Author Topic: US Presidency Post Donald Trump  (Read 5594 times)

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Offline QV

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US Presidency Post Donald Trump
« on: January 17, 2020, 13:45:18 »
Iran was more or less winning the asymmetrical fight, they were using proxies, mostly with poor Afghans and others to fight in die for a pittance, their Iranian leaders more or less safe. By this action the US has said, that your no longer safe outside your borders, making Command and Control of their proxies far more difficult and dangerous. Coupled with mounting sanctions, raising domestic issues, Iran may find it difficult to both lead and pay for these proxies, meaning they won't operate with a common goal. As long as Trump is willing to offer a political solution to the Iranian leadership, coupled with an aggressive response posture and continued sanctions, we may very well see meaningful change within the power structures of Iran. What I have found interesting is how quickly the Clerics and the government blamed the IRGC for both the shooting the airliner down and the coverup of the blunder. They know the people want blood and are forcing the IRGC to put up it's own sacrificial goats in order to save the Government/clerics from the wrath. I suspect there are many palace intrigues going on and lot of sleepless nights for the leadership. If Trump gets re-elected, they are going to be very worried.

A country like Iran being very worried of a re-elected Trump is all the indication many should need to vote Trump this November.   


Offline Baz

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2020, 14:09:26 »
A country like Iran being very worried of a re-elected Trump is all the indication many should need to vote Trump this November.   

It's a high risk high reward strategy.  If you're comfortable that the risk is worth the reward then yes you would want him re-elected.  If you're more risk adverse maybe not so much.

Offline QV

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2020, 14:14:12 »
It's a high risk high reward strategy.  If you're comfortable that the risk is worth the reward then yes you would want him re-elected.  If you're more risk adverse maybe not so much.

I suppose it depends on what you'd consider higher risk; appeasement or deterrence.  Which just brings us back to foreign policy. 

Offline PPCLI Guy

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2020, 15:48:10 »
A country like Iran being very worried of a re-elected Trump is all the indication many should need to vote Trump this November.   

How about the other 180 countires that are also worried?

Bam-bam is interesting as a troddler - a great character.  Bam-bam the drunk wife-beater?  Not so much.

Note - This is a metaphor.  I know he doesnt drink - not sure about Aderall.  As far as I know he doesnt beat wives - he just routinely changes them.
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2020, 16:27:58 »
I am worried about the next socialist President after Trump. We cant afford the price tag of a green new deal or carbon taxes disrupting the economy.

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2020, 20:27:05 »
I am worried about the next socialist President after Trump. We cant afford the price tag of a green new deal or carbon taxes disrupting the economy.

For all intents and purposes (and by most US conservatives' standards these days) Teddy Roosevelt would be considered a "socialist" albeit he was a Republican. That didn't turn out so bad, did it?

 ;D
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Offline Weinie

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2020, 20:38:39 »
For all intents and purposes (and by most US conservatives' standards these days) Teddy Roosevelt would be considered a "socialist" albeit he was a Republican. That didn't turn out so bad, did it?

 ;D

Surely you are not comparing Teddy Roosevelt and the New Deal with T6's concerns about the havoc that a Bernie Saunders or clone would unleash on the US economy. That would turn out bad, wouldn't it?
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2020, 20:50:03 »
Surely you are not comparing Teddy Roosevelt and the New Deal with T6's concerns about the havoc that a Bernie Saunders or clone would unleash on the US economy. That would turn out bad, wouldn't it?

FDR was the 'New Deal' guy. I'm no Economist, but it would be hard to imagine a financial crisis as serious as the Great Depression of the Dirty Thirties ever being possible again, thank Gawd....

20% unemployment would be almost impossible to achieve these days with the global supply chains so inter-dependent:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal
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Offline Colin P

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2020, 20:58:48 »
A highly infectious plague running rampant in SE Asia might create temporary unemployment in those numbers, with a slow switch to manufactured goods taking time to correct for such. Such a plague would have to more or less shut down much of the marine shipping traffic and Air service, both freight and passenger.

Offline Weinie

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2020, 21:11:06 »
FDR was the 'New Deal' guy. I'm no Economist, but it would be hard to imagine a financial crisis as serious as the Great Depression of the Dirty Thirties ever being possible again, thank Gawd....

