Author Topic: North Korea (Superthread)  (Read 428442 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline cplcaldwell

  • Full Member
  • *****
  • -70
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 417
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #25 on: October 11, 2006, 11:42:05 »
Quote from: von Grognard, Field Marshal of the Imperial Mobile Infantry
From a viewpoint from some guy on cbc last night (Can't remember his name, but he's dealt with NK quite often)...


Patrick Brown?

Clip online at cbc.ca (this link).

Requires Real Player.

Runs 13:22.

Excellent reporting, as usual, by Patrick Brown.
Ihr Racker, wollt ihr ewig leben? - Frederick the Great

Offline geo

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Legend
  • *
  • 25,765
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,643
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #26 on: October 11, 2006, 13:01:31 »
from what I have read so far, China is realy pi$$ed at N Korea.
While they do not support any kind of military action/sanction, they are applying / or intend to apply economic sanctions

Problem with economic sanctions is you're always gonna hurt the little guy
Chimo!

Offline Freddy G

  • Banned
  • Sr. Member
  • *
  • -135
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 732
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #27 on: October 11, 2006, 13:43:20 »
"This is a huge s**t sandwich and we're all going to have to take a bite."

Although Lil' Kim is quite insane, I don't think he's insane enough to try and do anything to South Korea. But I do believe if he tries anything, North Korea will become the biggest parking lot/glassfield in the history of mankind. Russia, China and the US are getting quite mad at Lil' Kim, and it's not a very smart idea to piss off the three biggest nuclear powers in the world.

As for the comparison with the Cuban missile crisis, I think there are probably already a lot of submarines (from all 3 big players... probably some other countries, too) in the area, and I'm sure the US is considering bringing one of their battlegroups a little closer--the closest is the Kitty Hawk somewhere in Japan--along with a bunch of extra subs. The problem I see is that the US military is stretched in terms of land combat, and probably couldn't fight a war in South Korea on short notice. Even Canada, Australia and other middle powers would probably not get there in time to stop Lil' Kim from taking Seoul (or destroying it) and most of the peninsula would probably be red by the time the West could mount a counter-offensive.

To quote Big Foot, "these are interesting times we live in."
My posts are my opinion alone and do not reflect any other person or group's opinion... because you can't handle the truth, and deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me to say these things.

Offline career_radio-checker

  • Hello everyone, my name is CRC and I am an army.ca - aholic.
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • 220
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 453
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #28 on: October 11, 2006, 14:16:41 »
Even Canada, Australia and other middle powers would probably not get there in time to stop Lil' Kim from taking Seoul (or destroying it) and most of the peninsula would probably be red by the time the West could mount a counter-offensive.

To quote Big Foot, "these are interesting times we live in."

That is exactly what happened in 1950 but the allies managed to push them up to the Chinese borders. But now we are talking about nuclear weapons.  Who knows what would happen? This is the one time I am listening to the little naive voice in my head and would like to leave it at that question.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2006, 14:22:31 by career_radio-checker »
How could anyone not fall in love with Canada's baby seals?... They make really good gloves.

Offline Iterator

  • Returning the favour.
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • -30
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 253
  • Identidem
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #29 on: October 11, 2006, 14:25:14 »
Does the US currently have the capacity to follow through if it did threaten North Korea?

North Korea must know that the US is in a bad spot:
   - The US is majorly tied down in Iraq.
   - There is increased pressure for the US to reinforce Afghanistan.
   - After years of saying that there will be no Draft the Republicans aren't likely to do a call up now with pending elections.

The North Koreans, and Iranians, must be marveling at the extent of the repercussions so far. "Bad North Korea! No dessert for you!". If this wasn't a real nuke test then this can hardly be a deterrent to one in the future.


A basket case economy like North Korea can't be easily influenced by embargos. Iran has seen how impractical embargos are against oil producing nations, so it can't be too upset with the prospect economic sanctions either.


The best result at the moment (besides someone on the inside hitting the nut over the head with a club) would be for China to roll over the border and then quickly hand the mess over to South Korea. Unlikely, but it would give China enormous prestige.

