even replace them.  Maybe we will make the same mistake the RAF was forced to make.

...

I'd be OK with a somewhat less capable, domestic MPA IF the trade-off in capability/price resulted in an INCREASE in numbers.  Rather than following the above path and ending up with 6 or 8 expensive P-8's would it not be better instead to have 12 x Q400's and 4 x P-8's?  With a coastline our size there comes a certain point where numbers begin to matter more than individual quality.  No matter how much better a P-8 may be than a Q400, if you don't have enough to cover your coastline then they can't do the job.

In my dream world I'd have an ongoing contract to purchase one Q400 per year and maintain a fleet of 20 aircraft.  Every 5 years you implement a new Block of upgrades. 

Offline Eye In The Sky

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #14 on: January 09, 2015, 19:58:51 »
Just curious if you are familiar with LRP Sqn type of ops/tasking or ever crewed a MPA before.  Just getting a sense of where you are coming from before replying.
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Offline Colin P

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Re: Japan trying to sell Kawasaki P1 sub hunter aircraft to British RAF
« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2015, 10:36:27 »
Training, crewing, maintaining would be fairly significant challenges to the slow replacement, but if we are dreaming of this perfect world... 8)

If the Seaking/Cyclone gig doesn't support your post, I don't know what else would though!

Yet the civilian world struggles through this same issue with results. Our current fleet renewal system is borked beyond belief unless they are willing to toss it and sole contract as they did with the C-17, Chinook and C130J. To be fair who would have ever though Sikorsky could not build the helicopter they said they could?