20% unemployment would be almost impossible to achieve these days with the global supply chains so inter-dependent:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal

Perhaps you missed my point. For FJAG to equate Roosevelt with socialism because of the policies he enacted under the New deal program is like saying that Jesus can't swim because he walked on water.
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2020, 21:16:09 »
Perhaps you missed my point. For FJAG to equate Roosevelt with socialism because of the policies he enacted under the New deal program is like saying that Jesus can't swim because he walked on water.

But Roosevelt was a socialist. A great big one. With a fondness for centralized state control of everything, like a dictatorship:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_Franklin_D._Roosevelt
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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2020, 21:17:36 »
FDR was the 'New Deal' guy. I'm no Economist, but it would be hard to imagine a financial crisis as serious as the Great Depression of the Dirty Thirties ever being possible again, thank Gawd....

20% unemployment would be almost impossible to achieve these days with the global supply chains so inter-dependent:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal

I was talking about Teddy Roosevelt: Trust busting; railroad controlling; pure food and drugs; conservation; imperialist yet Nobel Peace Prize winning; Panama Canal building -- that guy. A real progressive (aka "socialist") Republican (back in the days when Republicans actually did something for the country's benefit rather than for their own.)

FDR was great too. I just wanted to establish the fact that "socialists" come in all stripes and are not necessarily the devil's spawn. (p.s. I don't like Bernie one bit - I prefer Larry David  ;D)

 :stirpot:

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Offline Weinie

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2020, 21:29:11 »
But Roosevelt was a socialist. A great big one. With a fondness for centralized state control of everything, like a dictatorship:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_Franklin_D._Roosevelt

Historian George H. Nash argues:

Unlike the "moderate," internationalist, largely eastern bloc of Republicans who accepted (or at least acquiesced in) some of the "Roosevelt Revolution" and the essential premises of President Truman's foreign policy, the Republican Right at heart was counterrevolutionary. Anti-collectivist, anti-Communist, anti-New Deal, passionately committed to limited government, free market economics, and congressional (as opposed to executive) prerogatives, the G.O.P. conservatives were obliged from the start to wage a constant two-front war: against liberal Democrats from without and "me-too" Republicans from within.


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Offline Weinie

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2020, 21:38:04 »
I was talking about Teddy Roosevelt: Trust busting; railroad controlling; pure food and drugs; conservation; imperialist yet Nobel Peace Prize winning; Panama Canal building -- that guy. A real progressive (aka "socialist") Republican (back in the days when Republicans actually did something for the country's benefit rather than for their own.)

FDR was great too. I just wanted to establish the fact that "socialists" come in all stripes and are not necessarily the devil's spawn. (p.s. I don't like Bernie one bit - I prefer Larry David  ;D)

 :stirpot:
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Offline Weinie

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Re: Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2020, 21:39:37 »
I was talking about Teddy Roosevelt: Trust busting; railroad controlling; pure food and drugs; conservation; imperialist yet Nobel Peace Prize winning; Panama Canal building -- that guy. A real progressive (aka "socialist") Republican (back in the days when Republicans actually did something for the country's benefit rather than for their own.)

FDR was great too. I just wanted to establish the fact that "socialists" come in all stripes and are not necessarily the devil's spawn. (p.s. I don't like Bernie one bit - I prefer Larry David  ;D)

 :stirpot:

My apologies FJAG. I was one Roosevelt too late
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Offline ModlrMike

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Re: US Presidency Post Donald Trump
« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2020, 00:07:56 »
This discussion would be so much more interesting if the Democrats actually had someone electable to put forward.
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Re: US Presidency Post Donald Trump
« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2020, 00:30:09 »
This discussion would be so much more interesting if the Democrats actually had someone electable to put forward.

Unfortunately I have to agree with you on that one. There are several folks there that appeal to the Democrats (and IMHO who would be a better president than the incumbent-not a high bar) but my guess is they don't appeal to the middle of the road/go in either direction types. Last time there was a "anyone but Hillary" movement out there amongst the undecided. It will be interesting to see if an "anyone but Trump" movement will gel this time amongst those that were gobsmacked in '16 when DJT won.