The US will look extremely weak if it can't influence the situation at all.
Pro Patria

Offline career_radio-checker

  • Hello everyone, my name is CRC and I am an army.ca - aholic.
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • 220
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 453
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #30 on: October 11, 2006, 14:28:53 »
Alright sorry for the double post but a word of caution:

Members of the media are amongst us and I am personally going to refrain from speculating a course of action. This site has been used in the media before and it could be quoted as a "credible" source for militaristic opinions / what the military wants to do. I see this is an extremely tense period and don't want to be part of the scare.
How could anyone not fall in love with Canada's baby seals?... They make really good gloves.

Offline Mr.Newf

  • King of the Granite Planet
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 12,335
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,642
  • Fuc*in Eh!
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #31 on: October 11, 2006, 14:29:55 »
I honestly think that the N Koreans are on the verge of doing something very, very stupid. And the responce to that will put the N Korean people in worse shape then they are now.
I am the one and only

Offline Rockhound

  • Guest
  • *
  • 0
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 4
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #32 on: October 11, 2006, 14:56:04 »
As I understand it, the DPRK made the actual decision to go nuclear 25 odd years ago - why at that time did they feel it was necessary, and what has really changed WRT the factors this original decision?  I appreciate that few in the world could actually know the real answer but their retoheric would suggest the primarary motivation is the reunification of the pennisula.  The apologists suggest it is because of Bush's pre-emptive strategy (that did not exist 25years ago).  Others suggest it is being done in order to sell them to others with a hate-on for the USA.

Could there be a hope on the part of the North Koreans that by owning nucs it take nucs off the table for the USA response options - a detente if you will, limiting all action to strictly conventional response?  Would this allow them more freedom of action with conventional force - especially now, given the demands on the USA and UK?  If the answers are in the affirmative is it likely they will be as rash as some suggest and attack the South?

If the last question is Yes - what about Iran?  This one heck of a good distraction from their activites, especially if they are further along with Nuc development than they let on (due to such a lack of intel identified in the 9-11 commission who really knows where they are?).  Would they capitalize on this?

All a bit pessimisstic, I know, but they appear to be valid questions (but then again I am not expert on such matters)

Cheers

RPC

Offline Old Guy

  • Jr. Member
  • ***
  • 230
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 89
    • JR Hume, Science Fiction & Fantasy
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #33 on: October 11, 2006, 16:20:22 »
I think North Korea is a hollow shell.  Kim's saber rattling is intended, I believe, to keep everyone off balance and to extort more aid from China and the West.  Whether he's over-stepped himself -- only time will tell.

Armies are more than mere numbers.  NK is a humanitarian disaster, getting worse by the day.  The deteriorating situation in the countryside and cities has to have an effect on the military, no matter how draconian the regime.

NK generals may be eating well, but how about the rank-and-file?  If the combat troops are getting adequate rations, what about the mechanics and other technicians needed to keep any military force in motion?  Logistically, how much combat could the NK forces sustain before they ran out of supplies?

It is probably impossible for anyone outside North Korea to imagine the extent of the horror there.  The entire country is slowly becoming a vast, open-air tomb.

Napolean is supposed to have said: "Never forget the enemy marches through the same mud." 

The mud, figuratively speaking, is becoming neck-deep on the NK side. 

In some ways, I hope I'm wrong, but I fear that I am not.

Jim

JR Hume, author of "Gehenna Station", a combat SF thriller.  Read more about it and buy the book at http://www.jrhume.com

Offline zipperhead_cop

  • Much work remains to be done before we can announce a total failure to make any progress...
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 5,866
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,206
  • Gotta kick at the darkness till it bleeds daylight
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #34 on: October 11, 2006, 16:33:10 »
I wonder if this incident is anything along the same lines as the crap Iran has been pulling?  Everybody sees the USA as overstreached, and most of Europe have distinguished themselves as self serving isolationists in the military scheme of things (Brits excepted).  There is a lot of sabre rattling going on from people who might have otherwise kept to themselves before the US was jammed up in Iraq.  Does the United States still have the same capacity to project power that it did before Iraq?  Too far out of my lane to say. 
Plus, the whole "it can't be confirmed as an actual nuke" issue is interesting.  What's to say it wasn't a big cave full of conventional explosives that were used to simulate a nuclear explosion?  If there were rumblings from NK's chums (terrorists and radical states as such) that they were not so sure if they even had nuclear technology, maybe he would want to put on a show in order to try to make him a big man again.  Seems to me that the nuclear threat is the only thing that has kept him from getting his arse handed to him for some time now.  I can't see how honking off China is a really great idea, though. 