 :dunno:
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: US Presidency Post Donald Trump
« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2020, 00:36:53 »
In US elections its all about the economy. Trump's policies have freed it from the onerous Obama rules. Personally I expect 4 more years of President Trump. None of the current crop of Democrats is likely to unseat him. Already Democrat leaders are predicting a contested convention that might see a Hillary or Michele Obama. When that happens I will get the popcorn out.

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: US Presidency Post Donald Trump
« Reply #18 on: January 18, 2020, 12:04:27 »
>if the Democrats actually had someone electable to put forward.

Trump is so egregious that if he hadn't actually been elected, I would not have believed he could be.  I would like to believe that with an impeachment pinned to his tail he could not be re-elected, but the weak slate of Democratic front-runners is the least of the party's problems.  If the DNC and some media agencies (eg. CNN) are thought to be tilting the table for one of the progressives (Sanders, Warren) and then later on against the progressive in favour of the centrist (Biden), pissed-off voter defections to a third party candidate (eg. Green) can be the difference in key states just as in 2016.
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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: US Presidency Post Donald Trump
« Reply #19 on: January 18, 2020, 12:57:06 »
Janet Daley is a senior columnist with the Daily Telegraph in the UK.  She is an American but went to Britain as a hard-core Marxist-Leninist.  And then the Unions turned out the lights and turned off the heat and closed down the railways.  And she became a fan of Margaret Thatcher and a confirmed Tory.

She is also a Brexit supporter and has railed against the deafness of the elite.  But she has never reconciled herself to Trump.

In this article she tries to explain to a Euro-Brit audience why Trump supporters are Trump supporters and why they seem to be willing to set aside the Constitution and its Institutions.  She fears the consequences.

I am a big fan of her opinions but here I think she is wide of the mark. 

Process or Intent.

Which drives you?

My sense is that for many people Intent rules their decision making.  They pragmatically decide on a course of action based on their appreciation of the current situation to achieve their intent.  The Process, the plan, the mechanism is secondary.  I believe that that is true for the vast majority of the population to whom life happens.  They have little sense of being in control.  They deal with a world of constant change on a daily basis.

The other side of the coin are those people comfortable in Process.  Content in their sense that by conforming to, and managing, the Process, then the world is ordered, someone is in control and they, as part of the mechanism, are able to exert control.  Some people are content to believe that others know what they are doing, are in control.  Some people aspire to be in control themselves.  Still others are just content to be professional courtiers and exploit the institutions of Process for their personal benefit.

It is my further belief that the divide between Trump supporters and the Never-Trumpers is the divide between those comfortable with managing chaos through pragmatism and those more comfortable with imposing order through principles and process, between those focused on Intent and those focused on Process. 

For those focused on Intent I suggest that the US Constitution is sacred for what it promises, what it intends - to provide a society of free individuals.  At the other end of the spectrum are those that accept the Intent but don't believe that you can get there without the Process.

But when does adherence to the Process result in Illiberalism?  When does the demand for conformity to the Process, for obeisance to the institutions, for obedience to the people in office become illiberal and threaten those pragmatically inclined free individuals and their ability to achieve their own personal intents?

My belief is that the inevitable tension between those demanding order and focusing on Process and those accepting chaos and focusing on Intent has reached the point it has because those that believe in Process, by establishing themselves in dominant positions and claiming to be the masters of the institutions to which they give credit for managing the situation, have set themselves up as targets for those no longer able to achieve their Intents.  Those denied that ability are forced to work harder, with less surety of success and accept that they will struggle to meet Laszlo's hierarchy of needs.  And they end up blaming those that were claiming the credit.

Apparently the concept of the "Knowledge Economy" gained popularity in 1969. I'm sure it sounded like a good idea at the time, appealing both to people in universities and to the vanity of Westerners, residents of all those brilliant Western countries.  And if their countries were brilliant then Westerners were brilliant too.  No problem then to start shipping jobs from Canada, the US, Britain and Germany to Mexico, Spain, Poland and China.  Those brilliant Westerners could then enjoy limitless vacations in green and pleasant lands buying cheap goods from prosperous Chinese.  If only they had money to buy fuel, food, clothes and shelter. 

Getting a ration of fuel, food, clothes, shelter and life from other people, no matter how well Intentioned they are, even if they are sanctioned through membership in an institution, is not a satisfactory answer.

Sooner or later people, individuals, will reassert themselves, pragmatically opting to do that which allows them to achieve their intent.