Maybe KJI finally got his DVD version of Team America-World Police and blew a gasket? 

God loves stupid people.  That's why He made so many of them.

Of course forests contribute to climate change - you pointless, vacuous wankers.

Offline Iterator

  • Returning the favour.
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • -30
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 253
  • Identidem
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #35 on: October 11, 2006, 16:43:32 »
A massive redeployment of US forces (without actually saying they will invade) to the area has advantages:
   - This would give the US a credible excuse to do a draw down in the number of troops they have in Iraq.
   - More pressure could be added to NATO members to step up in Afghanistan so that the US can reposition forces (especially Air) to East Asia.
   - Reserve and National Guard weariness from the Iraq campaign could be mitigated with a shift in focus to containing North Korea.

With a redeployment to the area the US would also be able to bring its Navy and Air Force into the forefront and give some of the Army a short pause. And more importantly, this would put China in Cr*p or get off the pot mode. Not that that worked so well in 1950, but things have changed.

If China were to then back North Korea and call for the US not to invade (highly likely), then the US could simply not invade in the interest of world peace, leaving China fully aligned with International Crackpots man of the year, and also with an alarmingly more militarized Japan and South Korea (plus an increased US presence in say... Taiwan).

If the US redeployed to the area and China did nothing, then China would seem weak (and on its own doorstep).
Pro Patria

Offline Brad Sallows

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 50,770
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,461
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #36 on: October 11, 2006, 17:06:07 »
>The problem I see is that the US military is stretched in terms of land combat, and probably couldn't fight a war in South Korea on short notice.

The US land forces don't have to be there.  I suppose South Korea is in better shape to deal with a North Korean invasion than South Vietnam was with respect to North Vietnam in the early '70s.  If all the US does is keep sea lanes into SK open so that armaments and munitions can flow in, it will be enough.  If the US is prepared to provide naval and air support it will be more than enough.  If China wants to support NK against SK, I can't imagine why the US wouldn't immediately cease trade with China and tell them to go shop their wares in Europe.
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline paracowboy

  • I keep sayin' it...
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 225
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 4,188
  • Make The Voices Stop!
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #37 on: October 11, 2006, 17:17:07 »
anybody know what the rictor(sp) scale said about it actually being a nuke? Nuke blasts make a big shake. A REAL big shake.
...time to cull the herd.

Offline 3rd Herd

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 215
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,448
  • Cave ab homine unius libri
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #38 on: October 11, 2006, 17:24:29 »
anybody know what the rictor(sp) scale said about it actually being a nuke? Nuke blasts make a big shake. A REAL big shake.

"We're still evaluating the data, and as more data comes in, we hope to develop a clearer picture," said one official familiar with intelligence reports.
"There was a seismic event that registered about 4 on the Richter scale, but it still isn't clear if it was a nuclear test. You can get that kind of seismic reading from high explosives."

Source:U.S. doubts Korean test was nuclear, Bill Gertz, THE WASHINGTON TIMES, October 10, 2006

Map from Discovery Channel:



« Last Edit: October 11, 2006, 17:30:07 by 3rd Herd »
"if he was to be hanged for it, he told his brother, he could not accuse a man whom he believed had meant well, and whose error was one of judgment, not of intention"
Wellington

Offline Iterator

  • Returning the favour.
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • -30
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 253
  • Identidem
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #39 on: October 11, 2006, 17:43:39 »
...The US land forces don't have to be there.  I suppose South Korea is in better shape to deal with a North Korean invasion than South Vietnam was with respect to North Vietnam in the early '70s.  If all the US does is keep sea lanes into SK open so that armaments and munitions can flow in, it will be enough.  If the US is prepared to provide naval and air support it will be more than enough. ...


Yes. But so far South Korea has displayed a policy of "I don't want to die", which has certain amount of logic and a generally universal appeal to it. Both China and North Korea probably realize that.

The US needs to be able to project the capacity of complete Air and Naval superiority in the area along with a moderate Land capacity. South Korea might not commit until that is shown.

Still, having a preemptive Chinese occupation of North Korea, to prevent a US attack, adds stability to the situation. A post-emptive (:)) Chinese response would be a disaster.



As to the reality; even if not a real event, the global response has been real - and so far that response has been overwhelmingly limited.