Democracy, or populism if you prefer, like capitalism, is not something that is imposed.  It is a base state, a chaotic state, upon which order struggles to be imposed by Process.  But imposing order demands energy and sooner or later people run out of the energy to maintain the order and entropy prevails.  Chaos reasserts itself.  Democracy, unqualified, unfettered, uncontrolled recurs.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/18/teflon-trump-just-start-wests-post-democratic-apocalypse/



« Last Edit: January 18, 2020, 13:00:36 by Chris Pook »
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Re: US Presidency Post Donald Trump
« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2020, 13:01:38 »
>if the Democrats actually had someone electable to put forward.

Trump is so egregious that if he hadn't actually been elected, I would not have believed he could be.  I would like to believe that with an impeachment pinned to his tail he could not be re-elected, but the weak slate of Democratic front-runners is the least of the party's problems.  If the DNC and some media agencies (eg. CNN) are thought to be tilting the table for one of the progressives (Sanders, Warren) and then later on against the progressive in favour of the centrist (Biden), pissed-off voter defections to a third party candidate (eg. Green) can be the difference in key states just as in 2016.

I'm not sure that CNN and that ilk are tilting the table for progressives. Unfortunately, with all his manic and frantic activity, Trump continues to suck all the oxygen from the media's room. They are paying so much attention to his ramblings that whatever message the Democratic candidates are transmitting, is not being received by the public due to the random white noise out there. I may dislike Trump --in fact a lot--but I have to admit, he knows how to make everything be all about himself. (Just take a look at the administration's recent incentive to role back Michelle Obama's healthy school lunch programs in favour of the type of foods Trump prefers. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-administration-announces-proposals-loosen-guidelines-school-meals/story?id=68361208&cid=clicksource_4380645_5_film_strip_icymi_hed) That's not going to stop anytime soon.
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Re: US Presidency Post Donald Trump
« Reply #21 on: January 18, 2020, 13:10:02 »
Janet Daley ... In this article she tries to explain to a Euro-Brit audience why Trump supporters are Trump supporters and why they seem to be willing to set aside the Constitution and its Institutions.  She fears the consequences.

I am a big fan of her opinions but here I think she is wide of the mark. 

Interesting. Like you, I think she is wide of the mark. However, you and I don't often agree. Why do you think she's off the mark?

 :cheers:
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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: US Presidency Post Donald Trump
« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2020, 13:39:21 »
Interesting. Like you, I think she is wide of the mark. However, you and I don't often agree. Why do you think she's off the mark?

 :cheers:

Short form? I don't fear the apocalypse.  My sense is that events like the Brexit elections, the Scottish referendum, the Catalonian rebellion, the Yellow Jacket riots, the Greek and Spanish and Italian and German ...... ad nauseam .... all are contributing to establishing a new equilibrium.  That will involve redirecting the course of some institutions, the fall of others and the creation of still others. 

If the United Kingdom is an institution it will survive, just as the Communist Party of China has survived, by reinventing itself.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see a United Kingdom comprising a devolved array of regional governments and free ports more akin to the Isle of Man and Channel Islands than to the old Westminster model.  Equally I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some accommodation between English Ireland and the United Kingdom on the basis that Gaelic has never caught on over there any more than it has in Scotland.  Wolfe Tone failed to join Ireland to revolutionary France.  The EU succeeded for a while but I firmly believe that language trumps all else in the culture stakes.

In the US - they too are slapping their institutions around a bit.  Shaking them down and moving them around. 

There is a book.  "The Cousins' Wars" by Kevin Phillips.  It argues that the Jacobean Wars of Britain (also known as the English Civil Wars), the Glorious Revolution, the American Revolution and the American Civil War are all of a kind with all of them having a trans-Atlantic connection.  I am inclined to believe that that connection still exists and the current tumult is a continuation of those struggles - if a more polite version.  (I am also inclined to see them not so anglo-centrically but as a continuation of the broader Huguenot and other religious struggles on the Continent). 

The point of contention, as I tried to suggest above, is how to manage chaos, who gets to manage it, at what level?

Personally I don't see the debate, or the struggle ending.

And I'm content with that.

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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: US Presidency Post Donald Trump
« Reply #23 on: January 18, 2020, 15:14:12 »
I should have written more clearly.  I meant that right now CNN appears to be tilting the table for one progressive (Warren) against the other progressive (Sanders).  There was a blow-up over questions asked in the recent debate, which were classic examples of embedding a premise not proven (the premise being Warren's version of Sanders's past comments about the hurdles faced by women in a presidential race).  Sanders supporters are pissed off.  Already too many people suspect that the establishment (DNC and Democrat-favouring media) is playing games to fix the outcome: initially, to ensure the more acceptable of the two progressive front-runners beats the other in case Biden doesn't look electable; later, to ensure Biden is picked if he does look electable.  If the eventual Democrat nominee loses because some voters stayed home, will it be more reasonable to blame them for not taking one for the team, or more reasonable to blame the establishment players who angered the voters?

The problems with the messages the Democratic candidates are transmitting are the content.  People aren't tuned out because Trump is a distraction; people are tuned out because the candidates are all talking to small sub-factions of potential Democratic voters and most of their ideas are so impractical as to be ridiculous.  But, best that people go on blaming Trump, so that the messaging goes uncorrected and the next administration is Republican.
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Re: US Presidency Post Donald Trump
« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2020, 20:32:46 »
Short form? I don't fear the apocalypse. ...

Perhaps that's because you, like me, never had to live through one. My early years were spent in immediate post-war Germany and I heard more than one story from my aunts (most of my uncles never made it through the war) and parents about what wartime and interwar Germany was like. I expect the same for people who experience living in Vietnam during the 50s to 70s, Cambodia during the Khmer days; Ukraine post WW1; the Rwandan Civil War; the Yugoslavian breakup; or even Venezuela today. Here's a little list of what chaos and misery can look like:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebellions#1980s

There is a book.  "The Cousins' Wars" by Kevin Phillips.  It argues that the Jacobean Wars of Britain (also known as the English Civil Wars), the Glorious Revolution, the American Revolution and the American Civil War are all of a kind with all of them having a trans-Atlantic connection.  I am inclined to believe that that connection still exists and the current tumult is a continuation of those struggles - if a more polite version.  (I am also inclined to see them not so anglo-centrically but as a continuation of the broader Huguenot and other religious struggles on the Continent). 

The point of contention, as I tried to suggest above, is how to manage chaos, who gets to manage it, at what level?

Personally I don't see the debate, or the struggle ending.

And I'm content with that.

I'm not. But like that part in the alcoholic's crede, I've recognized the things that I can't change so I don't get heartburn over that anymore. I do agree that many of the conflicts are based on religious (and/or racial) differences making people intolerant of each other but I think that fundamentally it's an economic struggle where the have's fight hard to keep and to increase what they have while the have-nots do the best they can to survive until the situation becomes intolerable. Modern communications capabilities make the sharing of grievances simpler and heightens the level of frustration. When the antivax movement can convince so many people to do stupid things in the face of science, imagine how easily a real grievance can be circulated and adopted by the masses.

The trouble is that true democracy only works well in small societies where direct participation is possible. The larger a given society gets the more it needs to rely on representative government which automatically means there will be winners who feel included and losers who feel excluded.

I think in Trumpism we have a unique confluence of Haves who are generally of Republican ideals and who see his administration fostering their ability to grow what they have; Evangelicals who feel they are losing what was once Christian control over the morals of the country; and Economic Have-nots (victims of the Rust Belt and others) who are searching for someone who will bring back the 1950s industrial powerhouse and solid jobs. On some issues, their interests coexist, on others they don't.

You can't realistically micro-manage a large country or even a province--it's simply too hard to handle all the details. What you have to do is set up a system whereby large numbers of small communities--neighbourhood by neighbourhood--manage themselves (and the chaos) under a stable framework. The way that I see the differences between Democrats and Republicans (or conservatives v liberals) is that Democrats favour a very detailed framework and Republicans favour a very loose one.

The problem with Trump is that he is undermining that stable framework. Equally important is that there will come a point, where his supporters will stop pretending that their interests are in alignment. The only question is: will the Democrats be able to offer an alternative vision that will pull their supporters and the pragmatic middle together? Or will there be a power struggle at the various neighbourhood levels?

 :cheers:
Illegitimi non carborundum
Semper debeatis percutis ictu primo
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