Pro Patria

Offline GAP

  • Semper Fi
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Legend
  • *
  • 205,090
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 12,881
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #40 on: October 11, 2006, 17:47:59 »
How much of a drawdown did the US do in SK, Okinawa, and South Pacific?
Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I´m not so sure about the universe

Offline Freddy G

  • Banned
  • Sr. Member
  • *
  • -135
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 732
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #41 on: October 11, 2006, 17:51:53 »
Re: the seismic activity

I can't find the sources just yet, but I remember reading in a few of them that given some time do analyze the data, seismologists could tell whether this was nuclear or conventional--nuclear explosions have a different seismic signature, apparently.
My posts are my opinion alone and do not reflect any other person or group's opinion... because you can't handle the truth, and deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me to say these things.

Offline AJFitzpatrick

  • Distracted by shiny things
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • 12,888
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 510
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #42 on: October 11, 2006, 18:01:28 »
My understanding is that the only positive confirmation of a nuclear explosion is the detection of the gaseous decay products. The USAF is flying those missions as we speak.

Offline warspite

  • Sworn enemy of squirrel's everywhere
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • -180
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 340
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #43 on: October 11, 2006, 19:13:17 »
If China wants to support NK against SK, I can't imagine why the US wouldn't immediately cease trade with China and tell them to go shop their wares in Europe.
Not sure if that's really an option. There is a heck of a lot of trade going on. True it is mostly China benefiting from the trade but the U.S just can't find a new source of McDonald's toys overnight and shut down trade. They would never get away with it, kinda like we couldn't get away with shutting down trade with the U.S.( if only on a lesser scale)

And just a question here but if N. Korea declared war on the States couldn't the U.S. just place a fleet offshore and tomahawk the N. Korean infrastructure into oblivion as a lesson about who N. Korea is dealing with?

Offline Brad Sallows

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 50,770
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,461
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #44 on: October 11, 2006, 19:15:45 »
>Yes. But so far South Korea has displayed a policy of "I don't want to die", which has certain amount of logic and a generally universal appeal to it.

Ultimately that is a SK problem, not a US problem.

If the US pushes NK, then NK is going to have to find a way to push back against the US.  They don't share a land border, so what does that leave?
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline warspite

  • Sworn enemy of squirrel's everywhere
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • -180
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 340
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #45 on: October 11, 2006, 19:18:48 »
If the US pushes NK, then NK is going to have to find a way to push back against the US.  They don't share a land border, so what does that leave?
China? ???


Offline Brad Sallows

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 50,770
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,461
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #46 on: October 11, 2006, 19:19:26 »
>They would never get away with it, kinda like we couldn't get away with shutting down trade with the U.S.( if only on a lesser scale)

Never get away with it?  Why not?  Cheap housewares and other garage sale fodder are not at the top of the list of national interests.
That which does not kill me has made a grave tactical error.

"It is a damned heavy blow; but whining don't help."

Despair is a sin.

Offline Iterator

  • Returning the favour.
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • -30
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 253
  • Identidem
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #47 on: October 11, 2006, 19:23:38 »
Agreed. Similar to Iraq's Scudding of Israel.

From a Canadian perspective - we should be ensuring that the West Coast is at least as equipped as the East Coast in terms of Navy, Air Force, SCTF, etc.

Also time for a renewed appreciation for ASW and missile defence.


Edit: Added Missile Defence
Pro Patria

Offline geo

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Legend
  • *
  • 25,765
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,643
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #48 on: October 11, 2006, 19:29:25 »
My problem with all of this is that if gives some other countries all sorts of wacky ideas.

Iran must be marveling at how everyone is standing up and paying attention to NK without taking military steps against them................  now try to discourage Iran from developing it's nuclear capacity.

Ain't going to happen.
Chimo!

Offline warspite

  • Sworn enemy of squirrel's everywhere
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • -180
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 340
Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #49 on: October 11, 2006, 19:38:48 »
>They would never get away with it, kinda like we couldn't get away with shutting down trade with the U.S.( if only on a lesser scale)

Never get away with it?  Why not?  Cheap housewares and other garage sale fodder are not at the top of the list of national interests.
http://stat.wto.org/CountryProfile/WSDBCountryPFView.aspx?Language=E&Country=CN,US
The U.S as of 2004 gets 13.8% of it's imports from China. That's a lot of garage sale fodder. ;D
Why in fact it's $210,521,208,000 dollars worth of garage sale fodder.